Property in Dublin rises for the second month running - deat cat bounce?

seamus

Figures from the CSO Today have shown that asking prices in Dublin have risen for the second month in a row. Close to zero change (0.2% and 0.5%) to be fair, but it's the first time in five years that we've seen postive figures in two consecutive months. This is against a national trend showing prices still moving downward.

Perhaps most bizarre are the figures for apartments which have shown prices up by more than 2% for two consecutive months, while prices for houses have shown just the bare minimum of increases.

I'm aware that these are asking prices (right?) so they don't indicate actual selling prices, but in general it would seem to flow in the same direction. What say ye - are we seeing the downward trajectory start to wobble as it slows before the bottom? What about apartments in particular - does this indicate a reduced supply in the rental market causing an increased demand in sales?
Or is it a glut of hard-pressed investors trying to offload their rental properties at unrealistic prices?

I did a few napkin sums earlier this year pointing to a levelling-out in the decline in house prices sometime in the middle 6 months of 2013. I wonder if I could possibly be right?

puffishoes

1. Asking prices increase != Sales Increase.

2. Most of that reports seems to show decrease in prices?

3. Last month the increase was specific to certain area of Dublin.

Nothing to see here.

jobless

also wasnt there a report last month about the actual number of new mortgages being given out less than 2000... why dont they release how they calculate these figures

cookie1977

According to @NAMAwinelake

Dublin apartment prices increase for 2nd mth in row, but there were 2 consecutive incs in 2011 followed by declines

http://namawinelake.wordpress.com/2012/05/24/cso-april-house-prices-irish-residential-property-continues-to-decline-after-blip-in-march-when-prices-were-flat/

So I wouldn't get too excited but if there's going to be any sort of recovery it'll begin in Dublin first.

seamus

Actually I'm wrong, the figures come from actual sales values where a mortgage has been obtained for the sale. So it's nothing to do with asking prices.

Cash sales (i.e. ones without a mortgage) aren't included, though they appear to be gathering information from Revenue about stamp duty in order to further refine the data.

@cookie, I think that's a little naive from NAMAWineLake. Those two increases were at the very end of 2011. If you put them together, over the last six months, there were four months of increases versus two months of drops.

Granted, the drops were pretty big, but it is a fairly wide divergence from the steady drop pattern of the previous 48 months. Perhaps enough to indicate that the market is wobbling.

Can't really say anything solid for another couple of months. We could always see a few months of increases on the back of improved sentiment and then a huge slump again late this year/early next year as budgets kick in.

RATM

I wouldn't pay too much attention to these figuers and hold off making any calls until the National Property Price Index comes on stream in July (?).

Finally we will have true market transparency when that arrives, we'll be able to see actual selling prices of specific prices rather than relying on asking price data from Daft, Myhome and other vested interests.

puffishoes

There's also I imagine a lot of people who have been on the sideline watching for a few years who have managed to accumulate a lot of cash. I think as these come out of the woodwork there will be small increases and then as the demand drops off again back to the drops.

With potential public sector wage cuts more job losses and higher taxes in the pipeline I can't see where there's much potential for prolonged increases.

cookie1977

puffishoes wrote: »

...I can't see where there's much potential for prolonged increases.

I think the increases will come out of necessity of people having to move (particularly in the urban centres). Related to increases in family size, the need to move closer to work due to fuel increases and travel costs. Albeit I imagine a very very slow increase.

lau1247

could mortgage interest relief coming to an end by the end of the year have anything to do with the increase?? It'll probably drop by start of next year

cookie1977

lau1247 wrote: »

could mortgage interest relief coming to an end by the end of the year have anything to do with the increase?? It'll probably drop by start of next year

It could do. There's so many factors. Maybe the banks have begun lending a little more recently (the new negative equity mortgages on offer from some banks).

puffishoes

cookie1977 wrote: »

I think the increases will come out of necessity of people having to move (particularly in the urban centres). Related to increases in family size, the need to move closer to work due to fuel increases and travel costs. Albeit I imagine a very very slow increase.

I'm not sure that many people move at the same time during period's of instability. Plus a lot of people who bought outside of the commuter belt who would like to get closer to work are now up to their eyes in negative equity and can't move even if they want to and this number continues to grow.

I'm sure this is probably going on now but the numbers are so low it's not having much of an effect one way or another.

What will increase activity has been the same for many years. Realistic asking prices. When houses are priced accordingly they will move.

tim9002

Asking prices are still falling: http://www.myhome.ie/pricechanges

Marcusm

I'd be very surprised if they were gathering sufficient date such that an increase in sales of more expensive properties wasn't having an impact. This is merely an increase in the average selling price rather than prices generally. Houses aren't homogenous such that some expensive house sales at a time of relatively few sales can skew the average. There has not been a significant increase in available fnance so I think this is a statistically insignificant report!

Senna

A lot of people who can afford to buy were holding off in the last few years, now with TRS coming to an end there might be a few more in the market. I cannot see this being a trend, there is nothing else to entice people into the market and i cant see any signs of recovery.

Rabidlamb

Yeah, soft landing at last, took 5 years and 60% mind.
This stability & movement in the market has to be seen as a good thing.
If it stayed like this for the next 10 years it would suit everyone.
As long as banks resist offering crazy multiples of salary & are properly regulated this would be a nice even keel to settle on.

Idbatterim

funny how you cant comment under the property articles on the independents page!

bjak

Idbatterim wrote: »

funny how you cant comment under the property articles on the independents page!

Its probably cos of all of the negativity from the "begrudging classes". :eek:

Amazing that they seem to have recycled the same article more than once a week for the last 4 years. I love the brass-necked attitude publishing this rubbish time and again in the light of the complete inaccuracy of their previous property market predictions.

Who could forget Brendan Keenan, Indo Group Business editor who argued with St Dave McWilliams on Primetime and asserted that Anglo's problem was only a liquidity one and their bad debts were only 1% of their loan book. Should have been exiled to the place Bank of Ireland's Dan Mclaughlin has slunk off to after getting it sooo wrong.