If Greece Leaves the €uro

A_Sober_Paddy

So I don't know if this is the correct place to post this...and if its been posted already I've not been able to find it...

If the Greek's leave the €uro what are the potential consequences for us here in Ireland?

Would we be next in line to leave the currency too?

Bullseye1

According to Noonan no more Feta Cheese on the shelves. What a joke of a policitican.

A_Sober_Paddy

Bullseye1 wrote: »

According to Noonan no more Feta Cheese on the shelves. What a joke of a policitican.

Did he actually say such a thing?

Transpirant

I will pray for Ireland to LEAVE the Euro. We are bankrupt slaves to Germany with a gutless Government in office at present.

The bankers are in faulty in the first place when they loan money to Ireland with High interest rate and the same time they made BETS that Ireland cannot pay the loans. The problem started in the FRANKFURT stealing of the money. The German banks gave Anglo Irish Bank Billions of money but Ireland a small country doesn't have this money and this is the problem we face. So why trust European politicians now??? The German banks loaned money to Ireland with the highest rate to force Ireland to pay for their speculative investments that turned sour. Ireland paid the Germans for gamblers that never did anything for Ireland and who will never reinvest their money in Ireland again. NOW the european countries they will LOAN money to Ireland but they want Ireland to OBEY their demands. I SAY WE SHOULD GET THE HELL OUT OF EURO AND FORCE GERMANY TO PAY THE MONEY FOR THEIR OWN BANKS.

Richard tea

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Did he actually say such a thing?

He did indeed. It was another cringe moment:o

A_Sober_Paddy

Transpirant wrote: »

I will pray for Ireland to LEAVE the Euro. We are bankrupt slaves to Germany with a gutless Government in office at present.

The bankers are in faulty in the first place when they loan money to Ireland with High interest rate and the same time they made BETS that Ireland cannot pay the loans. The problem started in the FRANKFURT stealing of the money. The German banks gave Anglo Irish Bank Billions of money but Ireland a small country doesn't have this money and this is the problem we face. So why trust European politicians now??? The German banks loaned money to Ireland with the highest rate to force Ireland to pay for their speculative investments that turned sour. Ireland paid the Germans for gamblers that never did anything for Ireland and who will never reinvest their money in Ireland again. NOW the european countries they will LOAN money to Ireland but they want Ireland to OBEY their demands. I SAY WE SHOULD GET THE HELL OUT OF EURO AND FORCE GERMANY TO PAY THE MONEY FOR THEIR OWN BANKS.

If we were to leave the the €uro, we would revert back to the punt yeah?

So what would happen to money in the banks, credit Unions etc... would it be automatically converted into the new currency? At a conversion rate set by Europe?

Dotsie~tmp

So what would happen to money in the banks, credit Unions etc... would it be automatically converted into the new currency? At a conversion rate set by Europe?

It would float like any other and be valued by markets. That means down for us as we need to monetise some of out debts as we usually do. If u have moeny in the bank its converted whether u like it or not. Cash is stamped. Export controls instigated. Thats why Greeks are taking a billion a day out now it seems. Businesses exporting takings at the end of each day abroad. Bank liquidity + Cash crunch.

There is no leaving (you wont jump from a burning building before the flames lick you). You get forced out when u run out of money and have to print the new stuff. But remember before this happens come the panics. Panics move faster than banks collapses and are completely irrational taking good with bad.

When Greeks cant access their money or savings and see its value slashed in conversion what do u think people in Ireland, Belgium, Italy, Spain & Portugal will do? Not worry one bit? If they let fear take over then its done. Events move to fast for reactions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9270884/Debt-crisis-Greek-euro-exit-looms-closer-as-banks-crumble.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2012/may/16/cost-greek-exit-euro-emerges

Hillariously we will be debating a treaty which may already be defunct. While the chips fall.

A_Sober_Paddy

Dotsie~tmp wrote: »

It would float like any other and be valued by markets. That means down for us as we need to monetise some of out debts as we usually do. If u have moeny in the bank its converted whether u like it or not. Cash is stamped. Export controls instigated. Thats why Greeks are taking a billion a day out now it seems. Businesses exporting takings at the end of each day abroad. Bank liquidity + Cash crunch.

There is no leaving (you wont jump from a burning building before the flames lick you). You get forced out when u run out of money and have to print the new stuff. But remember before this happens come the panics. Panics move faster than banks collapses and are completely irrational taking good with bad.

