Friday 18 May

rossom

Will try get write ups done in the morning

3.55 Newmarket Qaraaba 8/1
4.10 York The Mellor Fella 25/1
8.25 Newcastle Chiswick Bey 16/1 & Eastern Hills 11/1

There will be another two tomorrow which I am expecting drift so I'll post them up when that happens.

MoscowFlyer

Whoa at Qaraaba being that price, all over it. Although this is a step up in class she won last time out with such ease just scything through the field and winning pretty handily. Surprised if she isn't in the shake up once again.

Also surprised if she isn't one of Hugh Taylor's tips today.

ipitydafool

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Whoa at Qaraaba being that price, all over it. Although this is a step up in class she won last time out with such ease just scything through the field and winning pretty handily. Surprised if she isn't in the shake up once again.

Also surprised if she isn't one of Hugh Taylor's tips today.

Great call, Hugh Talyor just tipped Qaraaba up there now! Watch its price tumble now

MoscowFlyer

Yeah, he is a big fan of the horse. Got on at 15/2 this morning before he put up his selection, now into around 6s in most places.

One that Im keeping an eye out for tonight at Dundalk is Orafinitis which runs at 8.50. It has been dropping down the weights and to me looks at a half decent mark right now. Hopefully it can run a decent race back on the A/W.

Around the 16/1 mark atm

rossom

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Yeah, he is a big fan of the horse. Got on at 15/2 this morning before he put up his selection, now into around 6s in most places.

One that Im keeping an eye out for tonight at Dundalk is Orafinitis which runs at 8.50. It has been dropping down the weights and to me looks at a half decent mark right now. Hopefully it can run a decent race back on the A/W.

Around the 16/1 mark atm

I've been following Orafinitis for a long, long time Moscow and had a fair chunk on her for her only win. She's definitely capable of winning off this mark and probably 10lb higher but I'm not sure she'll stay the 1m 2f trip. Would love to see her move stable as I think she could potentially be rated in the 70s. I did a write up for her on her last start if you want me to stick it up?

rossom

Can't complain with the run of Qaraaba

8.25 Newcastle

Chiswick Bey 20/1 & Eastern Hills 25/1

Both horses look ridiculous prices and I've had to back both as a result. Firstly, Chiswick Bey is a pretty unexposed 4 year old with only 10 starts to date and Richard Fahey's gelding looked a rather progressive animal at the end of last year. Winning on debut, Chiswick Bey contested the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot in his 2 year old career and although outclassed, it shows connections like him. On his 4th start Chiswick Bey made his handicap debut off a mark of 85 at the track as he ran out an impressive winner of the small runner field. Subsequently, he was hardly disgraced off marks of 92 and 93 when finishing less than 7L behind the very talented Wooten Bassett before finishing midfield in the Listed 2 YO Trophy at Redcar which rounded off his 2YO campaign.

Last year Chiswick Bey was restricted to only 2 starts as a 3 year old so he either suffered an injury or else is difficult to get ready. On his reappearance, he looked as if he needed the run and on is 2nd start during the last campaign he ran a very good race to finish 1.25L behind stablemate Common Touch off a mark of 90, a horse I rate quite highly. The form of that race is strong with Common Touch winning off a 5lb higher mark on his next start with some authority and he has also been beaten by less than a length off a 12lb higher mark. Chiswick Bey's last start came on the back of a 11 month absence where he was disappointing but I'm putting that down as him needing the run. Today he faces a Class 3 7f event at Newcastle, a track where he has been successful on his only start. He's now back to a handicap mark of 89 and considering his 2nd last start was an excellent 2nd behind a progressive rival in a Class 2 event I don't understand how he's a 20/1 shot. Furthermore, Shane B Kelly takes off a further 5lb which should assist his cause. If stripping fitter from his reappearance run, I can see him running a massive race at a price that vastly overstates his chances in my opinion.

