Thursday May 31

rossom

6.15 Sandown

If You Whisper 33/1 NAP

Theres a strong chance he's going to run a shocker but I'm absolutely convinced If You Whisper is going to pop up at big odds sometime soon and hopefully it will be today. Mike Murphy's 4 year old has gone slightly off the ball but resultantly looks very well handicapped and I think a return to turf for only the 2nd time in his career (well beaten on 2nd career start) can hopefully revitalise him and although he's got numerous risked attached to him he looks an absolutely monstrous price. Tomorrow represents his easiest assignment to date and his lowest ever handicap mark of 61 and I think he certainly has more than enough in his locker to win off this mark and given his trainer is in blistering form at present I am very hopefully of a very big run.

After his first two races, If You Whisper took a big step forward when finishing 0.75L behind Towering Spirit over 1m at Kempton being collared close home after battling against the fence to get a clean run. The form of that race looks decent, with Sinfonico 1.5L back in 4th winning off a mark of 84 subsequently. The 5th Groomed who was 3.25L behind If You Whisper has won since off a mark of 79 too so it wasn’t a bad maiden at all. After this, If You Whisper justified odds on favouritism when winning a 5 runner contest at Southwell by a length to Mazovian. Although the form of that race wasn't up to much for his opening handicap mark, the fact he's tumbled a massive 17lb in the weights it looks favourable enough with the 2nd winning off a mark of 67 recently and the 3rd Woop Woop is now a 77 rated horse.

On his 5th start back in January 2011, If You Whisper made his handicap debut off a mark of 78 and started as the outsider of the field in a 4 runner Class 4 handicap at Lingfield but ran a very good race to finish 1L behind the winner The Tichborne. It was a steadily run race so I am inclined to believe that the form of this race is genuine. The form of that race look promising with the winner placing twice off a 4lb higher mark, including a very narrow 0.62L 3rd in the Britannia Stakes behind the excellent Sagramor. Further to this, the 3rd that day Amwell Pinot has won since off a 1lb off 91 higher mark and was 1L behind If You Whisper.

If You Whisper made his reappearance run after being off since for 7 months and although he was disappointing he may well have needed this run and I’m willing to forgive that effort. After a few poor starts, If You Whisper was stepped up to 1m2f for the first time and shaped rather well but was ultimately disappointing as he didn't really pick up when asked in the home straight at Kempton in a Class 4. That was off a mark of 75 and he was well supported before the off, normally a very telling sign for a Murphy horse, so I think that a lot better was expected of him.

5 starts ago If You Whisper put up his best effort for a long time in first time blinkers when a consistently staying on and 3.5L beaten 4th over 10f at Lingfield off a mark of 72. After being customarily held up at the back of the field throughout and having to race wide, If You Whisper turned into the home straight towards the rear and was finishing better than anything. It was also a race that suited those who raced prominently as the first 3 turning into the straight were also the first 3 home. The form of that race is solid but not brilliant but if reproducing this effort off an 11lb lower mark on turf then I think If You Whisper could be very difficult to beat.

After a couple of bad runs afterwards that could have been down to blinkers wearing off, If You Whisper was absolutely smashed at Wolves in February 2 starts back off a mark of 67 as he opened a double figure price before going off a 7/2 shot. In a race that had a moderate pace throughout, which I definitely think didn't suit If You Whisper, he made extremely eye catching progress around the outside to take up the running about 4f out but he finished pretty tamely to come a 6L beaten 6th. The form of that race is no great shakes at all but the fact he was so well supported tells me that he had been working very well at home and that connections felt he was more than capable of winning off a mark of 67. LTO in April he was never really knocked about as he came home in 9th and it you can't take much encouragement from the run.

Although a return to turf is a complete unknown, there is definite possibility that he will improve for a return to grass. He's fallen to a mark of 61 and he's invariably well handicapped but there is a chance that he has regressed and may not hold much of the ability that he used to. However, he definitely showed more than a glimpse that he retains his ability with a good 4th off an 11lb higher mark in December and I'm convinced there is some more life left in this 4 year old. I'm very encouraged to see Martin Dwyer take the ride as he took the reigns for another Murphy inmate recently in the shape of Greensward who ran an excellent 3rd at a big price. Moreover, Dwyer may have to make a bit of a dash from Brighton racecourse to make this ride as this race is 2hrs after his last ride and given that it takes about 70 minutes to get to Sandown (not including traffic) I'm hoping this is a sign that Murphy has convinced Dwyer to quickly come for the ride. Pure speculation I know but it could well be the case. If You Whisper gets in here off bottom weight of 8-7 and he'll have a featherweight on his back for the 10f trip. Although the draw in stall 12 isn't ideal, he likes to get dropped out so its not a grave concern. I think the fact he faces 16 rivals will ensure a fast pace which should definitely suit If You Whisper and I am definitely hopeful of a very big run. Clearly he's a risky proposition who could easily finish last, but with Mike Murphy's stable in tremendous form at present and the trainer having a 22% strike rate at the track I'm pretty confident of a big showing from this 4 year old and I've had a big enough e/w in the hope he can land this event.

chipsdave

Hi Rossom I have been following your highly informative and articulate Daily Selection thread only in the last few Days and even though I have not backed any of your Selections enjoy looking out for them ! keep up the good work !

rossom

chipsdave wrote: »

Hi Rossom I have been following your highly informative and articulate Daily Selection thread only in the last few Days and even though I have not backed any of your Selections enjoy looking out for them ! keep up the good work !

Cheers mate