Tuesday 15th May

MoscowFlyer

I have two quite strong fancies for tomorrow, Im too tired for writeups so I'll make it brief.

8.50 Kempton - Hamis Al Bin 7/1

I just think there is so much more to come from this horse. Last time out at Wolverhampton it won by 3 1/2 lengths but it was such an impressive performance and I think it can go even better now handicapping.

5.00 Beverley - Ma Kellys 9/1

Eyecatcher last time out even if it was in the mud (well beaten by a really well handicapped horse) and I've been awaiting it's reappearance. It comes tomorrow evening.

rossom

4.20 Hereford Ramses De Marcigny 7/1
5.20 Hereford Bahr Nothing 16/1

I'll get write ups done tomorrow

MF I was also very keen on Ma Kellys until I saw Micky Hammond was 0-31 at the track which really put me off!

kellier180

Bahr nothing into 9/2 on paddypower got it at 14/1 an hour ago

MoscowFlyer

Ah thanks for the info rossom, maybe he is due a winner

That last one at Hereford you tipped is now into 9/2! :eek: I haven't it backed atm and won't just yet. Gonna wait for 1st show as it will drift back out after such a big move early.

rossom

Clearly no point in me doing a write up on Bahr Nothing now! He's back to his last winning mark of 94, back to a Class 5 for the first time since then and gets good ground (which he needs) for the first time since last August. Before his last and only win, he had about a 3 month break and runs after a similar one today which should have him freshened up. Throw in Dickie Johnson back on for the first time since last August and chuck in Tim Vaughan's cracking form and I get why he has been absolutely smashed!

Local_Chap

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

That last one at Hereford you tipped is now into 9/2! :eek: I haven't it backed atm and won't just yet. Gonna wait for 1st show as it will drift back out after such a big move early.

Into 5/2 now!

the groutch

move over Tom Segal

rossom

4.20 Hereford

Ramses De Marcigny 9/2

Quite like the look of Paul Nicholls' unexposed 7 year old who I think could be potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 105. He comes here on the back of a break from January and I think its very interesting that he had pretty much the exact same break last year when successful on his only win over hurdles. Although chasing today, the form of that maiden hurdle looks strong in relation to Ramses De Marcigny's handicap mark with the 2nd (who carried 5lb less than this 7 year old that day) coming a decent 2nd off mark of 109 and the 3rd (who carried 10lb less) winning twice subsequently off a mark of 105. I think the return to good ground will definitely help RDM cause. He had a profile of the sort of horse who would improve when sent chasing and with Ryan Mahon taking a valuable 3lb off, Nicholls only runner at the track could take all the beating, especially with the trainer in very good form and having a 31% strike rate with his chasers at the course. I put him up at 7s last night but still think he is well worth a bet at 9/2.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

4.20 Hereford

Ramses De Marcigny 9/2

Quite like the look of Paul Nicholls' unexposed 7 year old who I think could be potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 105. He comes here on the back of a break from January and I think its very interesting that he had pretty much the exact same break last year when successful on his only win over hurdles. Although chasing today, the form of that maiden hurdle looks strong in relation to Ramses De Marcigny's handicap mark with the 2nd (who carried 5lb less than this 7 year old that day) coming a decent 2nd off mark of 109 and the 3rd (who carried 10lb less) winning twice subsequently off a mark of 105. I think the return to good ground will definitely help RDM cause. He had a profile of the sort of horse who would improve when sent chasing and with Ryan Mahon taking a valuable 3lb off, Nicholls only runner at the track could take all the beating, especially with the trainer in very good form and having a 31% strike rate with his chasers at the course. I put him up at 7s last night but still think he is well worth a bet at 9/2.

Got that horribly wrong about him looking like the sort of horse who would improve going chasing. Couldn't jump to save his life.

MoscowFlyer

9/2 1st show for Bahr

Ma Kellys traveled OK-ish but was never in with a chance of winning but one to keep an eye on I think

Lapin

Bhar left it too late.

Impressive run to take 2nd though.

rossom

At least e/w landed with Bahr Nothing but looked a difficult ride. Winner very well backed before off and looked a cut above the rest.

MoscowFlyer

Yeah, good shout rossom!

Hasim Al Bin has been backed in most of today, fingers crossed!

rossom

8.50 Kempton

Abhaath 18/1

Although he looks more exposed than a lot of the field I still think Abhaath looks relatively well handicapped and if improving now a 3 year old I think he could go close for Ed Dunlop on his debut for the yard. Until now, Abhaath was Saeed Bin Suroor and Godolphin and although he's probably been a bit disappointing I think the fact that Hamdan Al Maktoum has picked him up demonstrates that he is still fancied to make some progression. After making a poor debut when an odds on shot last June, he ran a much better race at Salisbury on his 2nd start when finishing a decent 4th beaten by 3.5L. The form of that race is strong with the winner Stipulate a very impressive winner of a Listed race and now a 103 rated animal. Furthermore, the 2nd Devdas has won off a mark of 75 and has been consist off 81 and the 6th Gabrials Gift won his next start and is rated 84 on the AW. On the basis of that run, Abhaath's current mark of 71 looks pretty workable.

After disappointing again on his 3rd start, Abhaath was handed an opening handicap mark of 68 and ran a very good race to finish a 1/2L beaten 2nd switched to handicaps at Wolves last September. He had to switch wide coming into the final turn and was never closer than at the finish suggesting he'd improve for the step up from the 7f trip, and he gets a mile for the first time in his career tonight. The form of that race looks strong with the winner repeating that feat on his next start and the very unlucky in running Come On Blue Chip winning his next two and succeeding off an 18lb higher mark this year. 3 starts back, Abhaath ran another very good race when following home his then stable mate Oscan at Brighton off a mark of 70 in 2nd in first time cheekpieces. From his wide stall, Abhaath had to run wide throughout and again stayed on all the way to the line as if a step up in trip would suit. The 3rd and 4th have won again since and there was nothing wrong with that effort.

2 starts back off a mark of 72 Abhaath adopted front running tactics for the first time when finishing a 3.25L beaten 3rd. He faded in the final furlong as the impressive winner flashed past him and I don't think the tactics that day really suited. Even still, the form of that race is solid with the first 2 home performing well off higher marks and he didn't lose much in defeat. On his final start last November, he was disappointing but with that being his 7th run in 4 months as a 2 year old I'm willing to forgive it. Tonight Abhaath is stepped up to a Class 4 after being primarily campaigned in Class 5 races last year and he'll have to be very sharp to land this after 6 months off the track. Retained Al Maktoum jockey Paul Hanagan takes the ride tonight which represents his sole action of the day which could be significant. Cheekpieces are dispensed with tonight and the first time tongue tie is applied tonight which may bring about some improvement. Trainer Ed Dunlop is in good form and the draw should hopefully allow him to settle in behind the pace on the rail. Although he's unproven after a break and could easily need the run, he represents Dunlop's only runner tonight and I think the 18/1 on offer negates the fear of the break. Although up against some unexposed horses that may be a fair bit better than their current marks, I think he is much too big at his current price and hopefully he'll be ready first time up to land this race.

MoscowFlyer

Never got a good run and had to go the long way around but not sure there was much there anyway. Ah well, can't win em all.