When Greeks cant access their money or savings and see its value slashed in conversion what do u think people in Ireland, Belgium, Italy, Spain & Portugal will do? Not worry one bit? If they let fear take over then its done. Events move to fast for reactions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9270884/Debt-crisis-Greek-euro-exit-looms-closer-as-banks-crumble.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2012/may/16/cost-greek-exit-euro-emerges

Hillariously we will be debating a treaty which may already be defunct. While the chips fall.

What do you mean cash is stamped?

Dotsie~tmp

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

What do you mean cash is stamped?

Rubber stamped. As in this isnt a Euro anymore its a Punt. They will need to keep as much capital in the country as possible. All the cash in banks and in reserve get done during a banking holiday until it can be exchanged for new currency. Its why people try to get money out and into some other asset or currency so its value holds. I have f*ck all but if I had a few hundred grand I'd be moving some to an Aussie a/c and buy other hard currency to hedge.

A_Sober_Paddy

Dotsie~tmp wrote: »

Rubber stamped. As in this isnt a Euro anymore its a Punt. They will need to keep as much capital in the country as possible. All the cash in banks and in reserve get done during a banking holiday until it can be exchanged for new currency. Its why people try to get money out and into some other asset or currency so its value holds.

So even my euro I have at home would be stamped(or considered stamped)? Even if the Euro is still in use across Europe?

Dotsie~tmp

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

So even my euro I have at home would be stamped(or considered stamped)? Even if the Euro is still in use across Europe?

Only if your were stupid enough to give it to them ;D . Its a bit more complicated because notes are marked from which country they came and notes from different countries are in free circulation. So Europe my stop taking "crisp" new irish notes but couldnt distinguish used ones. Here banks may not be alowed to convert any Euro cash but you will find it possible on black market. Its a very chaotic thing if it came to pass.

We are getting into the whole link between confidence and the value of a piece of paper now. A simple stamp can make two identical note different value. Weird stuff. Or just take it up north.

A_Sober_Paddy

Dotsie~tmp wrote: »

Only if your were stupid enough to give it to them ;D . Its a bit more complicated because notes are marked from which country they came and notes from different countries are in free circulation. So Europe my stop taking "crisp" new irish notes but couldnt distinguish used ones. Here banks may not be alowed to convert any Euro cash but you will find it possible on black market. Its a very chaotic thing if it came to pass.

Well here's hoping it doesn't happen. I have a few bob saved up and would like it to be of some value...

What currency would be considered strong, if I were to convert my savings into a different currency?

Dotsie~tmp

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Well here's hoping it doesn't happen. I have a few bob saved up and would like it to be of some value...

What currency would be considered strong, if I were to convert my savings into a different currency?

I wont offer any financial advice. Just be alert to your options and the situation. Try here, this board is about financial stuff. http://www.askaboutmoney.com/

Dotsie~tmp

Here found this.

http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.php?t=163133

Remember this isnt a foregone conclusuion! Its just a risk thats increased. Dont get paranoid. Watch the news.

fries

I would not underestimate the stubborn nature of Noonan or others in Fine Gael. Kenny's position is tenuous and if Ireland becomes a dumping ground for Bank debts for the hard-working Irishman, he will vote out Noonan. And we know what can happen when Irish-voters feel "put-upon''

Benny_Cake

Bullseye1 wrote: »

According to Noonan no more Feta Cheese on the shelves. What a joke of a policitican.

Ridiculous on so many levels, not least because Feta cheese (and other Greek products) would become a lot cheaper if Greece was to pull out of the Euro surely?

A_Sober_Paddy

Benny_Cake wrote: »

Ridiculous on so many levels, not least because Feta cheese (and other Greek products) would become a lot cheaper if Greece was to pull out of the Euro surely?

Yeah mate, I was thinking that as their currency wouldn't be worth a thing

Cabaal

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

Yeah mate, I was thinking that as their currency wouldn't be worth a thing

Yep, so we'd get cheaper cheese but the people in Greece would have a whole lot of problems investment wise, government wise etc

Lantus

what is now happening in greece should of happened from day 1.

Greece will get a massivley devalued currency, shed most of its debt and then (assuming it fixes its corrupt ways) should start to grow sooner rather than later. It will become more like Iceland which is also thriving these days.

The truth is that not letting the banks fail or we will explode was just as much hubris as believing in the infinite property hype or the soft landing rhetoric that we have been sold over the last 5+ years. Our leaders have sold us lemons at every turn whether in boom or bust and proved beyond all doubt that they really are not the right people to either understand or run economies.

