Ireland for Sale, SOLD

ouncer

The upcoming referendum brings to a head current thinking on the benefits of Europe. The YES vote will explain that a negative response will impact future funding from Europe and many will find it hard to disagree with that. But the yes vote will not bring financial stability either. In fact we will sink deeper into debt and continue to sell of state assets and residential/commercial properties to international investors at a steal to try and balance the books. We can already see that this practice is not balancing the books but is instead depleting the country of any assets it has. The Taoiseach stood up in the Dail and explained that we have a €16 billion annual deficit and that have to put our own house in order. This is correct and any manager of a large company would tell you that the way to do this is deep and painful cuts internally within the company. That manager would not advise selling off the core assets of the company as this would be business suicide. So how can we work these cuts. All high earners become modest earners, all modest earners become low earners. Our banks are nationalized into one entity. Debt forgiveness is struck on an individual basis but with set parameters so those who have lost huge chunks of earnings can maintain not their lifestyle but a basic standard of living in the accommodation they currently reside in (as will be the case for low earners). Vacant buildings will be shared out to those in need but those people must contribute back to the community within another set of defined parameters. Now suddenly €16 billion is no longer impossible. We put our own house in order by becoming self sufficient. We allow people to cut turf, to fish our waters and to sow the crops that our people need. This ludicrous path being taken by our Government can only be considered as treason and should be treated with the contempt it deserves.

On the other hand the NO vote will point out that by voting in the positive we are only consigning ourselves to further austerity. Are they insane? We are spending €16 billion more than we take in each year. Of course we are going to be dealing with austerity whether we vote YES or NO. The difference is that if we vote NO we take control of our own destiny. Yes, we will have to implement massive cuts, yes it will be difficult but as the Taoiseach put it ‘we have dealt with adversity before and when it comes to the crunch that people will help’. However his untruth was when he stated that ‘when people are told the truth of the scale of the problem they will want to help’. The problem here is that people are not aware what is going on. They see licences for gas fields being sold off the coast of Ireland and shortly thereafter a big gas find is struck by an international company. They see simple cases where a tender for book supply to Fingal public libraries is handed to UK booksellers rather than Irish booksellers. They see Ireland being raped and this is the truth they see.

Today you will find many small businesses really struggling and people willingly taking pay-cuts just to keep the business afloat and have a job to go to and to have a sense of dignity. Now it is time we stood with dignity as a nation rather than mixing with European loan sharks. Yes the road will be incredibly difficult but it is better to have dignity than nothing which is where this is ultimately leading. If you look at Iceland, they took the unpopular steps needed, and already it is evident the benefit. The end game being played by our politicians is based on global economic recovery. With global economic recovery we will have job creation and in the long run be able to balance our budgets by increased tax takes. However this is simply not a realistic position and the longer this depression continues the more we fool ourselves that all will be fine. Also the longer this continues the more assets must be sold to fuel this delusion.

I feel that the reason we take our current path is to continue paying public servants exorbitant salaries. If we were to take a lead and slash public service salaries, tax large private salaries to the hilt, half social welfare payments and only allow tax incentives where individuals fund new successful Irish businesses then we can get this country back on the road to recovery. I do not suggest that we do not pay back what we owe but first we must put our ship in order. Current strategy places us in a dangerous limbo where we are forced to sell our assets to pay for our expensive pay structures. I do not accept that we simply take a couple of percent of people’s income each year and hope all will get better in the long run.

So the real choice is this. Vote Yes and watch our country slowly but surely be sold out from under our feet. Vote No and be assured that hard times are ahead. The reality is that hard times are ahead in any case so then the choice is whether you want to be the beggars of Europe or instead stand for something. Choose wisely!

Scofflaw

Minor point: the "European loan sharks" are lending to us at rates of 2.97% (EFSM) and 3.06% (EFSF). Along with the somewhat higher IMF (4.79%) and UK (4.83%) loans in the bailout fund, that's basically what's keeping everything together at the moment.

Market rates for equivalent loans are currently 6.3% or so - more than twice the rates the "European loan sharks" are giving us.

