Saturday 5th May

rossom

4.20 Newmarket

Al Khan 10/1 NAP

Very confident Peter Chapple-Hyam's 3 year old can go extremely close today on his handicap debut and think he's extremely overpriced. Al Khan made his a successful debut in a maiden last July at Doncaster in impressive fashion and he immediately went into my notebook as one to follow. Over the 6f trip, Al Khan travelled into the race pretty nicely before asserting under the urgings of Jimmy Fortune to score going away by 2.25L. Although the 2nd, 3rd and 5th all won on their next starts, the form isn't fantastic but Al Khan was much better than his rivals and I am not too concerned. For his 2nd start, Al Khan was stepped into Group 3 company when upped to 7f at York where he performed admirably to finish 5th. He travelled into the race powerfully and with about 1.5f left he looked to hold every chance before he weakened and was eased slightly by Fortune when it was clear that a chance of a place was lost. However, he didn't lose much in defeat in my eyes as the front 4 all rated in the 100s.

On his last start, Al Khan ran in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September and in hindsight it was a race full of Group 1 standard horses. The 4 rivals he faced that day were 2000 Guineas hopefuls Trumpet Major and Red Duke as well as Entifaadha and Daddy Long Legs, the former a real class animal who will run in the Kentucky Derby later tonight. In the small field, Al Khan again travelled into the race really nicely and came with what looked a serious challenge and he probably just about hit the front with about 1.5f to go before he was swallowed by his classy rivals before being eased by Frankie Dettori and allowed to come home in his own time. His forays into Group company were probably slightly out of his depth but his entrance into a Class 2 handicap off a mark of 93 looks a much, much easier task.

Al Khan makes his seasonal reappearance and debut as a 3 year old today and the break since September should pose no concern considering he was successful on debut. Although there's always a concern that 2 year olds don't train on, its something you've just got to hope has happened and not really concern yourself with. I'm very happy he's dropped back to 6f for today's race as he may not have gotten home in his Group races over 7f as he looked a real player both times after about 5f. William Buick takes the ride today and he seems a very solid jockey booking. His debut win on good to firm but I don't envisage too many problems with the ground at the moment either. He's clearly a well thought of animal to be stepped into Group company for his 2nd and 3rd starts and his opening mark of 93 looks pretty lenient if I am honest and I'll be pretty surprised if he isn't good enough to exploit this mark at some stage in his career. Its a big race with 20 rivals but he successfully navigated a field of 15 on debut so its not much of a concern to me. The draw in stall 7 should be ok but we'll find out fairly early whether or not that is the case but at 10/1 with 4 places paid I'm very confident he'll at least make the frame if getting a clear passage.

rossom

4 more for me. I'll try get some write ups done at some stage

2.00 Newmarket Memory Cloth 13/2
3.20 Thirsk Mon Brav 11/1
4.30 Thirsk Hot Rod Mamma 33/1 (small bet)
6.05 Thirsk Pelmanism 12/1

UrbanSea

Allejandro is a nice each way price in that race at 25/1.


Look at the top weight. Rating of 99 after a maiden win is very very harsh.

I also like Rewarded in the last at 5/1

Also like Anya in the 4.40 Goodwood

UrbanSea

My bet of the day: Tristram Shandy in the bumper at Limerick at 5/1

longshotvalue

14:00 Newmarket, Makfi Suffolk Stakes

Askaud ran an eye-catching race on the Lincoln when 6th of 2 lbs higher than today. She looked there as if a step up in trip would suit and is an eye watering 8 lbs better off with Fury who is 8 times her price. She has acted well on softer ground last year, and although she was poor in her last run on very heavy going at Epson, that can be excused. 40/1 is most certainly overpriced and she seems sure to be more like a 20/1shot.


1pt EW 40/1 Stan James Sporting Bet


3:45 Newmarket Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes

Hamish McGonagall is one of the most consistent sprinters in training, and the highest rated horse in this race. He has in the past improved for his first run and has acted on softer ground on a good few occasions. Although the Favourite Mayson looks to be a potential improver he still has a bit to do to come up to this mark and I think the prices are wrong here. The selection is available at 9.2 on Betfair and although it’s a tough race he’s the favourite in my book.