Anyway....After Greece leaves there will be moderate money transfers across europe, most notably exiting from Spain and Ireland. This will put excessive strain on these countries and their debts which may result in one or both having to leave the euro. If I had to bet on ireland or spain leaving it would be ireland every time. (too small to make any impact)

At the same time Greece will be in the grip of a humanitarian disaster as we wittness first hand the total melt down of a modern country into virtual anarchy. Expect to see mass emmigration into all neighbouring states. This may prompt countries like France or Germany to move their armies (subtely) towards their borders to prevent an uncrontrolled influx. Population of greece is 11 million.

Protectionsim will grip Europe as individual member states run to shore up their borders. The UK is already talking about a financial firewall being in place which is of concern because rareey do countries speak of defense before an attack has begun.

In this case they must believe the attack is immiment.

My own personal concern is that I will be able to feed my family. While we take food for granted it is reliant on the same fragile money markets and tradeing that is currently coming undone. While I could live without a bank for a good while if it shut, my ability to go without food however for more than a day is somewhat lacking.....

Cabaal

Lantus wrote: »

what is now happening in greece should of happened from day 1.

Greece will get a massivley devalued currency, shed most of its debt and then (assuming it fixes its corrupt ways) should start to grow sooner rather than later. It will become more like Iceland which is also thriving these days.

The assumption that it won't have corruption issues is a massive one,

As we've seen from any party (SF included) when people get into power they are good at fiddling the system in some way or another....even if they are not in government government officials will try screw things abit.

I always find it amusing that people always opt for Iceland, what about Argentina? (remember to keep in mind it has lots of natural resources compared to greece)

Lantus

Cabaal wrote: »

The assumption that it won't have corruption issues is a massive one,

As we've seen from any party (SF included) when people get into power they are good at fiddling the system in some way or another....even if they are not in government government officials will try screw things abit.

I always find it amusing that people always opt for Iceland, what about Argentina? (remember to keep in mind it has lots of natural resources compared to greece)

Interesting point. Firstly I totally agree about greece and it's political problems and inbuilt corruption that pervades every walk of life and social level. The most wealthy and rich think nothing of declaring silly low wages on the 'voluntary tax forms' and basically getting away with paying little or no tax. This pretty much goes for everyone in Greece and is a cultural problem. It's also a key reason why their economy has failed so badly. (Everyone wanted to get at least €2 out of an economy they only wanted to put €1 into.)

Argentina sufferred in the 30's from military rule which basically destroyed it's economy as the notion of free trade or market conditions were destroyed in much the same way as N.Korea. i.e. The government wanted to move from agriculture to industry without any regard for how or the implications to economies or people.

The systemic corruption and cultural belief in not paying tax in Greece is so ingrained it may take a generation or TWO before we see a country that functions in the normal sense of the word.

tits magee

i quite like feta cheese

karlth

Cabaal wrote: »

I always find it amusing that people always opt for Iceland, what about Argentina?

The Argentinian government defaulted on its debts, the Iceland government didn't. A common misunderstanding.

fries

Former Greek Prime Minister Papandreou wanted to hold a Referendum, and the EU (under the control of the Francfort Group, run by Merkel and Sarkozy) had him deposed.


Now Merkel is instructing them to hold a Referendum. To coin Nigel Farage's phrase: "Who the hell do these people think they are." Greece is a Sovereign country. It isn't up to Merkel or anyone else to tell them what to do.


The EU is little more than a grotesque Dictatorship. Ireland doesn't belong in an organization that seeks to bully and dictate to other nations.


Disgraceful.

meglome

fries wrote: »

Former Greek Prime Minister Papandreou wanted to hold a Referendum, and the EU (under the control of the Francfort Group, run by Merkel and Sarkozy) had him deposed.


Now Merkel is instructing them to hold a Referendum. To coin Nigel Farage's phrase: "Who the hell do these people think they are." Greece is a Sovereign country. It isn't up to Merkel or anyone else to tell them what to do.


The EU is little more than a grotesque Dictatorship. Ireland doesn't belong in an organization that seeks to bully and dictate to other nations.


Disgraceful.

How exactly did Merkel and Sarkosy 'depose' Papandreou? Sent troops did they?
See the problem with what you saying there is Papandreou's own party didn't support his calls for a referendum.

And quite honestly quoting Nigel Farage to back up your 'argument' just further shows it up for what it is.

Off to the conspiracy forum with you.

kraggy

Transpirant wrote: »

I will pray for Ireland to LEAVE the Euro. We are bankrupt slaves to Germany with a gutless Government in office at present.

