Thursday 24 May

rossom

8.40 Sandown

Buzkashi 8/1

This one looks a very big price in my opinion. Previously with Roger Varian, this 3 year old has moved to the excellent David Lanigan stable and making her handicap debut off a mark of 74 he could very well be a rather nicely handicapped animal. Buzkashi made her debut last July in what turned out to be a useful looking maiden as he finished a 2L beaten 3rd at Newmarket's July course over the 7f trip. Sitting close enough to the pace, Buzkashi got slightly outpaced before looking a bit green when asked to quicken on as she stayed on towards the finish and it was a very promising debut in my eyes. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner Fallen For You going down by only 0.5L in a Group 2 on her next start and she is a very talented animal for the John Gosden team. The 2nd Rhytmic was a very impressive 3.75L winner on her next start which solidifies the form.

On her next start, Buzkashi was upped to 1m and sent off favourite in a similar event at Leicester. After occupying a sit just behind the leaders, Buzkashi was angled off the rail to make her challenge when she clipped heels and stumbled very badly with the horse in front of her and she was lucky not to go down. After that, she was given an easy time of things by jockey Neil Callan as she went down by just under 4L. She hadn't been asked anything at that stage and whether she would have won is a mystery but she certainly would have gone close. The winner that day My Queenie was officially rated 93 before that contest after getting beaten 1.75L in her previous start in a Group 3 and for Buzkashi to go off favourite says a lot about how she was fancied prior to that race. My Queenie has proved to be a very solid performer in the high 80s since and it was clearly a strong race. Moreover the 4th Saytara, who was a debutant that day, won on her only subsequent beating Dulkashe by 1L and that rival has since won off 77 so the form of that race stacks up well.

On her final start, Buzkashi ran in the Tatersalls Million 2YO Fillies Trophy and I think it again demonstrates that connections hold her in high regard. After getting rather wound up in the prelims beforehand, she was given a sympathetic ride by Steve Drowne when he knew her chance was gone. In truth she was probably outclassed that day, but the 7f trip and her getting fractious prior to the race starting certainly wouldn't have aided her cause. She's been absent since last October and she makes her 3 year old debut today in Class 5 handicap for new trainer David Lanigan. I think on the basis of her runs to date that her opening mark of 74 is potentially extremely lenient. Although she faces a tough enough task taking on a 4 year old and 5 year old (who have to carry 12lb and 14lb more respectively due to weight allowances), I still think she could be too good for these rivals. She's stepped up to 1m1f for the first time tomorrow and I definitely think the extra distance will suit and will bring about further improvement. She wears a hood for the first time today which should hopefully both focus and relax her bring about some improvement. She holds an entry in the Tatersalls Millions 3YO Cup next month which shows her connections still think quite a bit about her, and the owners have persevered with her despite moving trainer. With her trainer in blistering form with 3 winners from his last 8 runners, I'm very confident of a big showing for Buzkashi and I hope she can break her maiden in fine style at what I consider to be a very generous price.

MoscowFlyer

Only really have 1 fancy for tomorrow and it's Johnno in the 7.05 at Sandown at around 13/2

Has had 2 runs so far this year, didn't get the run of things last time out IR and from a wide-ish draw at Kempton. Back on the turf tomorrow and hopefully it can bounce back and give me a run for my money!

dave3004

Great write up Rossom as usual.

If I was you, I would not be making your bet until the horses are behind the gates. It seems Buzkashi has her own ideas about the game (getting warm in the prelims) and the addition of the hood suggests maybe she's a quirky one who has potential.

If she's settled nicely in the prelims & looks well in the paddock get stuck in - Seems a lovely price.



Imtithal has a tissue price of 20/1 !!!!!

This horse was 2nd on a couple of runs over a mile when it looks like she wanted slightly further - always closest at the line.

She went up to 10f and was beaten into 2nd by a Gosden horse who has gone again and won since off 76.

I've put a line through her last start as she was 40L behind 2nd last but it was a class 3 over 9f so they must think something of her.

Hopefully she's fit and well again and can outrun her massive odds with the services of W.Buick in the plate.

Yard is out of form but worth a couple of euro e/w in an open 12 runner class 5.

rossom

dave3004 wrote: »

Great write up Rossom as usual.

