Sunday 6th May

rossom

3.50 Newmarket

Maarek 11/1

I'm a big fan of this fella and think he could run a huge race tomorrow. David Peter Nagle's 5 year old was a rapid improver last season and has continued that progression this year. Maarek first came to my attention in September last year when he landed a 25 runner event at The Curragh in fine style to scoot home by a length. That day he beat a horse call Murura that I really, really rate and he subsequently went straight into my notebook. That day, the front two drew well clear on the heavy ground and it really was a very good performance. He was raised 8lb for that effort which emphasised the authority he won with that day. After this race, Maarek took a 6 month break and ran a very good race to finish a very narrowly beaten 2nd again at The Curragh. Under Seamie Heffernan, Maarek probably hit the front a little too soon and was swallowed up in the final strides by Criosultan to go down by about a neck. However, he lost absolutely nothing in defeat in my eyes and Criosultan has franked that form by running a stormer behind the excellent Excelebration, although that rival won in a canter.

After that narrow defeat, I was very surprised that the handicapper left his mark of 97 the same and Maarek proved he was still a very much improving animal by winning at Naas on his last start. I put him up as a very confident selection that day back in the hands of Wayne Lordon, who had commitments to retained trainer David Wachman in Maarek's 2nd last race, and gave this 5 year old a fine ride to win by 0.5L. This gelding often takes a little bit of time to get going and I thought Lordon may have hit the front a little too soon but Maarek was always holding them as he scored in impressive fashion under a welter burden of 10 stone. The form of that race took a major boost the other day with the second Gordon Lord Byron scoring impressively at Tipperary off a 2lb higher mark. Moreover, the 3rd that day My Girl Anna ran a very good 3rd in the same race off a 2lb higher mark to solidify Maarek's form. Moreover, his trainer said after the race that he thought it was probably a little on the dry side for his liking so I think you can upgrade this success.

Tomorrow, Maarek makes the journey across the Irish Sea with a 5lb penalty and he has to contend with a mark of 102 and a racing weight of 9-8 in this very competitive handicap. Trainer David Peter Nagle is a very shrewd operator having only sent 3 to England in his career and although he's yet to taste victory on British soil his 2 of his horses have finished 2nd whilst the other was Maarek who ran a cracker in the Ayr Silver Cup to finish a narrowly beaten 4th under what I thought wasn't the best of rides from Andrew Elliot that day. Joseph O'Brien takes the ride tomorrow and he looks a very encouraging jockey booking. The current going is described as good to soft but Aidan O'Brien said yesterday that it was proper soft ground when he walked the track this morning and the softer it is the more it will suit Maarek. Although he faces a huge field of 27, Maarek seems to thrive in these massive runner handicaps with 3 wins of 20+ runners to his name to date which is a huge positive. I'm happy with the draw in stall 24 given how todays races went and it should allow him to be dropped in the midfield. Although Joseph is going to have to be at his best to judge the timing of this ride, he demonstrated on Camelot how good a jockey he is and I amn't overly concerned. 11/1 represents a big price to me given his proven ability to act in field such as this and if everything falls right I'm confident he can improve again to land this valuable handicap.

rossom

5.35 Newmarket

Good of Luck 10/1

Really fancy Mick Channon's 3 year old makes who his handicap debut off what I think is a very lenient mark of 82 tomorrow and I'll be utterly shocked if this represents the ceiling of his ability. However, he is up against a bunch of other unexposed types so its definitely possible he could run into a very good sort here. Unraced as a 2 year old, this colt made his debut over 10f at Lingfield in a maiden back in February in very impressive fashion as he landed the contest by 3.75L. I remember prior to the race starting Mick Channon Jnr. saying that this fella was a bit of a big baby and wasn't fully wound up. Those comments seemed reflective in the betting as he drifted out from 10/3 to go off a 9/2 shot but he showed a blend of a very likeable attitude and a touch of class to score going away. The form of that race looks fine with the 3rd Scatter Dice winning twice subsequently but Good of Luck certainly looks a cut above the rest.

His opening handicap mark of 82 looks extremely workable, especially given the comments that he wasn't fully wound up and he would come on for the run. He makes his turf debut tomorrow and its a complete unknown as to how he will act on the ground and how he'll take to the surface. However, I certainly think he looks to have been let in off a rather lenient mark and in cases like this you've just got to go with your gut. Moreover, this son of Authorized has entries in both The Derby and King Edward VII Stakes which certainly indicates to me he's well thought of at home. Martin Harley takes the ride tomorrow for Channon who has his horses in pretty decent order at the moment. With BetVictor as short as 6/1, I think the 10/1 offered by Ladbrokes is a stand out price and completely negates the unknowns about his ability to act on the ground. He should be a much improved animal for his debut run and off a mark of 82 I think he could potentially rout his rivals tomorrow and I've had a decent sized bet in the hope that he does.

