Tuesday 22nd May

rossom

3.30 Brighton

Filun 11/1

I think Anthony Middleton's 7 year old gelding looks a very nice price at 11/1 and I think he could take a lot of beating tomorrow. After a problem with Ulcers, Filun really came to fruition when landing a C+D event in fantastic style at the end of April last year when sauntering to victory off a mark of 48. He was clearly very well handicapped after overcoming his issues and he subsequently ran out an impressive winner when he was raised 8lb for winning on his next start at Lingfield 20 days later. Filun continued his rapid rise by landing a hat trick 8 days later, this time off a mark of 62, as he again ran out a very impressive winner over C+D. In the 3 runner event, Filun travelled extremely well before quickening up decisively in the final furlong to score by 3.5L. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd twice in August and she is now rated 11lb higher than she was when playing second fiddle to Filun.

After this, Filun was raised by 9lb and ran a very respectable 3L beaten 3rd off a mark of 71 at Salisbury at what has become his standard 12f trip. Once again, he travelled extremely powerfully into the race and just couldn't pick up when asked in the final furlong. The form of that race is strong with the winner Danvilla winning off an 8lb higher mark subsequently and he is now 12lb higher. Furthermore, the 4th Eshtyaaq ran 3 excellent 2nds on his next 3 starts and is now rated 8lb higher than that day. After this Filun was given a 1lb hike in the weights from the handicapper and he again put in another excellent performance when going down by 1L at the end of June at Epsom. He travelled in his usual ominous way and jockey Liam Keniry waited as long as he could before he played him but the winner made all that day and he just couldn't pick him up. The form of that race isn't anything of note but it was still an encouraging effort. On his last start last year he ran a shocker at Epsom and considering he was absent for a long period after I'm willing to ignore that effort.

Filun's last start came at Windsor last month after an 8 month break and I'm pretty sure he needed that reappearance run. He travelled pretty strongly until about 2f out but found absolutely nothing when asked for an effort and hopefully he'll be much sharper today. He returns to Brighton off a mark of 70 and he clearly loves it round here, with 2 very impressive victories over C+D as well as two other 3rds. Moreover, the ground should be ideal with his hat trick last summer coming on good to firm ground. Given the form of his latest C+D victory and his two subsequent placed efforts, I certainly don't think a mark of 70 is beyond him and a return to Brighton should see the best of him. He should come on an awful lot for his reappearance run and hopefully he won't need more than that to be fully race fit. Liam Keniry, who was his regular pilot last season, is engaged at Nottingham so John Fahy takes the ride for the first time and it is also his first start for the trainer. Although Middleton is winless since September, its not really a big concern for me as he was winless for 13 months prior to Filun's treble last summer. Although Fahy will have to be at his best to play him late enough, I think Filun represents excellent e/w value at 11/1 and holds a strong chance of landing this event. Current favourite Navigation Track could prove to be very well handicapped but he has an 8 month absence to overcome and Brighton's unique track may not suit him. Filun is clearly at his best around this time of the year and he'll surely trade very short in running if he's got any chance in the closing stages given the way he travels so if you are that way inclined it represents the perfect opportunity to lay off some of your liability on Betfair.

Pinesky

Thanks Rossom Boyle's go 12/1 PP &VC lower always a good sign

rossom

7.45 Towcester

Oscar Sierra 20/1

Pretty shocked that such a big price is available about Oscar Sierra, who represents both Richard Johnson and trainer Tim Vaughan's only engagements today. This 6 year old is relatively unexposed with only 9 starts to date and I think his handicap mark of 107 looks pretty lenient. In his first 6 starts in bumpers and novice hurdle events, Oscar Sierra didn't really show anything and it wasn't until his 7th start where he really came to fruition as he landed a novice hurdle at Hereford last August. The 5 runner event was a strange affair with a slow pace early on before it picked up substantially about 3f out. Under the hands of Robert Kirk, the leaders were allowed to kick away from Oscar Sierra but Kirk remained confident and between the long run in of the last two flights Kirk brought him wide to challenge and he picked up the leader pair quite nicely in the final strides to get up and score by a comfortable enough 0.5L

