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favourite investment ( guru )
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11-06-2012 4:39pm#1
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Just wondering why you think Peter Schiff has lost credibility.
He's lost credibility for me, I'm not saying people don't follow him anymore.
I watched many videos that discuss cheap hydrocarbon energy and it's relationship with our industrial progress over the last 100 years.
Peter Schiff attributes the success of America with free markets but the reality is they had cheap energy for almost 100 years, the biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia up until 1970s when they had to go off the gold standard and become a net importer of oil.
The Saudis have been carrying the water for America now since the 70s but that inevitably will come to an end as the Saudi oil fields also dry up and the regime there collapses...mark my words, it will happen
In my view he is one of only a handful of economists wheeled out on mainstream media, who has kept his credibility completely intact.
He absolutely nailed it in 2007.
He nailed it all by himself? Seriously, I know Schiff fans like to believe he's the oracle of economics and the only single person warning about the housing bubble but plenty of people were warning of a crisis.
The IMF had warned the Irish government in 2006 there was a housing bubble in Ireland but did the Irish government listen? No..they completely ignored the IMF advice and look where we are now.His prediction of US hyper inflation has yet to come, but he did warn in Crash Proof that the politicians would interfere to try keep the bubble inflated, before the hyper inflation would eventually come.
Anyone can make predictions.. of course hyper-inflation could happen but there will almost certainly be a world war before that happens because the US would not allow any country to undermine their dominance in the world without a fight.
So while Shanghai corporation might setup bilateral trade deals with various nations to remove their dependence on the dollar, I can't imagine why the US would just sit and do nothing about it.
Their wealth, power and status in the world is largely the result of plundering other nations over the years and cheap oil, not free market economic policies Mr Schiff would have you believe.telly_lover wrote:max keiser is not an investment guru , he hates that world , he might be right on many things however, 15000 an ounce for gold
, marc faber is an ecentric guy but he,s not afraid to go against the grain and has an excellent track record when it comes to making predictions , when everyone appeared bullish in early spring , faber was ultra bearish
peter schiff is a crank and a conspirocy theorist
Keiser's just a puppet, an entertainer like Gerald Celente.
He does highlight a lot of problems but is short of practical solutions.
While he does interview some good people from time to time, that's about the only reason I'd watch his show, Keiser Report.
Gold might go to $15,000 but then so might a loaf of bread.0 -
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He's lost credibility for me, I'm not saying people don't follow him anymore.
I watched many videos that discuss cheap hydrocarbon energy and it's relationship with our industrial progress over the last 100 years.
Peter Schiff attributes the success of America with free markets but the reality is they had cheap energy for almost 100 years, the biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia up until 1970s when they had to go off the gold standard and become a net importer of oil.
The Saudis have been carrying the water for America now since the 70s but that inevitably will come to an end as the Saudi oil fields also dry up and the regime there collapses...mark my words, it will happen
He nailed it all by himself? Seriously, I know Schiff fans like to believe he's the oracle of economics and the only single person warning about the housing bubble but plenty of people were warning of a crisis.
The IMF had warned the Irish government in 2006 there was a housing bubble in Ireland but did the Irish government listen? No..they completely ignored the IMF advice and look where we are now.
Anyone can make predictions.. of course hyper-inflation could happen but there will almost certainly be a world war before that happens because the US would not allow any country to undermine their dominance in the world without a fight.
So while Shanghai corporation might setup bilateral trade deals with various nations to remove their dependence on the dollar, I can't imagine why the US would just sit and do nothing about it.
Their wealth, power and status in the world is largely the result of plundering other nations over the years and cheap oil, not free market economic policies Mr Schiff would have you believe.
Keiser's just a puppet, an entertainer like Gerald Celente.
He does highlight a lot of problems but is short of practical solutions.
While he does interview some good people from time to time, that's about the only reason I'd watch his show, Keiser Report.
Gold might go to $15,000 but then so might a loaf of bread.
i attributed the $15000 ounce of gold prediction to max keizer by mistake in my earlier post , it was of course made by peter schiff
marc faber is highly eccentric but of right more often than wrong from what i see
how do you rate rogers ?0 -
All I can say is if I had money to invest, I'd probably not take his advice although I do still watch his interviews.
I'm guessing you're already familiar with The SchittReport?
I could recommend you watch 'The End Of Suburbia' or 'The Crude Awakening' as they both show the relationship between economic growth and cheap hydrocarbon fuel, it's fascinating but also very worrying.
I've given up worrying about it, we're probably screwed. LOL
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I watched many videos that discuss cheap hydrocarbon energy and it's relationship with our industrial progress over the last 100 years.
Peter Schiff attributes the success of America with free markets but the reality is they had cheap energy for almost 100 years, the biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia up until 1970s when they had to go off the gold standard and become a net importer of oil.
The Saudis have been carrying the water for America now since the 70s but that inevitably will come to an end as the Saudi oil fields also dry up and the regime there collapses...mark my words, it will happen
You've inadvertently contradicted yourself there by bringing up the Saudis. I completely agree that the US has benefited from cheap energy, but you have to ask yourself why the people of the Middle East are still so poor despite also having cheap oil. They have been let down by their governments.He nailed it all by himself? Seriously, I know Schiff fans like to believe he's the oracle of economics and the only single person warning about the housing bubble but plenty of people were warning of a crisis.
