Sunday 17th June

rossom

4.40 Doncaster

Collateral Damage 12/1 NAP

Its so obvious that Tim Easterby's 9 year old has been the subject of some "tender handling" to say the least and I think today is the day that he will be unleashed with a return a Doncaster course where he has registered a win at before. Formerly a very talented animal, Collateral Damage started the 2010 season being a 96 rated animal and although winless since 2009 he's clearly incredibly well handicapped off a mark of 69 - the lowest of his entire career. His last win came off a mark of 92 in November 2009 and he is now a full 23lb lower than that mark making him thrown in on his old form. More recently than that, he came a good 3rd in a Class 3 event on ground that probably wasn't ideal at Catterick last May off a mark of 82 and although he probably isn't the force of old he doesn't have to be win this. In relation to this year, I would suggest anyone watch his last efforts in particular his two most recent 4ths at Beverley and you'll understand what I mean. On both occasions, then jockey David Allan basically tried to find as much trouble as he possibly could and never once went for the whip as he started flying late on under hands and heels riding. Those efforts came off marks of 75 & 73 and I'm pretty sure he would be more than capable of winning off those marks but I think connections have gotten him down to a mark where he could possibly reel of a sequence of victories.

In relation to todays contest, Collateral Damage contests a Class 4 contest which is a far throw from the Class 2 contests he was contesting earlier in his career. The three main reasons why I think connections will strike today are he is on a career low mark, he returns to a course where he has winning form and most importantly is the ground. The current soft conditions are amazingly going to be the first time he has encountered ground that hasn't contained the description 'good' since 2009. The last twice he has raced on soft ground or worse were actually his last two wins so thats a massive eye catching note in my eyes. Duran Fentiman takes the ride for the first time since 2009 as he gets in off a featherweight of 8-5 and both look extremely positive notes. Another key factor in my eyes is he has 3 more entries over the next 5 days which definitely gives potential to my theory that connections are looking to notch up a very quick sequence of victories. Trainer Tim Easterby is in good form at present with two winners yesterday and he clearly has his horses in good order. Although its clearly not ideal that he is winless in 31 months, he is clearly extremely well weighted and the soft ground should be the making of him. I'm having a rather large e/w on him as I'm pretty confident that he'll be going all out for victory today and I think he could prove extremely difficult to beat if Fentiman lets the foot off the breaks today.

the groutch

tomorrow I will be backing one horse

3:15 Cork - Inxile (currently 5/2 PP)

rossom

3.35 Doncaster

Damika 12/1

If his draw in stall 6 isn't a grave issue, which we should find out in the race before this, and the effect of his visor hasn't worn off after its initial success then I think David Browns 9 year old could be extremely difficult to beat. After a string of duck egg, the introduction of a first time visor for Damika proved the oracle as he absolutely scooted home 3 days ago at Nottingham in a Class 2 event by 2L. Off a mark of 82, he made all after bagging the stands rail and he was very impressive. He races here with a 6lb penalty and I'd say he is well in at the weights as I'd say he's due to go up another few lbs for his last impressive win. Although that was his first win in nearly two years, he won off 94 in 2010 and on that evidence he certainly looks rather feasibly handicapped. He's dropped back into a Class 3 event which is a positive and the race he won the other day certainly looked pretty tough. The soft ground should be no concern at all as he has won on it before and he's also tactically versatile having won from being held up on occasions before. I think 12/1 definitely overstates his chances considering he has won two on the bounce twice before and if the draw isn't detrimental I can definitely see him going close to landing this competitive event.

rossom

2.50 Salisbury

Titus Gent 8/1

Put him up two starts back when running out an impressive winner on the AW off a mark of 79 from only a 2lb lower mark and I think you've got to ignore his last start. That day he was stepped into a Class 2 event off a mark of 83 and I don't think he handled Epsom's undulating track overly well. Todays race should be much easier as he drops back into a Class 4 handicap and a mark of 81 certainly doesn't seem beyond him. I think its very significant that Titus Gent is 2-2 in ground softer than good in his career, which he gets today, and 8/1 looks very overpriced. Raul Da Silva again takes off a very handy 5lb from Jeremy Gask's 7 year old and I expect him to go rather close to landing this event.