Nulty

No offence but the Maarek write up is the first of yours I've read because the race was annoying me. You make a good case for him and his trainer especially. He caught my eye on the surface but didn't dig through his form and I'm encouraged by your enthusiasm. The worry is the weight and his mark. He'll have to be really good, like a Group horse, to win this with that rating.

When you mention the form behind Excelebration for Croisultan, his mark was unchanged because he beat a 94 horse by less than a length that day. The form looks good with Excelebration but the rest of the field finished cery close and they're 10lbs lower than Croisultan.

That Silver Cup had a few reapposing in Mirza, Cheveton, Bertiewhittle and others. He is worse off with all of them by 9 to 15lbs except Mirza who he's only 4lbs worse off with. Cheveton should beat him again being 9lbs better off having beaten him nearly two lengths.

I don't mean for this to sound like an inquisition but the numbers don't add up.

BlueBaron

Horse has improved significantly, owners really like him today, win today and step up to listed class next race is what i'm told

rossom

Nulty wrote: »

No offence but the Maarek write up is the first of yours I've read because the race was annoying me. You make a good case for him and his trainer especially. He caught my eye on the surface but didn't dig through his form and I'm encouraged by your enthusiasm. The worry is the weight and his mark. He'll have to be really good, like a Group horse, to win this with that rating.

When you mention the form behind Excelebration for Croisultan, his mark was unchanged because he beat a 94 horse by less than a length that day. The form looks good with Excelebration but the rest of the field finished cery close and they're 10lbs lower than Croisultan.

That Silver Cup had a few reapposing in Mirza, Cheveton, Bertiewhittle and others. He is worse off with all of them by 9 to 15lbs except Mirza who he's only 4lbs worse off with. Cheveton should beat him again being 9lbs better off having beaten him nearly two lengths.

I don't mean for this to sound like an inquisition but the numbers don't add up.

I get your points about most things. In relation to Croisultan's run behind Excelebration, its more of an emphasis that of his well being than anything else and that it wasn't a flash in the ban considering his run immediately after his victory was a disappointment.

In relation to the re-opposing Silver Cup horses, I completely see your point and 9 times out of 10 I would be selecting a horse with the profile of Cheveton as he represents much more value technically on the basis of their Ayr run - and it is something I do frequently. However, I think Maarek is a far superior horse than he was at Ayr.

Once again I agree that for most horses the numbers wouldn't be adding up. Occasionally there comes a long a few horses for me that I intensely follow as I believe their potential ability is far greater than there handicap mark. Maarek is one for me. Watching all of his races various times, I certainly think he is up to pattern class and considering he powered clear with 10 stone under his back LTO I can't see him being very far away at all.

NaiveMelodies

Potomac(25/1) in the 4.40 at Gowran interests me.
Seemingly stables 2nd string in the race, horse has been off 2 years, formerly of the Gosden yard.
2 poor efforts in Wolverhampton in his 3 race career to date, but the 2nd run, a 6 length maiden win in Southwell(track running standard-slow that day), interests me. The 2nd horse in that race, Samarkand, and a couple more are now rated in the mid 80s.
On a mark of 77 today, which I think is generous. Potomac's breeding suggests he'll like the soft ground. No issues with the trip, could be wrong, but theres not too much draw bias at Gowran(he's drawn 12)??
The gamble is whether or not the stable have him readied for today, I think. 25/1 seems more than generous on that basis alone. A friend will be at gowran today so I've asked him to let me know if hears anything, and have a look in the paddock.

Andrew Oliver's other runner in the race, Bankroll is in good form but I feel the handicapper has probably caught up at this stage.

ft9

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Did JP buy The Westerner Boy? Does Mags Mullins still train it?

ft9 wrote: »

Yes, so I am told. Unsure whats happening with trainer.

He's a very good horse.

The Westener Boy makes his debut over hurdles today in JP's colours. Odds on but one to watch for the future I think, looks to be a very classy animal. Colm Murphy now trains.

UrbanSea

Heading to the races today should be good.

