Overround

Formation

In theory a bookmaker charges an overround (fee) for accepting a bet.

They adjust the odds on a football match to reflect the amount of money wagered on each of the 3 outcomes in the win-draw-win market and regardless of the outcome make a profit.

In reality I don't think this happens in 90%+ of matches.

Some sites keep stats of bets placed by clicking on a link like they do at oddschecker and you regularly see 80% of money wagered on a team at odds of 4/6.

If they ran a true book and made their profit from the overround there would be no need to limit winning bettors or hear how Kauto Star winning the gold cup cost the bookies £200,000.

Seeing as the theory of the 'bookmaker'
does not hold true and there are many instances of events being priced up wrong why do the vast majority of punters lose in the long run?

I would pick out 2 main reasons but I would like to hear opinions from other people.

1. Betting too large a portion of their bankroll. People want to make their fortune/pay for a holiday/car, ect within a month and try to grow their bankroll 10x+ in a month when that would be an excellent feat to do in a year with proper bankroll strategy.

2. Accumulators. People think they only have a small amount of money to wager and want a big score, you may as well buy a few scratchcards! Any profitable bets you wager will be brought down by unprofitable bets and in the vast majority of cases the accumulator overall will be -EV and the bookie will take your money sooner or later. Its a marathon not a sprint, look at compounding interert and imagine with a good strategy the effect 30 periods per year can have on small bankrolls.

What are your experiences?

Formation

No opinions?

DB74

Is the 80% on Oddschecker not 80% of the number of bets as opposed to 80% of the amount of money staked.

People lose money because they bet on stuff they don't know anything about. They see an odds-on shot and think "here's an easy way to make a quick buck". You only have to read the football bets section of this site to see that. How many people on there can hold their hands up and say that they know their stuff when it comes to the Brazilian 2nd division, for example. But those matches will still get punted because they are there to be punted.

The other reason people lose money is because they bet in markets that the bookies are falling over themselves to offer money-back specials on. You should have a look at the threads on facebook where Paddy Power wants suggestions as to which enhanced price people want. Suggestions like "XYZ to score in both halves" or "ABC to score a hat-trick". I find it incredible that people bet in these markets on a regular basis.

I agree with accumulators as well. They are a betting bank killer. Again another market where bookies offer MBS like money back if one loser in a four-fold or higher. Bookies must love seeing these bets.