The bankers are in faulty in the first place when they loan money to Ireland with High interest rate and the same time they made BETS that Ireland cannot pay the loans. The problem started in the FRANKFURT stealing of the money. The German banks gave Anglo Irish Bank Billions of money but Ireland a small country doesn't have this money and this is the problem we face. So why trust European politicians now??? The German banks loaned money to Ireland with the highest rate to force Ireland to pay for their speculative investments that turned sour. Ireland paid the Germans for gamblers that never did anything for Ireland and who will never reinvest their money in Ireland again. NOW the european countries they will LOAN money to Ireland but they want Ireland to OBEY their demands. I SAY WE SHOULD GET THE HELL OUT OF EURO AND FORCE GERMANY TO PAY THE MONEY FOR THEIR OWN BANKS.

If we left the Euro, we'd still have to pay the debt of the bailout but will be using our new Punt, which will be devalued which will in turn make the debt even higher.

that's my understanding anyway. Maybe I'm wrong and someone else could clear it up?

seamus

kraggy wrote: »

If we left the Euro, we'd still have to pay the debt of the bailout but will be using our new Punt, which will be devalued which will in turn make the debt even higher.

that's my understanding anyway. Maybe I'm wrong and someone else could clear it up?

Yeah, that's pretty much it. However, given that the value of punt would collapse at least by half, we would like end up in an Iceland scenario where we have to default on large chunks of debt. Good? Maybe, but it would mean that our bonds get trashed to junk status, leaving us functionally incapable of borrowing any money from anywhere.
Which means a drastic increase in domestic taxes and massive slashes in all areas of public spending - 25% or more.

Despite the government backing of the Irish banks, there would be an exodus of savings held in Irish bank accounts into Euro or USD accounts in order to try and save the value of them. Banking collapse would soon follow, resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs (most likely unemployment would double to about 30%) as well as a(nother) big jump in government debt as the banks' debts are underpinned by government guarantees.

So we'd have a worthless currency, record unemployment and a government crippled by billions more debt that can't borrow any more money from anywhere.

oscarBravo

seamus wrote: »

So we'd have a worthless currency, record unemployment and a government crippled by billions more debt that can't borrow any more money from anywhere.

...but hey, at least we'd be "in control of our own destiny".

Lantus

seamus wrote: »

Yeah, that's pretty much it. However, given that the value of punt would collapse at least by half, we would like end up in an Iceland scenario where we have to default on large chunks of debt. Good? Maybe, but it would mean that our bonds get trashed to junk status, leaving us functionally incapable of borrowing any money from anywhere.
Which means a drastic increase in domestic taxes and massive slashes in all areas of public spending - 25% or more.

Despite the government backing of the Irish banks, there would be an exodus of savings held in Irish bank accounts into Euro or USD accounts in order to try and save the value of them. Banking collapse would soon follow, resulting in the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs (most likely unemployment would double to about 30%) as well as a(nother) big jump in government debt as the banks' debts are underpinned by government guarantees.

So we'd have a worthless currency, record unemployment and a government crippled by billions more debt that can't borrow any more money from anywhere.

what ever happens we are still enslaved to a monetary system run and controlled by a small cabal of bankers. (Unless we demolish/shut down/dismantle/ged rid of central banks)

The lifelong scam of interest and fractionalised banking enslaves humanity to a lifetime of debt that can neve be escaped from as all money is derived from debt.

When we talk about devaluing and printing money what we are doing is making everything in our lives worth less and less, often to the advantage of other countries that can now exploit and purchase the resources of that country for a lot less. The people do not benefit in the long run.

oscarBravo

Lantus wrote: »

what ever happens we are still enslaved to a monetary system run and controlled by a small cabal of bankers. (Unless we demolish/shut down/dismantle/ged rid of central banks)

And replace them with...?

A_Sober_Paddy

oscarBravo wrote: »

And replace them with...?

Hugs and Love...:D

Lantus

oscarBravo wrote: »

And replace them with...?

In the short term governments (the state and the people of that country) should have their own bank. The government should be able to borrow currency without interest being accrued.

Interest is one of the biggest scams the banks have running which ensures we will never be able to pay back any debt fully.

free banking could be an options and it has worked in many countries.

Looking further forward you'd really need to look at getting rid of currency alltogether. It's slavery in all but name.

oscarBravo

Lantus wrote: »

In the short term governments (the state and the people of that country) should have their own bank. The government should be able to borrow currency without interest being accrued.

