Sinn Fein get their figures all mixed up

jacko1

this is highly embarrassing for a party that wants us to trust them with money

http://www.labour.ie/press/listing/13364074033510969.html

On the same leaflet they claim the figure to be €160million on ome page and €500million on another!

thecommietommy

jacko1 wrote: »

this is highly embarrassing for a party that wants us to trust them with money

http://www.labour.ie/press/listing/13364074033510969.html

On the same leaflet they claim the figure to be €160million on ome page and €500million on another!

Sums dont add up ? SF should be in government, Noonans sums will never add up. They said we will grow our way out of recession - and GNP has fallen !!!! We won't need a second bailout - while all the experts to almost a man are saying we will !!!

meglome

thecommietommy wrote: »

Sums dont add up ? SF should be in government,

They may need to get actually elected for that. Though in the great Irish tradition they are telling enough spoofs for it.

thecommietommy wrote: »

They said we will grow our way out of recession - and GNP has fallen !!!!

Indeed. How do we do that and also stop borrowing one third of all government spending which we are now?

thecommietommy wrote: »

We won't need a second bailout - while all the experts to almost a man are saying we will !!!

We might or might not need one, but being at the tender mercy of the markets would not be enjoyable right now. So let's be safe.

Wild Bill

SF runs the risk of making the same mistake the current Government did in getting to power by telling untruths; or at least not telling the full truth. (The FG and Labour lot simply lied through their teeth over and over).

In order to escape this financial disaster and get growth going we must default; and it is almost as important that we leave the euro - assuming there is still a euro to leave.

But to survive we must first achieve a primary budgetary surplus - or the ability to print punts.

Either will be extremely painful in the short run; the only rational SF position would be to let the major axe fall on Public Service pay and pensions while partly protecting welfare. (The thought of all those Garda and Judicial and banker pensions turning to dust should surely cheer some of them up!)

That's the kind of choice that lies ahead. If we had done that 4 years ago we'd be on the road to recovery by now. Instead the bottom is still a long way off.

The current national debt is unrepayable. That is the beginning, middle and end of this debate.

Until parties start addressing the consequences that flow from that and formulate policies that take that reality into account we'll continue to get the la-la policies of FF/FG/Labour.

SF rightly see those policies are obscene and doomed to fail - but SF doesn't seem willing to spell out the reality that it knows damn well lies ahead.

I suppose 'cos if they did ye'd never elect them. Head-in-the-sand seems to be the favourite Irish stance.

thecommietommy

meglome wrote: »

They may need to get actually elected for that. Though in the great Irish tradition they are telling enough spoofs for it.

Unlike FG/Labour :eek: " We'll try and get a write down of the debt " - Enda. " It will be Labour's way, not Frankfort's way " - Eammon.

Are you going to tell me we can trust these same people on voting yes ??

Indeed. How do we do that and also stop borrowing one third of all government spending which we are now?

Ask a FGer, I'm not the one who said " we will grow our way out of recession " and now GNP is falling.

We might or might not need one, but being at the tender mercy of the markets would not be enjoyable right now. So let's be safe.

Chelsea might or might not win the Champions league as well, no point giving promisies they will win when you privately know very different.

TehDagsBass

thecommietommy wrote: »

while all the experts to almost a man are saying we will !!!

So what you're saying is that you'll trust the experts on this, but won't trust them when they say to vote Yes for an EU treaty or that SF's policies are unrealistic?

I'm so, so surprised.

kyle123

On the end Ireland even though it's a country it should be run as a company. We never should have hot this debt but that Nama issue is a seperate tin of worms. Some say we can't afford to pay others say we can't afford to continue paying. Now I'm now maths genious but How are we ever mento pay back 130 billion? It's insane.
We can pay and pay but even in the Celtic tiger it didn't go down and it's mento in a recession? I just don't get it. That's over 26 grand on ever citizens head. You have a baby in5 mins? The second there born there 26grand in debt before it takes a breath. So I don't see he we can possibly repay it. You can cut and cut but it's never goin to erase it. It's a sad reality but it's true we can refinance and get it down a bit but it's just goin to be passed on to future generations and all because of the selfish and stupidity of a few.

Wild Bill

kyle123 wrote: »

It's a sad reality but it's true we can refinance and get it down a bit but it's just goin to be passed on to future generations and all because of the selfish and stupidity of a few.

Nah. We will default. Because we must. The next five are the era of the soup-kitchen and poor pensioners and hardly-paid Civil Servants.

By the time the next generation are leaving school we'll but out of this.

Godge

thecommietommy wrote: »

. They said we will grow our way out of recession - and GNP has fallen !!!!

thecommietommy wrote: »

Ask a FGer, I'm not the one who said " we will grow our way out of recession " and now GNP is falling.

