Monday 7th May

rossom

I'll get write ups done later but I'm afraid the price of these will go very quickly. Both represent big bets for me, with Terdaad a very big bet at the price.

4.50 Kempton Terdaad 11/4
5.50 Kempton Jedward 9/2

mailburner

good luck with them
had to follow you

Pinesky

I thought Jedward ran well LTO

rossom

4.50 Kempton

Terdaad 11/4 advised (5/2 now)

Really fancy Saeed Bin Suroor's very lightly raced 4 year old who has obviously had his problems but I think he is potentially much better than his mark of 90 and he could well be up to Pattern Class. He made a pretty disappointing debut as a 2 year old when sent off 2/1 joint favourite but he was well beaten 10th but I'm ignoring this run as he's shown he's a much better animal since. On his 2nd start, he was sent off a 4/9 favourite but was upset by Aciano over C+D back in September 2010 when he went down by 0.5L, with the front two drawing 7L clear. On his 3rd start in October 2010 he broke his maiden tag at the 3rd attempt over 7f at the track and the application of cheekpieces has made a huge difference to Terdaad as he was given an extremely confident ride by Frankie as he powered clear to score under hands and heels riding by 1.5L. The form of that race is strong with the 2nd Kuala Limper now a 91 rated animal and it was a very stylish performance by the then 2 year old.

Obviously due to problems, Terdaad was off the track for 10 months before making his sole start as a 3 year old in August last year as he went on to score on his turf and handicap debut at Salisbury off a mark of 81. Again in the hands of todays jockey Frankie Dettori, Terdaad was dropped about 3L off the back of the main field before hitting the front with about 1f to go. I've watched and re-watched this race over and over again and I strongly feel that Frankie had a lot of horse left under him and he may well have idled out in front but it seems to me that Dettori was always holding his rivals as he went to go on and score by a neck. Again, the form of that race is very strong with the 2nd winning impressively off a 3lb higher mark on his next start and he is now 10lb higher rated than that day and the 3rd Icebuster has won by 6L off a 2lb higher mark and is now rated 12lb higher than that day and in context I think the 9lb rise was rather fair.

Now a 4 year old, Terdaad makes his seasonal reappearance on the back of 9 month absence which is absolutely no concern to me given he overcame a similar absence on his last start. Moreover, Bin Suroor readied Farhh from a similar break the other day who absolutely romped home in a big handicap so again which adds strength to my arguments. Now off a mark of 90, I personally feel he is still well handicapped and I think there is still a lot of improvement left to come from this horse. Tomorrow obviously represents his toughest task but he clearly goes very well at the track. Cheekpieces are retained, and he has a perfect 2-2 record when these aids have been utilised. Although the draw in stall 10 isn't ideal, he'll more than likely be dropped in midfield or towards the back and thus I amn't overly concerned. This 14 runner Class 3 event looks a competitive event on paper, but I strongly believe that Terdaad will be a cut above his competition and have had a big bet in the hope he can win this impressively before going on to bigger and better things.

rossom

5.50 Kempton

Jedward 9/2 advised (7/2 now)

Really fancy Richard Fahey's newly acquired 5 year old who I think is very well handicapped off a mark of 79 and with only 8 races today in her career, although it will have to be a career best effort. This awfully named mare started her career out with Charles O'Brien and at the second time of asking she got off the mark impressively over 5f at Navan when scoring by 2.5L and it was a likeable effort. That was her last start as a 2 year old as she took 6 month break and it was clear she needed her reappearance run on her handicap debut off a mark of 73. 6 weeks later, Jedward put in what has turned out to be a fantastic effort as she went down as a 0.5L 3rd at The Curragh in May last year. I don't think I've seen the form of a race work out any stronger to be honest! The winner Roicead has won off 24lb higher, and has placed in a Group 3 and is now a 106 rated animal. The 2nd Murura has won off an 11lb higher mark and is now 22lb higher rated and the 4th Maarek today won off a 25lb higher mark today, with all 3 looking up to pattern class. Although its obvious those 3 have hugely improving profiles and Jedward did not finish around these 3 by any fluke!

After this effort which has turned out very well, she was down the field at The Curragh off a mark of 76 and I think she just disappointed that day. On her 2nd last start for Charles O'Brien, Jedward ran a very good race off an effective mark of 79 as she was 3lb out of the handicap to finish a 5.75L beaten 4th. The first and 2nd that day were Maarek and Murura which demonstrates off much higher marks than when Jedward split the pair and I have to emphasise you can't take the form of that race too literally. I remember looking at Betfair that day I was astonished to see that at one point Jedward had 15k of the 31k staked in the entire 25 runner field and it was very clear she was expected to go extremely well. However, the front two home are simply better animals with Maarek twice since from 3 subsequent starts which boosts that form. On her final start for Charles O'Brien, and back off her handicap mark of 76, Jedward was probably given slightly too much to do as she finished a half length beaten 2nd at Navan in October with the front two drawing clear of the remainder over the 5f trip. The form of that race looks strong with the winner My Girl Anna subsequently performing very well off a 5lb higher mark without winning and given that she would have definitely won if a furlong longer it was still a very good effort.

In the interim period, Jedward was purchased by Dr Marwan Koukash and she made her debut for Richard Fahey last month at Ripon off a mark of 78. After travelling into the race extremely well, better than I have ever seen her in fact, she was blocked off slightly before she didn't really pick up in the final furlong as it looked she would as she finished a 1.75L beaten 3rd. However, she may well have needed the run as she was well beaten on debut and as well after the only time she has had a break. Regardless, she is definitely going to be much sharper for that reappearance effort. Tomorrow represents her AW debut at Kempton and I'm very confident of her chances. I definitely think she's well handicapped off her mark of 79 and Richard Fahey should definitely be able to improve this mare who has considerable growth for improvement. Franny Norton takes the ride and I think with Fair Value in the race she'll get a strong pace that will suit her a lot. I thought 9/2 represented exceptional value in this 6 runner field and at 7/2 I still definitely think she is worth a bet. With Fahey in very good form at the moment, if taking to the AW surface I am very confident Jedward will be extremely difficult to beat tomorrow and I have had a big bet as a result.

I'll be very surprised if St N' abbey wins later today, looks a banker on the ratings but trip, ground and seasonal reappearance are all concerns, the opposition isn't great admittedly though.

UrbanSea

10 furlongs would be a real worry for me. Though this isn't his seasonal reappearance

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

..... Though this isn't his seasonal reappearance

Oops

mailburner

UrbanSea wrote: »

10 furlongs would be a real worry for me.

only a two horse race but i think sna might be worth taking on with sharestan who will relish the step up to 10f

mailburner

wouldnt it be great to have inside info from ballydoyle...

Doubt many insiders saw that coming, combination of a trip a tad too short and a less than perfect ride led to that, considering the trip was know in advance the crux of it was a poor ride probably, no offence to the lad, of course he may well have been under instructions to hold off pushing the button until as late as he did, hard to pick up those lengths in that easy ground too.