What incentive is there to lend money other than the profit motive that interest provides? Also, without central banks, who issues currency for the government to borrow?

Interest is one of the biggest scams the banks have running which ensures we will never be able to pay back any debt fully.

I have borrowed money at interest, and paid it back - your argument that no debt is ever repayable is simply untrue.

free banking could be an options and it has worked in many countries.

[citation needed]

Looking further forward you'd really need to look at getting rid of currency alltogether. It's slavery in all but name.

And replace it with...?

Lantus

oscarBravo wrote: »

Also, without central banks, who issues currency for the government to borrow? I have borrowed money at interest, and paid it back - your argument that no debt is ever repayable is simply untrue.

All money is created by the bank at some point and as you correctly say given out with interest, if we as a nation had to pay back all debt it would be impossible without the creation of more money which as you correctly point out is lent out by the bank at interest.....

oh dear.....epic fail.

AVN_1

A_Sober_Paddy wrote: »

So I don't know if this is the correct place to post this...and if its been posted already I've not been able to find it...

If the Greek's leave the €uro what are the potential consequences for us here in Ireland?

Would we be next in line to leave the currency too?

It would be great if we would be the next in line to leave the Euro Zone, but the hard truth is that Germany wouldn't allow us to leave as much as it doesn't allow the Greeks to leave it.

mike65

Does anyone think that there is, wittingly or not, an atmosphere being created to see Greece ejected from the Euro - at the hands of the market where everyone else can then shrug as if nothing could be done it stop it happening?

The Corinthian

Lantus wrote: »

Greece will get a massivley devalued currency, shed most of its debt and then (assuming it fixes its corrupt ways) should start to grow sooner rather than later. It will become more like Iceland which is also thriving these days.

Well no. To begin with presuming that Greece is able to relaunch the Drachma, without catastrophic runs on all the banks and retaining some confidence in the new currency, and then devalues this new Drachma, then most of it's debt will balloon in size.

This is because most of it's debt is still going to be in Euros, as it was borrowed from abroad and devaluing the Drachma by 50% against the Euro will just mean that they will have to pay twice as many Drachma as before for this debt. All before you consider the likely prospect that with Greece out, the Euro could appreciate in value - making it even worse.

Most articles I've read pretty much agree that Greece would default and that this would lead to a freezing of all foreign credit and investment. Combined with the flight of deposits from Greece (who wants to see their savings halved overnight), you're likely to see close to a collapse of their financial system.

I'd put even money on a coup there inside of 24 months of leaving the Euro.

Our leaders have sold us lemons at every turn whether in boom or bust and proved beyond all doubt that they really are not the right people to either understand or run economies.

That's democracy though. We vote for people because they're popular, not because they're competent or qualified.

As to being sold lemons, I'd agree, but unfortunately lemons are all that are on sale at the moment. Like it or not, there's no good solution to this - only the least bad.

Anyway....After Greece leaves there will be moderate money transfers across europe, most notably exiting from Spain and Ireland. This will put excessive strain on these countries and their debts which may result in one or both having to leave the euro. If I had to bet on ireland or spain leaving it would be ireland every time. (too small to make any impact)

How exactly would it "put excessive strain on these countries and their debts" leading to a Euro exit? The main danger unfortunately is that market confidence will get jittery, drive up bond rates beyond what is feasible to pay and we end up in a cascade effect. This will ultimately be the critical barometer.

Honestly, whether this will occur or not is a hotly debated issue. Portugal, and not Ireland or Spain, is apparently the most at risk. If Ireland left the Euro, then we'd have to default; reverting to the Punt and then devaluing would end up bloating our already massive 1,093% foreign debt to GDP ratio which would be unsustainable even if the EU/IMF were still willing to bail us out, which of course they won't.

My own personal concern is that I will be able to feed my family. While we take food for granted it is reliant on the same fragile money markets and tradeing that is currently coming undone. While I could live without a bank for a good while if it shut, my ability to go without food however for more than a day is somewhat lacking.....

Open an account in Germany and put your savings there and keep a minimum in your Irish bank account. For those with very few savings (less than €5,000) then just take it out as cash and keep it safe - if we revert to the Punt, only the money in accounts will be converted, Euro cash will remain Euro cash (although the government may try to curb this somehow).

And those with houses, remember that those houses will be valued in devalued Punt, which will be a mixed blessing; on one side your home will halve in Euro value, but on the up side it will become a bargain for anyone still with Euro - like a German.