You have said this twice and I have yet to see any official projection that shows GNP is falling in 2012. All of the official projections are for a small amount of growth in 2012. What official source (not doomsday economist or can't count SF source) are you getting this information from?

Godge

Wild Bill wrote: »

Nah. We will default. Because we must. The next five are the era of the soup-kitchen and poor pensioners and hardly-paid Civil Servants.

By the time the next generation are leaving school we'll but out of this.

The theory that we must default is last year's one, yes it is still possible we might default but it is looking less likely. Serious economists are trying to calculate when debt will peak before falling.

It would take another major crisis in Europe featuring someone other than the PIIGS to make is likely.

Chuck Stone

You can't add-up.

You can't shake off demons of the past.

You can't keep your promises...


... you'll go a long way.

Wild Bill

Godge wrote: »

The theory that we must default is last year's one

:pac::pac::pac:

Wild Bill

Godge wrote: »

Serious economists are trying to calculate when debt will peak before falling.

I know, and it's very difficult when most calculators can't get beyond 999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999.

Godge

Wild Bill wrote: »

:pac::pac::pac:

Wild Bill wrote: »

I know, and it's very difficult when most calculators can't get beyond 9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
9999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
9999999999999999999999999.

Obviously you have a keen interest in serious debate.

Default is not on the cards for Ireland at the moment. Last year, the TV economists and the SF/ULA axis of ignorance all said we would have to default by the end of 2011 and here we are, not quite sailing along, but not in a severe storm, and we don't look like capsizing in the middle of 2012. Can you explain clearly the sequence of probable, likely events that will inevitably lead to default (remember your quote - we will default).

Wild Bill

Godge wrote: »

Obviously you have a keen interest in serious debate.

I don't see a serous debate to take a keen interest in, frankly.

Default is not on the cards for Ireland at the moment.

Clearly not; the bail out lasts till late 2013 and we have a Regime committed to supporting it.

Last year, the TV economists and the SF/ULA axis of ignorance all said we would have to default by the end of 2011 and here we are, not quite sailing along, but not in a severe storm, and we don't look like capsizing in the middle of 2012.

I will not answer for the statements of others.

Can you explain clearly the sequence of probable, likely events that will inevitably lead to default (remember your quote - we will default).

There are a number of scenarios - all lead to a definite (not probable) default.

* The bail-out money may not be replaced by a second bail-out when the first runs out. The EU may not be in a position to fund it.

* The Government could find itself unable to meet the terms of the bailout later this year or early next year.

* The bail-out money may run out regardless of what Ireland does; Spain crashing; Greece defaulting (again) - both probable.

* "Best case" - we trudge along for 2 or 4 more years with the debt growing faster than the economy until we cannot meet a repayment.

There are various permutations of the above. There is no possibility of escaping default.

Zero. :cool:

Godge

Wild Bill wrote: »

There are a number of scenarios - all lead to a definite (not probable) default.

* The bail-out money may not be replaced by a second bail-out when the first runs out. The EU may not be in a position to fund it.

* The Government could find itself unable to meet the terms of the bailout later this year or early next year.

* The bail-out money may run out regardless of what Ireland does; Spain crashing; Greece defaulting (again) - both probable.

* "Best case" - we trudge along for 2 or 4 more years with the debt growing faster than the economy until we cannot meet a repayment.

There are various permutations of the above. There is no possibility of escaping default.

Zero. :cool:

I would not rate any of the above as likely to occur and even if some of them occur they do not inevitably end up in default. Furthermore, the limited possibility of any of them happening is in the event of a no vote in the referendum.

You have a very pessimistic outlook which is not shared by the IMF, EU, ECB, Irish Central Bank, ESRI, Department of Finance or anyone other that two groups. They are the SF/ULA axis of ignorance and the populist economists more interested in airtime than economics (you don't need me to tell you who they are, one week of watching Vincent Browne and listening to drivetime radio will let you know). Don't believe those two groups of doom-mongers.

The best case scenario is that the fiscal adjustment over the next few years is helped by natural reductions in public service pay and pensions by natural wastage, by revenue buoyancy as a result of economic growth and inflation, by social welfare fraud detection and limitation of payments to those that deserve them, and finally, by a property tax that acts as an incentive to make the best use of valuable undeveloped sites. Even I don't believe all of the above will ride to our rescue but they paint a scenario vastly different from yours and ensure that not only would we not need a second bailout but that we would return to the markets at a very reasonable rate of interest.

Of course, the most realistic scenario is somewhere between your "end-of-the-world" picture and my "roses-in-the-garden" picture, somewhere were we get out of our problems, maybe with a second bailout, maybe by narrowly avoiding one.

Wild Bill

Godge wrote: »

I would not rate any of the above as likely to occur and even if some of them occur they do not inevitably end up in default. Furthermore, the limited possibility of any of them happening is in the event of a no vote in the referendum.