2 pts win 9.2 Betfair.

3:30 Goodwood Betfred Mobile Sports Handicap


Very Good Day has been a selection of mine a couple of times last year without success, but in this race today off his nice lower mark of 85, I think he stands a great chance of getting involved. He ran a very good race in what turned out to be a very good stayers race at Ascot last year, and I think the step back in trip to 1m 6f today will suit him better. That race was on softer ground and today’s conditions should suit him. To me it looks a very open race and he seems to have as good a chance as any of the lower priced horses in front of him in the betting. 12.0 on Betfair looks a bit of value.


1pt win 12.0 Betfair

3:20 Thirsk Follow totepool On Facebook And Twitter Handicap

Mon Brav has looked to me on a few occasions that the step up in trip might just suit him. He is down to a very decent looking mark of 83 and has run well on seasonal debut a few times. He is sure to act on the softer ground and has a record of 2 from 2 at the course. My gut feeling is that hell be supported later on today and the 15.5 available on Betfair is going to look good value neared the race.


1pt win 15.5 Betfair

Kentucky Derby Daddy Long Legs


Obviously I know nothing about American racing, but Daddy Long Legs was extremely impressive in winning the UAE Derby last month and I think he is being well underestimated here. He is a game tough animal and that kind of resolution can pay dividends in this notably tough race. He was very poor at the course last year in the Breeders Cup and that is probably the reason for his big price, but if he can reproduce that last run here hell have a decent chance at the big price.

1pt Win 25/1 Bet365

4:30 Thirsk Hunt Cup Handicap


Kingscroft is a consistent horse who has plenty of wins behind him. He looked to be getting back to for last time here in a 7f contest and given that he gets 8 no problem and 87 should be a workable mark for him I think the 25/1 available is too big to ignore. He has won of 88 and has won on softer going.


1pt EW 25/1

MoscowFlyer

1.45 Limerick - Jimjim Mac Cool

This is a horse that has been thrown around this morning. Worth a few quid E/W

UrbanSea

@Aidan: The reason Daddy Long Legs is so big is because of the draw and not his run in the BC. He's been drawn one, there's been two winners from that in the last 50 odd years

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

@Aidan: The reason Daddy Long Legs is so big is because of the draw and not his run in the BC. He's been drawn one, there's been two winners from that in the last 50 odd years

They call it the coffin or something don't they?

UrbanSea

Something like that alright

rossom

‎5.15 Goodwood

Captain Cardington 25/1

I think Mick Channon's 3 year old looks very overpriced. He was last seen at Nottingham about a month ago where he ran a decent race before folding in the latter stages to finish about a 5L beaten 5th. He ran in his typical fashion of getting bumped from a fair way out and with about 1f left he looked a real player before finishers swamped right past him. It was on ok effort but it wasn't fantastic. He races today off a mark of 65, 1lb lower than his last effort, and he is only 1lb above his last winning mark which was 3 starts ago at Lingfield over 10f, with the 2nd winning by 4L on his next start so there is a lot to like about that effort. In relation to his turf form, I think he has shown some good efforts which make him look pretty well handicapped. On his 2nd career start back in June of last year, Captain Cardington ran out an impressive winner of a maiden at Epsom. The form of that race looks strong , with the 2nd performing admirably off a mark of 70 subsequently and the 3rd winning twice in the interim period, including off a mark of 78.

After this Captain Cardington was stepped into Class 2 company for his handicap debut off a mark of 75 at this track where he ran a very credible 3.25L beaten 7th in a race with very strong form. After being readily outpaced, he met a lot of traffic in running before staying on over the 7f trip and if reproducing that effort today he should take all the beating.This run at Goodwood, coupled with his maiden success at Epsom, demonstrates Captain Cardington's liking for undulating tracks and I think he will relish returning to Goodwood. Today's contest is a Class 5 event and now being 10lb lower than his good handicap debut over what was probably on the sharp side I think he appears very well handicapped. Trainer Mick Channon has his string in pretty good order at the moment and with the ground not looking to much of an issue I certainly think he is weighted to run a very big race.