If I was you, I would not be making your bet until the horses are behind the gates. It seems Buzkashi has her own ideas about the game (getting warm in the prelims) and the addition of the hood suggests maybe she's a quirky one who has potential.

If she's settled nicely in the prelims & looks well in the paddock get stuck in - Seems a lovely price.

Cheers Dave. Hopefully she's matured a bit now three and the hood should help in that regard too. If I could get 8s before the off I would have but she's halved in price already which I expected so not really an option!

rossom

7.35 Sandown

Tingo in the Tale 20/1

I like the look of David Arbuthnot's 3 year old who is pretty unexposed and if ignoring his last effort which came on barely raceable LTO I think he looks fairly overpriced at 20s. In his 6 starts to date, TITT has proved himself to be a rather useful animal and I expect there is a lot more to come. On debut back in July of last year over 7f, this gelding ran a decent enough race in which the talented Group 3 winning Crius won as he finished about 7.5L beaten back in 6th. He looked like he lacked a bit of racecourse experience and looked certain to come from that effort. On his 2nd start, TITT broke his maiden when landing a Maiden at Brighton stepped up to a mile on soft ground. Again, he looked to still be learning but he was forward enough to land this contest going away when scoring by 1.75L, with the front two pulling 5L clear of the remainder. Although the form of that race is only ok, he showed a likeable battling quality to draw clear from Sheila's Buddy when she drew back alongside.

On his 3rd start and after being assigned a handicap mark of 75, Tingo in the Tale ran a very admirable second over 1m at Newmarket on good to soft ground as he finished 1.25L behind Devdas. In a large field, he got a decent enough passage through from the back and was never nearer at the finish, demonstrating a step up in trip would suit. The form of that race is very solid, with Devdas performing well off a 6lb higher mark in better races. Moreover, the 4th Glee ran a cracker in the Tattersill Millions filly's 2YO race subsequently and the 5th Salford Art ran a very good race to beaten only 5L in a Group 1 subsequently. 3 starts back in October and upped to a mark of 78, TITT was upped to 9f on good ground at Newmarket and it was a strange performance. After travelling into the race very strongly, his stride shortened significantly and it looked as if he either didn't handle the good ground or something went wrong. Mizbah, who finished just behind Tingo in the Tale on his handicap debut and who reopposes tomorrow on 2lb worse terms, finished 3rd in this race so it clearly wasn't a true showing of his potential. This was his last start as a 2 year old and given he wasn't seen for 6 months either of my 2 theories are very possible.

Two starts back, TITT made his AW debut at Kempton where he was a massive eye catcher in my eyes over 1m on his reappearance run. In his traditional style of sitting off the pace, James Doyle brought him around the outside and under only hands and heels riding he stayed on past beaten horses to finish a 4L beaten 5th. Considering Doyle didn't go for the whip once, it looked clear to me that this was just to get a run under his belt after a long absence and he certainly appeared to have a lot of horse left under him.Furthermore, the step up in trip again looked like it would definitely benefit him. LTO Tingo in the Tale was stepped upped to 1m2f for the first time in a Class 3 event and in my eyes it looks his ideal trip. Off a mark of 78, he was very well fancied by connections as he was backed from 14/1 into 6/1 before going off 15/2 on the heavy ground at todays track but he put in an absolute shocker and I'm taking a bit of a risk ignoring this effort. On barely raceable ground, he was asked to close by James Doyle before being eased 2f out and he was nearly brought to a walk about 1.5f out. He either couldn't act on extremely heavy ground or he didn't feel right to Doyle.

Today he's again tried at the 1m2f trip at Sandown which shows that connections share my opinion that he will relish the step up in trip. He's been dropped 3lb for his last effort and he's back to the mark of 75 where he posted an excellent 2nd on handicap debut. He faces good ground tomorrow which is a slight concern as he may not have acted on it in his last start as a two year old but I think the price factors in these concerns. He's dropped back into Class 4 company today and faces some pretty unexposed rivals but he is relatively unexposed himself and I think he'll prove to be better than his current mark of 75. Jim Crowley takes the ride and he has a 22% strike rate for trainer David Arbuthnot and is riding fantastically at the moment and he is a really positive booking in my eyes. Another concern I have is that Arbuthnot's horses aren't in the best of form at present and he's actually without a flat winner since last August (since February over jumps). He was well backed LTO so connections were obviously hopeful of a big run and although he won't be a big bet from me I hope he can bounce back to form and run a very good race.