I guess you would have been predicting a "soft landing" to the property bubble. :rolleyes:

But you have a perfect right to deny reality. It's a free(ish) country. :cool:

Godge

Wild Bill wrote: »

I guess you would have been predicting a "soft landing" to the property bubble. :rolleyes:

But you have a perfect right to deny reality. It's a free(ish) country. :cool:

No, quite the opposite, never believed in a "soft landing", always felt property was overpriced and that the day would come sooner or later.

I am a realist, I look at real figures, our finances are on target. We won't default. Look at this report from today.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0511/eu-lowers-irelands-2012-growth-forecast-to-0-5.html


But even as the article paints the bright picture of us overshooting the 8.6% budget deficit target to reach 8.3%, the article link talks about the EU lowering the 2012 growth forecast. Mind-boggling just like the perpetual doom-mongers.

Wild Bill

Godge wrote: »

No, quite the opposite, never believed in a "soft landing", always felt property was overpriced and that the day would come sooner or later.

I am a realist, I look at real figures, our finances are on target. We won't default. Look at this report from today.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0511/eu-lowers-irelands-2012-growth-forecast-to-0-5.html


But even as the article paints the bright picture of us overshooting the 8.6% budget deficit target to reach 8.3%, the article link talks about the EU lowering the 2012 growth forecast. Mind-boggling just like the perpetual doom-mongers.

OK, I accept that you didn't believe the "soft-landing" line.

Recent revelations show many of those actually peddling it at the time in the Dept of Finance didn't either.

I imagine there is a similar situation today in relation to the fantasy that we can repay the national debt.

And I am not a "perpetual" doom-monger. I simply believe (know) that policies based on the fiction that our debt is sustainable are therefore doomed by definition.

Wild Bill

Godge wrote: »

I am a realist, I look at real figures, our finances are on target. We won't default. Look at this report from today.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0511/eu-lowers-irelands-2012-growth-forecast-to-0-5.html

I have just read the link.

There is a slight difference between getting next years additional borrowing down to a mere 8% of what we propose to spend and the debt itself being sustainable!

Current national debt is €122 billion (27k for ever man, woman and child in the country; about 70k for every person in a job)

And the interest on the debt is raising by about €1,000 every second!

Or €60,000 per minute; €3,600,000 every hour; approx €75 million per day.

That's €500,000,000 per week; a cool billion per fortnight or €26,000,000,000 (26 billion) per year!

Four years ago we had little national debt but after the crash were spending about €400,000,000 per week more than we were taking in tax.

We have borrowed to cover this for the past 4 years and added about €80 billion (and rising) to that debt pile to bail out the banks.

And you think we are going to pay all this back? With the economy stagnant; shrinking or rising in a band of -1 to +1%?

Just think of it this way: if we got, say, 2 billion from privatizing the ESB it would cover about two weeks interests repayments on the current debt. By this time two years it wouldn't cover even one week's interest repayments/debt increase.

The tipping point has been passed. They just haven't admitted that yet. :mad:

dvpower

Wild Bill wrote: »

Current national debt is €122 billion

[...]
That's €500,000,000 per week; a cool billion per fortnight or €26,000,000,000 (26 billion) per year!

That's an interest rate of 21% :eek:
Somethiingone isn't adding up.

Is our national debt on a store card?

Wild Bill

dvpower wrote: »

That's an interest rate of 21% :eek:
Somethiingone isn't adding up.

Is our national debt on a store card?

Remember, it's not just interest, (apologies, my post above suggested it was) we are also still borrowing billions to to fund the bank "bailout" scam and to cover a primary deficit and replacing old debt falling due with new debt at higher interest rates.

The figures above are correct.

Read them and weep :cool:

Transpirant

jacko1 wrote: »

this is highly embarrassing for a party that wants us to trust them with money

http://www.labour.ie/press/listing/13364074033510969.html

On the same leaflet they claim the figure to be €160million on ome page and €500million on another!

I think the OP doesn't fully understand the policy:

1) repudiate the debt
2) allow the banks to fail

The result would cleanse the situation, albeit with a small amount of pain

Frankly, it is a lot more instructive to read from intellligent, well informed readers like yourself than just calling each other names, depending on one's poitical point of view.

Wild Bill

Transpirant wrote: »

I think the OP doesn't fully understand the policy:

Who the heck is the "OP"?

The guy who started the thread?

Wild Bill

Transpirant wrote: »

The result would cleanse the situation, albeit with a small amount of pain

I agree with the solution - it's what must happen, what will happen; but I think, like SF, you are understating the pain.

It will be massive - regardless of WHAT we do.Way too late for soft options.

The point of facing up to reality is that we'll do much less damage in the medium to long term than the fantasy policy of the Establishment.