The other horse Eastern Hills I put up last night at 11/1 but he's drifted out to 25s which is pretty ludacris in my eyes. This 7 year old was progressive at Southwell over the winter and on his last start he was a very big eye catcher at Doncaster. Off the same mark, it didn't seem that his jockey Miss D Lenge had quite come to grips with riding yet as she was basically sitting motionless the whole journey, administering the odd slap of the whip. To my eyes, she had a lot of horse left under her and she was only beaten by 2.5L in the end. The form of that race is strong with the winner No Poppy scoring on her next start off a 5lb higher mark and the 2nd Levitate, who reopposes today, was only beaten by 0.5L off a 4lb higher mark on his only subsequent start. Kirsty Milczarek takes over today and should get a lot more out of her mount.

Will be doing a RFC on the pair as well

rossom

5.20 Aintree

Arisea 18/1

I think the price of this 9 year old at 18/1 looks absolutely massive with this the first time in ages she'll get ideal conditions to suit. Arisea was last seen earlier this month where she finished a very respectable 7.25L beaten 5th at Kelso off this mark on ground that wasn't ideal and over a trip that was probably on the short side. I remember distinctly James Moffatt saying that this 9 year old needs good ground to be seen at best effect and I certainly tend to agree with him. Off a mark of 110 today, I think she is still definitely capable of winning off her current handicap mark with her last success coming back in November at Catterick over this trip and on this ground. That day Joel Belbin, who is on board again today, gave Arisea a masterful hold up ride and he seemed to have a fair bit left up his sleeve as Arisea scored in the Conditional Jockeys handicap by 1.75L. That was off a mark of 106 and I'm confident she's definitely better than her mark of 110 if on song and on good ground. Todays race is again a Conditional Jockeys race and Belbin, who gets on very well with this mare, takes off a very handy 8lb off his back. Moreover, Arisea gets to take on her own sex today which should make life a little easier for her. Although trainer James Moffatt isn't in the best form at present, I'm confident of a very big showing from Arisea which will hopefully land Belbin his 3rd win on her.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

5.40 GOWRAN PARK

ORAFINITIS 14/1 NAP

Been waiting for her to make her seasonal reappearance and your going to have to trust me on this one! I've followed her since her debut two years ago and I know that she is good enough to win this. Orafinitis made an extremely promising debut back in July 2010 when finishing only 5.25L beaten by the excellent Misty For Me. After this and for the rest of her 2 year old campaign she was desperately disappointing, which has unfortunately been a trend for a filly I think is much better than what she has shown. After an 8 month break, Orafinitis made her seasonal debut as a 3 year old at Gowran Park last May of 7f off a mark of 56 and finally fulfilled some of the promise I know she possesses when shedding her maiden tag to win by 1L under the guidance of the trainer's son. After getting squeezed up early on, she had to come wide around the field and I think she had more up her sleeve than her winning distance said. After this, trainer Desmond McDonogh said "She ran well on her debut last year but lost the plot afterwards and that surprised me. She's been going well at home and is a well-bred filly. It's lovely ground out there and it seemed to make all the difference"

I really expected her to kick on from that but again she disappointed. She ran one noteworthy race since then when a decent 4.25L beaten 5th after a 3 month break, the only time that Declan McDonogh has been on since, but that was on heavy ground which I don't think really suited. As a result of running pretty poorly on the AW, Orafinitis' handicap mark has plumetted to a mark of 52 and she is now 4lb below winning at the track 11 months ago. She seems to reserve her best form for when fresh as her 3 best runs came either on debut or on the back of breaks, with the last on ground too heavy. Tomorrow, Declan gets back on board and its a massive positive as she returns to the scene of her victory 11 months ago. She's stepped up to 1m which looked like it would suit on her victory last month and the good ground looks ideal as long as the rain stays away. The trainer's last victory came last year with a double on the day Orafintis' won but that isn't a concern to me as he was winless for a similar period prior to that. He has another runner Articilitis who I'll be backing in a double with Orafintis in the 6.40 (although I fancy 3 others more in the race) in the hope he can achieve a similar feat again. Although it may not seem an overly convincing argument, you're going to have to take my trust on her. I know this horse and a very similar pattern to last year has emerged. With the draw in stall 6 no issue, I'm going on large as long as the rain stays away.

That was my write up that day Moscow if you want a read

MoscowFlyer

Cheers Rossom, hopefully it can run a big race.

Interesting runner here in the 7.20 at Dundalk in LIKE MAGIC. Off the track for nearly 300 days now but it's at an interesting mark. Worth an E/W punt I think. As big as 14/1 in places.