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/11/17/00058.asp

cordially,
Scofflaw

ouncer

Not a minor point. The rates are significantly better than what we would receive on the bond markets. But we still have a gun to our head on repayments when in truth we are in no condition to repay. And this is where the focus of my points lie. We must correct our budget imbalance now. We cannot wait until global economic recovery as by that time the ship will have sunk and Ireland will be another Argentina. Michael Noonan said that a budget would be more difficult if we voted NO but more importantly he did not say that a NO vote would be the end. The YES vote will suit the higher earners in society as it guarantees their pay structures (maybe at slightly reduced rates) into the future. The NO vote could potentially lead towards a more socialist Ireland where household incomes could potentially be capped by 100% tax rates above certain thresholds. I guess the question is whether we really give a damm about being owned by somebody else or about social equality. I have two kids in secondary school and I would hope that they would be proud to be Irish. Our government is taking a massive gamble on global economic recovery in a time where more and more countries are entering financial trouble. They are afraid to take the hard decisions because, after waiting so long in the wings for power, they do not wish to rock the boat.

Scofflaw

ouncer wrote: »

Not a minor point. The rates are significantly better than what we would receive on the bond markets. But we still have a gun to our head on repayments when in truth we are in no condition to repay.

We've managed to extend the term on repayments already, though. If we can't repay the official funding, there won't be any question of forcing us to do so, because doing that would undo the good of lending to us in the first place.

ouncer wrote: »

And this is where the focus of my points lie. We must correct our budget imbalance now. We cannot wait until global economic recovery as by that time the ship will have sunk and Ireland will be another Argentina.

But the budget imbalance is being corrected. It can't be corrected overnight without very unpleasant effects on the economy.

ouncer wrote: »

Michael Noonan said that a budget would be more difficult if we voted NO but more importantly he did not say that a NO vote would be the end. The YES vote will suit the higher earners in society as it guarantees their pay structures (maybe at slightly reduced rates) into the future. The NO vote could potentially lead towards a more socialist Ireland where household incomes could potentially be capped by 100% tax rates above certain thresholds.

I can't see this any more than I can see default as a result of a No vote. The ESM will be offering us good rates, based on the European fund rates so far, but the markets will lend to us as well, just at unpleasant rates.

ouncer wrote: »

I guess the question is whether we really give a damm about being owned by somebody else or about social equality. I have two kids in secondary school and I would hope that they would be proud to be Irish. Our government is taking a massive gamble on global economic recovery in a time where more and more countries are entering financial trouble. They are afraid to take the hard decisions because, after waiting so long in the wings for power, they do not wish to rock the boat.

There isn't really a choice other than gambling on a global economic recovery, though. We're a trading country, because our home market is too small to be self-sustaining.

Having said that, I agree that some hard choices are not being made, and that vested interests are being protected - but that's kind of my point. I can't see any electable Irish government choosing not to follow that path, because the special interests they're protecting are both part of the voting public and part of the body politic. This is a corporatist country, after all.

cordially,
Scofflaw

ouncer

Scofflaw wrote: »

Having said that, I agree that some hard choices are not being made, and that vested interests are being protected - but that's kind of my point. I can't see any electable Irish government choosing not to follow that path, because the special interests they're protecting are both part of the voting public and part of the body politic.

Nicely put and sums it up. No matter what road we take the majority lose.

ouncer

So after much soul searching as to what is the point of voting I'm going to vote NO anyway. Its in the best interests of Ireland and will likely directly impact my finances since I now depend on social welfare after losing my job a while back. Hard at work with the launch of businesstenders.ie close at hand. No point in sitting down and crying about losing a job

meglome

ouncer wrote: »

So after much soul searching as to what is the point of voting I'm going to vote NO anyway. Its in the best interests of Ireland and will likely directly impact my finances since I now depend on social welfare after losing my job a while back. Hard at work with the launch of businesstenders.ie close at hand. No point in sitting down and crying about losing a job

Sounded like you were voting no from the off. Maybe you can explain how "it's in the best interests of Ireland and will likely directly impact my finances".

ouncer

As I said in the opening post social welfare should be halfed and if my business is successful I also say that any large incomes should be taxed to the hilt. And yes I had always planned to vote no. I will encourage all my family and friends to do likewise. What scofflaw has done is given unbiased clarification which has been extremely educational and I am very thankful for his/her vast knowledge

meglome

ouncer wrote: »

As I said in the opening post social welfare should be halfed and if my business is successful I also say that any large incomes should be taxed to the hilt.