The form of that race looks pretty strong. The 2nd Seedless, who was off the same weight as Oscar Sierra, won very impressively off a mark of 105 and has since come a very good 2nd to a progressive rival off a mark of 115 and is now a 120 rated animal. This was Oscar Sierra's last start in 2011 and he made his reappearance run at March on ground that didn't suit as he was tailed off on handicap debut off a mark of 110. I'm willing to overlook this effort as he probably needed the run and the ground didn't suit. On his last start, Oscar Sierra was set a very difficult challenge as he attempted to carry 3lb more than a 134 rated horse and the gulf in class was evident as that rival ran out a ready winner. On the basis of his sole win to date, I think he looks reasonably well handicapped based on the subsequent efforts of his victory. Connections landed a mammoth gamble that day as he was a 66/1 shot early doors and he was backed from 20s into an SP of 14/1 from opening show so I'm slightly concerned about the big drift at the moment. With Tim Vaughan in great form at the moment and having a 21% strike rate at the track I just think the 20/1 price is much too big, especially as given the success of the jockey/trainer combination and the fact its there only representation today. I'm having a small bet now but if money comes I'll increase my stake.

UrbanSea

You were unlucky rossom, that first horse was done at about 10/1 on in running.


I've done two bets today. Potentiale in the next at 20/1 and Nicks Power at Towcester tonight at 13/2. Only small bets, might go in on yours too

MoscowFlyer

Filun traded at 1.07 IR!

rossom

rossom wrote: »

3.30 Brighton

Filun 11/1

I think Anthony Middleton's 7 year old gelding looks a very nice price at 11/1 and I think he could take a lot of beating tomorrow. After a problem with Ulcers, Filun really came to fruition when landing a C+D event in fantastic style at the end of April last year when sauntering to victory off a mark of 48. He was clearly very well handicapped after overcoming his issues and he subsequently ran out an impressive winner when he was raised 8lb for winning on his next start at Lingfield 20 days later. Filun continued his rapid rise by landing a hat trick 8 days later, this time off a mark of 62, as he again ran out a very impressive winner over C+D. In the 3 runner event, Filun travelled extremely well before quickening up decisively in the final furlong to score by 3.5L. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd twice in August and she is now rated 11lb higher than she was when playing second fiddle to Filun.

After this, Filun was raised by 9lb and ran a very respectable 3L beaten 3rd off a mark of 71 at Salisbury at what has become his standard 12f trip. Once again, he travelled extremely powerfully into the race and just couldn't pick up when asked in the final furlong. The form of that race is strong with the winner Danvilla winning off an 8lb higher mark subsequently and he is now 12lb higher. Furthermore, the 4th Eshtyaaq ran 3 excellent 2nds on his next 3 starts and is now rated 8lb higher than that day. After this Filun was given a 1lb hike in the weights from the handicapper and he again put in another excellent performance when going down by 1L at the end of June at Epsom. He travelled in his usual ominous way and jockey Liam Keniry waited as long as he could before he played him but the winner made all that day and he just couldn't pick him up. The form of that race isn't anything of note but it was still an encouraging effort. On his last start last year he ran a shocker at Epsom and considering he was absent for a long period after I'm willing to ignore that effort.

Filun's last start came at Windsor last month after an 8 month break and I'm pretty sure he needed that reappearance run. He travelled pretty strongly until about 2f out but found absolutely nothing when asked for an effort and hopefully he'll be much sharper today. He returns to Brighton off a mark of 70 and he clearly loves it round here, with 2 very impressive victories over C+D as well as two other 3rds. Moreover, the ground should be ideal with his hat trick last summer coming on good to firm ground. Given the form of his latest C+D victory and his two subsequent placed efforts, I certainly don't think a mark of 70 is beyond him and a return to Brighton should see the best of him. He should come on an awful lot for his reappearance run and hopefully he won't need more than that to be fully race fit. Liam Keniry, who was his regular pilot last season, is engaged at Nottingham so John Fahy takes the ride for the first time and it is also his first start for the trainer. Although Middleton is winless since September, its not really a big concern for me as he was winless for 13 months prior to Filun's treble last summer. Although Fahy will have to be at his best to play him late enough, I think Filun represents excellent e/w value at 11/1 and holds a strong chance of landing this event. Current favourite Navigation Track could prove to be very well handicapped but he has an 8 month absence to overcome and Brighton's unique track may not suit him. Filun is clearly at his best around this time of the year and he'll surely trade very short in running if he's got any chance in the closing stages given the way he travels so if you are that way inclined it represents the perfect opportunity to lay off some of your liability on Betfair.

I hate being right sometimes!

Pinesky

Can't believe Filun didn't win lost 3-4 lengths at start had to be slightly switched to challenge hung a bit towards rail and couldn't go by beaten by the outsider still thanks Rossom I had a nice ew