3.50 Cork

Remember Alexander 8/1

If staying the 1m4f trip, I think Remember Alexander could be extremely difficult to beat in this Group 3 event. Up until now, this filly has never raced beyond 1m and although breeding doesn't really scream out for this extra step up in trip she has shaped as if it would suit and Jessie Harrington certainly must think she has a good chance of getting it which is good enough for me. To my eyes, Remember Alexander has by far the best form in her book to date. As a 2 year old, she finished 2L behind Power on debut before sauntering to success in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on soft ground beating the excellent Parish Hall and Tenth Star in that race. She made a pleasing reintroduction as a 3 year old this year when finishing 1.75L behind subsequent 1,000 Guineas winner Homecoming Queen before a solid 2.31L defeat by Yellow Rosebud on her last start. She has proven to love the testing conditions and although its no guarantee if staying out the trip I think this 3 year old filly with an entry in the Irish Oaks could prove very difficult to beat.

longshotvalue

15:35 Doncaster

Marvellous Value is down to the same mark as his second in the Ayr Silver Cup last year. He will love the soft ground and has had 2 nice sweetener’s over an unsuitable 5 furlongs this year. There is the risk that he will be targeted at a repeat performance in Ayr later this year, but conditions are in his favour here and he looks worth a small bet at a huge price on Betfair.
½ Point win 34 Betfair


2:50 Salisbury
Noverre To Go doesn’t have any real form on Soft but he really has never run on it so far. This has the look of a weak enough race and considering his good return at Haydock this year, his price with Boyles of 9/1 looks too big. He was poor enough next time from a bad draw, but his mark here should put him in with a great chance and I think he is a cert to start shorter than 9/1
1 Point win 9/1 Boyes


4.40 Doncaster
Collateral Damage has always been better on a softer surface and he has shown some signs this year that a revival might be imminent. He looks to have dropped to far in handicap mark given a couple of half decent runs at Beverly this year. With almost no weight and soft ground along with what looks a decent 10/1 available in Paddy Power it all adds up to value.
1 Point win 10/1 Paddy Power


3:15 Cork
Borderlescott has been creeping back to form after his injury last year, and his last run when 4th in the Temple Stakes is a long way clear of anything the rest of this field has done apart maybe from Inexile. I think he should be favourite here and 4/1 available in a few places does look great value. He does have some decent form on soft ground in the past but although its not ideal he may not need to be at his best to win this.
2 Points win 4/1 Coral/Betfred/Will Hill


3:50 Cork
Betterbetterbetter Ran a decent race in the oaks, when the race probably wasn’t run to suit at all being far to slow early on. She ran a good race at Chester on Soft Ground and looks to me to have plenty of progression left in her. She looks more of a 7/2 shot to me than the 7.2 available on Betfair at the moment and easily worth a bet.
2 Points win 7.2 Betfair

MoscowFlyer

2.20 Salisbury - Kathleen Francis.

Had a run through the card this morning and really like the look of this one especially with the ground. It's on a decent mark at 75 and has the booking of Jimmy Fortune. I just can't see it NOT being in the shakeup at the finish line. Available at around 4/1

2pt win for me

--

Travelled well for most of the race but just didn't have anything when asked for it. Came home 5th I think

rossom

One of my former selections My Girl Anna ran an absolutely tremendous race to finish a narrowly beaten 2nd over in the competitive Listed race at Cork. Certainly didn't see her doing that!

MoscowFlyer

She's a character is my pick in the 4.40 at Doncaster. Good luck with Collateral Damage!

rossom

Going to have to watch the race a few times more but I still think there messing with Collateral Damage. He's the sort of horse who needs to get rousted along for quite a bit but Fentiman seemed to throw in the towel very quickly.

I also think the ground played a significant part in that. Ground was soft last night but it was at least good to soft - which is definitely a reason why the ridiculous drift. Maybe he is just a dog now these days but I still think he's been messed about with.

Not the best of days today

rossom

Does anyone have any opinion on Collateral Damage? I'd appreciate someone else eyes on it.

themandan6611

rossom wrote: »

Does anyone have any opinion on Collateral Damage? I'd appreciate someone else eyes on it.

didn't seem to like the ground at all

rossom

Price going quickly so one for tomorrow


7.40 Windsor

We Have A Dream 9/1 NAP

rossom

5.50 Cork

Little Arrows 7/1

Put Ken Condon's 6 year old up two starts back at Leopardstown where he ran a cracker to finish 2nd on the heavy ground, with the front two pulling 2L clear of the remainder. On his last start over the same C+D he didn't perform very well but I think the ground was against him that day as it started the day off as good and its difficult to say how much rain got into the ground. He's back on a very testing surface which should definitely suit and he's only 3lb below his 0.5L defeat two starts ago. Moreover, he's 11lb below his last winning mark and is clearly well handicapped. Ken Condon has his horses in great order at present and Shane Foley takes over in the saddle again. With money coming again (did substantially for his 2nd but not LTO) connections looks like they are looking for some compensation and I certainly feel he is more than capable of landing this event.