The problem here is two fold...
1. Social Welfare recipients put most of that money back into the economy so cutting it in half actually hurts the economy. Not saying it shouldn't be cut, just saying there are ramifications.
2. Taxing income over a certain level will just cause capital flight and more tax evasion.

ouncer wrote: »

And yes I had always planned to vote no. I will encourage all my family and friends to do likewise. What scofflaw has done is given unbiased clarification which has been extremely educational and I am very thankful for his/her vast knowledge

Unfortunately you're doing what I see many no voters doing, voting no without any real reason.

Godge

ouncer wrote: »

And yes I had always planned to vote no. I will encourage all my family and friends to do likewise. What scofflaw has done is given unbiased clarification which has been extremely educational and I am very thankful for his/her vast knowledge

This I do not understand. All of Scofflaw's clarifications lead me to the conclusion that the least bad option is to vote YES if only for the reasons in the post below. How you logically reach another conclusion baffles me unless you want an anarchic revolution and scenes like in Greece (which is why I believe some of the ULA and SF want a NO).

Then again, I was always inclined towards a yes.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Minor point: the "European loan sharks" are lending to us at rates of 2.97% (EFSM) and 3.06% (EFSF). Along with the somewhat higher IMF (4.79%) and UK (4.83%) loans in the bailout fund, that's basically what's keeping everything together at the moment.

Market rates for equivalent loans are currently 6.3% or so - more than twice the rates the "European loan sharks" are giving us.

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/11/17/00058.asp

cordially,
Scofflaw

ouncer

my point is that we can continue to borrow until ireland has finally sold all its assets and there is nothing left for our children other than a debt mountain. I am willing to suffer he pain now so my children have a future and can be proud to be Irish. In terms of political affiliation there ain't much to get excited out there about. As said all of them have vested interests so all I can vote on is what I believe is best for my country. As an individual every citizen has a right to vote as they may and I respect your views in this.

blowtorch

ouncer wrote: »

So after much soul searching as to what is the point of voting I'm going to vote NO anyway. Its in the best interests of Ireland and will likely directly impact my finances since I now depend on social welfare after losing my job a while back. Hard at work with the launch of businesstenders.ie close at hand. No point in sitting down and crying about losing a job

Nice plug Ouncer (businesstenders.ie)!. Similar to you, I lost my job 18 months. Luckily January this year got a regular 2 days a week. I set up a website too - a free directory for businesses in Wexford. Anything to try stop the local rot. And like you, I'm in the NO camp. If we have the comfort of a cheap interest trough to keep going back to, we'll do it. On the other hand, if we have to sort the thing ourselves, that's the better option in my opinion.

Scofflaw

ouncer wrote: »

my point is that we can continue to borrow until ireland has finally sold all its assets and there is nothing left for our children other than a debt mountain. I am willing to suffer he pain now so my children have a future and can be proud to be Irish. In terms of political affiliation there ain't much to get excited out there about. As said all of them have vested interests so all I can vote on is what I believe is best for my country. As an individual every citizen has a right to vote as they may and I respect your views in this.

My problem with that is that voting No will probably not prevent the government from borrowing. It will just make it more expensive to do so. Amazingly, that means both more austerity (because of higher interest payments) and continued borrowing. It would probably also produce a slightly worse effect on the economy, because more of what the government spends is leaving the country in interest payments rather than being spent into the Irish economy.

So while I appreciate the sentiment, I don't see a No vote as producing the outcome you want. That is, of course, only an opinion on my part.

cordially,
Scofflaw

ouncer

scofflaw, your a right pain :-). I figure if I said I was voting yes you could easily give me 10 reasons why I should vote no. Anyway I am a lot clearer on where we are at. We have a huge problem surfacing in 2014 with a 14 billion payment required. If we vote NO we will simply have to default on that payment and that will definitely hurt our credibility in international markets. I also understand that with any business you simply must have a line of credit so borrowing will come at a premium cost. However I still sit in the NO camp because I want this country corrected and I want the pain now. I want my kids to know that I did everything in my power to hold on to what is ours and not sell it to an international financial community. God be with the days when you had to invade a country to take it over. Now its just a keystroke on a computer.

Blowtorch., glad you liked my plug :-). In my last job I noticed that we were sourcing stuff from the UK that was available in Ireland. Hence the tenders platform that will hopefully allow Irish businesses to source from each other rather than from abroad. Who knows how things will pan out, you can only try :-)