rossom

5.15 Haydock

Royal Trooper 20/1

I really think the price of Royal Trooper is a bit mad at 20/1 and I'm pretty confident of a big showing from this 6 year old. James Given's gelding has dropped back to a mark of 79 which I think makes him look rather well handicapped. Last year, Royal Trooper made a reappearance after an 8 month break at Thirsk and came on an awful lot for that effort as he won on his next start at Doncaster over 12f off a mark of 77 on good to firm ground. For his win, he travelled into the race very nicely and had to be kept up to his work by jockey Freddy Tylicki as he went on to score by a rather comfortable 0.75L, with the front two drawing about 10L clear of the remainder in the Class 4 handicap. The 2nd that day ran respectably enough off a 6lb higher mark on his only subsequent start and its not terrible form.

After this, Royal Trooper ran 8 days later off a revised mark of 83 where he ran a good 2L beaten 4th over 13f at Hamilton. He travelled into the race extremely powerfully and Tylicki hit the front about 2.5f out and I think he idled a bit out in front as he was eventually swallowed up inside the final furlong. The form of that race looks pretty solid with the winner scoring impressively on his next start off a 6lb higher mark upped to 2m whilst the 3rd Union Island won off a 1lb higher mark 2 starts after this effort and it was a fine effort by Royal Trooper. After running a couple of shockers in his next two starts, he bounced back to some sort of form when finishing a good 6L beaten 3rd at Hamilton off a mark of 82. Under Julie Burke that day, he travelled extremely strongly again which is characteristic of this gelding and Burke found herself out in front about 3f out. He looked a bit lost out in front and got swallowed up by two rivals as he dropped back. Although I think the winner would have won regardless, I think Royal Trooper would have finished a lot closer if he was played a bit later and he looks a ride that needs to be judged to perfection.

After a solid performance over 12f at Thirsk after this, Royal Trooper ran an absolute cracker in a Class 2 handicap at today's track over 14f 3 starts ago in September last year on good to soft ground. After being held up, Royal Trooper was a fair bit behind when Freddy Tylicki asked him to close with about 3f to go and he stayed on all the way to the line to go down by 0.5L. It really was an excellent effort and it dispelled any myths that he is merely a strong travelling bridle horse in my eyes. The form of that race looks pretty strong with the winner subsequently finishing a very narrowly beaten 2nd off a 3lb higher mark this year whilst the 5th Ithoughtitwasover ran a couple of very solid 2nds after this race last year before improving this year to win 2 from 2, the latest being an emphatic victory in a Listed contest. He put in a disappointing effort after this and he took a 7 month break before making his reappearance run at Doncaster earlier this month, where he was clearly out to get a run under his belt as he was given a very easy time of things under todays jockey Paul Mulrennan.

Considering he is only 2lb above his last winning mark, 2lb below his excellent 2nd in a Class 2 in September and 4lb below a good 4th at Hamilton last year, I think Royal Trooper looks well handicapped off a mark of 79. From his draw in stall 2, I'll be very interested to see how he is ridden tomorrow. Given the 12f trip is probably as short as he wants it and considering he stays 15f, Royal Trooper may be instructed to use his extra stamina to try and make all like he did back in 2010 when successful twice under this jockey. However, I really hope they don't as this horse has a high cruising speed and his last win came at this distance. I'm delighted to see blinkers applied for the first time tomorrow given his tendency to idle out in front and I really think they could bring out considerable improvement in him if they maintain his focus for the entire race. He clearly goes very well at the track with 2 very narrow defeats in 3 starts and this Class 4 handicap looks a lot easier than his run in the Class 2 last year. With trainer James Given in good form and the reappearance run likely to have him spot on, I'm confident of a big showing from Royal Trooper and I think he looks incredibly overpriced at 20s.

rossom

Having a small bet on 7.45 Salisbury Brett Vale 40/1. One of my old favourites who is making his first appearance since September 2010. He's clearly got a massive question mark about race fitness but being 10lb below his last winning mark I think he's worth a small play with ground being ideal.