I'll be backing Sean Airgead in the second probably, as well as Brady's horse in the second last I think it is

Nulty

I liked the way New Youmzain stayed on in that race at Salisbury. It's great that there's a new Youmzain

mailburner

great pick rossom

only had a little ew on it but i also did an ew double with your
other one

Nulty

Congrats Rossom! The horse is definitely better than last year. Great performance and great tipping

MyStubbleItches

Pints and onion rings paid for. Thank you.

ft9

Some man Rossom.

rossom

rossom wrote: »

3.50 Newmarket

Maarek 11/1

I'm a big fan of this fella and think he could run a huge race tomorrow. David Peter Nagle's 5 year old was a rapid improver last season and has continued that progression this year. Maarek first came to my attention in September last year when he landed a 25 runner event at The Curragh in fine style to scoot home by a length. That day he beat a horse call Murura that I really, really rate and he subsequently went straight into my notebook. That day, the front two drew well clear on the heavy ground and it really was a very good performance. He was raised 8lb for that effort which emphasised the authority he won with that day. After this race, Maarek took a 6 month break and ran a very good race to finish a very narrowly beaten 2nd again at The Curragh. Under Seamie Heffernan, Maarek probably hit the front a little too soon and was swallowed up in the final strides by Criosultan to go down by about a neck. However, he lost absolutely nothing in defeat in my eyes and Criosultan has franked that form by running a stormer behind the excellent Excelebration, although that rival won in a canter.

After that narrow defeat, I was very surprised that the handicapper left his mark of 97 the same and Maarek proved he was still a very much improving animal by winning at Naas on his last start. I put him up as a very confident selection that day back in the hands of Wayne Lordon, who had commitments to retained trainer David Wachman in Maarek's 2nd last race, and gave this 5 year old a fine ride to win by 0.5L. This gelding often takes a little bit of time to get going and I thought Lordon may have hit the front a little too soon but Maarek was always holding them as he scored in impressive fashion under a welter burden of 10 stone. The form of that race took a major boost the other day with the second Gordon Lord Byron scoring impressively at Tipperary off a 2lb higher mark. Moreover, the 3rd that day My Girl Anna ran a very good 3rd in the same race off a 2lb higher mark to solidify Maarek's form. Moreover, his trainer said after the race that he thought it was probably a little on the dry side for his liking so I think you can upgrade this success.

Tomorrow, Maarek makes the journey across the Irish Sea with a 5lb penalty and he has to contend with a mark of 102 and a racing weight of 9-8 in this very competitive handicap. Trainer David Peter Nagle is a very shrewd operator having only sent 3 to England in his career and although he's yet to taste victory on British soil his 2 of his horses have finished 2nd whilst the other was Maarek who ran a cracker in the Ayr Silver Cup to finish a narrowly beaten 4th under what I thought wasn't the best of rides from Andrew Elliot that day. Joseph O'Brien takes the ride tomorrow and he looks a very encouraging jockey booking. The current going is described as good to soft but Aidan O'Brien said yesterday that it was proper soft ground when he walked the track this morning and the softer it is the more it will suit Maarek. Although he faces a huge field of 27, Maarek seems to thrive in these massive runner handicaps with 3 wins of 20+ runners to his name to date which is a huge positive. I'm happy with the draw in stall 24 given how todays races went and it should allow him to be dropped in the midfield. Although Joseph is going to have to be at his best to judge the timing of this ride, he demonstrated on Camelot how good a jockey he is and I amn't overly concerned. 11/1 represents a big price to me given his proven ability to act in field such as this and if everything falls right I'm confident he can improve again to land this valuable handicap.

Cracking ride by Joseph and stunning performance under 9-8 to win that by Maarek

Pinesky

Congrats once again Rossom I had a nice ew didn't get to see it because of the delay with the Guineas start Channel 4 Racing ran out of time . Interesting that a scheduled repeat of the Simpson's took precedence , nice one from the proclaimed home of terrestrial tv racing

TheMilkyPirate

You should start a log rossom, Great picking again!

rossom

Cheers lads

baraca wrote: »

You should start a log rossom, Great picking again!

I've been meaning to get a blog up and running for a while now but in the middle of a Masters so its been slow happening!

howlingcat

Had a 25/1 winner today, doesnt always work out this way but only put a tenner on it, happy out .
Would it be possible to post my selection of the day here or is there another thread for this , many thanks


3:15 Newmarket

Homecoming Queen @25/1

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

I liked the way New Youmzain stayed on in that race at Salisbury. It's great that there's a new Youmzain

FUUUUU!

Didn't know he was running until I heard his name in the commentary! :rolleyes:

Excellent performance from him. Pure determination when the second horse came to challenge