Go back and actually read my post that you quoted. I said there was only a handful of people from mainstream media that were calling the housing bubble.The IMF had warned the Irish government in 2006 there was a housing bubble in Ireland but did the Irish government listen? No..they completely ignored the IMF advice and look where we are now.
I agree, the Irish government is useless! More reason to reduce it.0 -
Peter Schiff attributes the success of America with free markets but the reality is they had cheap energy for almost 100 years, the biggest oil reserves in the world after Saudi Arabia up until 1970s when they had to go off the gold standard and become a net importer of oil.
The Saudis have been carrying the water for America now since the 70s but that inevitably will come to an end as the Saudi oil fields also dry up and the regime there collapses...mark my words, it will happen
When you say cheap energy, you mean cheap oil in dollar terms, if oil is priced in gold its cheaper than ever. You're buying into the belief that the world is running out of oil very soon, of course it is finite, but you're believing the spin from politicians (I'm sure Obama is blaming current oil prices on the middle east etc) that we've reached peak oil, or the bell curve, that's causing the price of oil to rocket. Personally, I don't buy into this, but that's economics.
Schiff highlights the more likely scenario that its the dollar that's in trouble, the QE'ing & low interest rates that are driving the price of oil, which, to me makes alot more sense.Gold might go to $15,000 but then so might a loaf of bread.
Well ye, this is the point, if bread does go to $15,000 you shouldnt be holding dollars or euros but gold & silver. Schiff is warning that if we continue down the nanny state path we can expect these prices alot sooner than the ordinary joe-so politician is expecting.
I guess reverting to the OP's question, I guess Peter would be my favorite, (which is probably obvious from the above) however I also like Jim Rogers, my favorite site for investment news would be zerohedge0 -
Roonbox wrote:In fact most names been thrown around here, Schiff. Faber & Rogers, basically those with an Austrian economic;s view, are pretty good. The problem with trying to please everyone is that in the short term anything can happen, Schiff tends to get drawn into offering a short term prediction sometimes, but the guy understands whats going on in the world..
Roubini is a complete farce
Max Keiser is just a bit too much in the tinfoil hat direction for me
How is Roubini a "complete farce" ?You've inadvertently contradicted yourself there by bringing up the Saudis. I completely agree that the US has benefited from cheap energy, but you have to ask yourself why the people of the Middle East are still so poor despite also having cheap oil. They have been let down by their governments.
No, I brought up the Saudis because they have been selling their oil in dollars, that's what i meant by them "carrying the water"
Why would a country in the middle east with the worlds largest oil reserves sell oil in dollars? Why not the Saudi Riyal? ...you'll see in the history of oil on youtube.
Saudi Arabia is ruled by a royal family for 40+ years with the blessing of the US who buy cheap oil from them using dollars they can print infinitely but everyone else has to buy dollars to get oil.Go back and actually read my post that you quoted. I said there was only a handful of people from mainstream media that were calling the housing bubble.
You said:In my view he is one of only a handful of economists wheeled out on mainstream media, who has kept his credibility completely intact.
He absolutely nailed it in 2007.
okay, my mistake.I agree, the Irish government is useless! More reason to reduce it.
And then what? Who will take over?
Look at Somalia, is that the kind of system you'd prefer?
There's nothing wrong with fiat money provided the people control it and not private bankers.Low Energy Eng wrote:When you say cheap energy, you mean cheap oil in dollar terms, if oil is priced in gold its cheaper than ever. You're buying into the belief that the world is running out of oil very soon, of course it is finite, but you're believing the spin from politicians (I'm sure Obama is blaming current oil prices on the middle east etc) that we've reached peak oil, or the bell curve, that's causing the price of oil to rocket. Personally, I don't buy into this, but that's economics.
Schiff highlights the more likely scenario that its the dollar that's in trouble, the QE'ing & low interest rates that are driving the price of oil, which, to me makes alot more sense.
How is the dollar valuable? What's so special about a piece of paper with a dead president on it?
Oil is sold in dollars, the dollar is the reserve currency, it's the petro-dollar ....that's the hidden value, it's backed by oil.
Imagine if Ireland had no oil tomorrow, what kind of a country would we be living in?
Think about it, our entire way of life completely depends on cheap energy like oil and gas.
There are 2 types of oil, conventional and non-conventional.
The conventional oil is the low hanging fruit, the stuff that's easy to extract from the earth and refine, you'll find most of this right now in the middle east and north africa.
Then there's unconventional oil (tar sands, fracking) which economically costs more than conventional to extract and refine.
To give you an example, a barrel of oil produced in Iraq or Libya might only cost $1 whereas a barrel of tar sands might cost $100
I'm not saying there's a shortage of oil, I'm saying the production costs are getting more expensive and those costs inevitably get pushed on to the tax payer in increased food costs.
So if you look at any energy crisis in the industrialised world, you'll see a correlation with recessions.
You can see examples of this during the 1970s0 -
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