Irish Times Fiscal Treaty Poll

Sully

Irish Times Fiscal Treaty Poll:

Yes 39% +9, No 30% +7, DK 31% -17

Squeaky bum time indeed. Neck and neck. If anything, fair play to the No side for catching up and they did very little to justify it. Likewise with the Yes, very poor performance to be jumping like that.

Hard to see the Yes side pulling this over the line if margins are that tonight.

Ozymandius2011

Let's also remember that in Nice I in 2001, the margin in the last poll was 46-28.

deanh

Sully wrote: »

Irish Times Fiscal Treaty Poll:

Yes 39% +9, No 30% +7, DK 31% -17

Squeaky bum time indeed. Neck and neck. If anything, fair play to the No side for catching up and they did very little to justify it. Likewise with the Yes, very poor performance to be jumping like that.

Hard to see the Yes side pulling this over the line if margins are that tonight.

How do you work out that the no side have caught up? No has gained 7%, Yes has gained 9%.That means the Yes side have increased their lead by 2% since the last poll.

Sully

deanh wrote: »

How do you work out that the no side have caught up? No has gained 7%, Yes has gained 9%.That means the Yes side have increased their lead by 2% since the last poll.

Because they gained enough to make the difference between them even tighter. If the No camp didn't, the Yes side lead would be significant.

deanh

Sully wrote: »

Because they gained enough to make the difference between them even tighter. If the No camp didn't, the Yes side lead would be significant.

direct quote from Stephen Collins on irishtimes.com :" When undecided voters are excluded support for the Yes side stands at 57 per cent with No support at 43 per cent."
a 14% lead with less than a week to go is significant

Ozymandius2011

deanh wrote: »

direct quote from Stephen Collins on irishtimes.com :" When undecided voters are excluded support for the Yes side stands at 57 per cent with No support at 43 per cent."
a 14% lead with less than a week to go is significant

Yes but DKs tend to break to the no side in EU referenda. At least in Amsterdam and Nice I they did. Also 72% were on the yes side shortly before the defeated Oireachtas Inquiries referendum. It's all to play for.

Godge

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Yes but DKs tend to break to the no side in EU referenda. At least in Amsterdam and Nice I they did. Also 72% were on the yes side shortly before the defeated Oireachtas Inquiries referendum. It's all to play for.

In previous campaigns the "Yes" vote started with a large lead that was gradually eroded and this was repeated across the polls.

So far in this campaign in each poll, the "Yes" vote has increased on the previous poll by the same company as it has swallowed up more than its fair share of don't knows. If the Irish Times poll had shown the "No" vote gaining by 9% and the "Yes" vote by 7%, there might be something in what you say.

I am sure there will be other polls before the referendum and let us see what they see. The "no" vote will need every single other poll to show a shift towards them while the "yes" vote only needs to get something small.

K-9

Sully wrote: »

Because they gained enough to make the difference between them even tighter. If the No camp didn't, the Yes side lead would be significant.

The No side need to get all the don't knows and gain from the yes side in the final days. I'd say the yes side will be happy enough.

Ronin247

K-9 wrote: »

The No side need to get all the don't knows and gain from the yes side in the final days. I'd say the yes side will be happy enough.

Eh? No side needs 2/3 of the undecided for a 50 1/2 %- 49 1/2% win and from what I have been told the undecided traditionally trend towards no.

Definitely squeaky bum time.

Sam Kade

Polls are useless information

Sully

deanh wrote: »

direct quote from Stephen Collins on irishtimes.com :" When undecided voters are excluded support for the Yes side stands at 57 per cent with No support at 43 per cent."
a 14% lead with less than a week to go is significant

The Yes side wont get all of that. Most people who are unsure wont vote or will vote No. If they cant be persuaded at this stage by the terrible campaigns from either side, they will generally just vote no thinking its the "safer option". If the bulk of the Undecided goes to No (and No climbs again anyway) and the Yes side climbs a bit more - the No side can pip the post.

K-9

Ronin247 wrote: »

Eh? No side needs 2/3 of the undecided for a 50 1/2 %- 49 1/2% win and from what I have been told the undecided traditionally trend towards no.

Definitely squeaky bum time.

Apologies, looking at it the wrong way, I read 17 as the percentage. 11% or so of 31% is achievable, put it this way I'd prefer to be n the Yes camp, especially as they got more than a 50/50 share of don't knows who changed their mind this time.

9% isn't bad, not squeaky bum time like Lisbon 1 but kick up the arse time to make sure the lead stays or get a decent share of the don't knows.

deanh

Apparently, two further polls on sunday. one s. indo, the other SBP. The indo poll will help Shane Ross TD come off the fence. The splinters must be hurting by now.