Mini budget looming

lmimmfn

Just heard on the news on the radio that the growth expectation for this year is going to be revised down from 1.3%( or roundabouts ). That there will be a new figure by the end of the month and that it may result in a mini buget soon.

Is it just me or are the FG/Labour coalition one of the worst coalitions in the state at both PR and living in the real world?

Yes i understand something needs to be done if we dont meet our targets, however it was blatently obvious in the last budget that with all the tax increases/charges that the domestic economy would be destroyed and at the same time exports would be down due to the euro crisis( which lets not forget has been going on for around a year now at least )

First we have the household charge debacle followed by water charges, petrol/diesel going through the roof and now a potential looming mini budget, what do you guys think? im of the opinion that this will cause uproar because theres no appetite for sporadic tax increases/more service cuts when we knew from the last budget that the household charge/water rates were coming soon yet those charges started waking people up to where we are at and where we are going.

Also, do you think it will affect the referendum?

Delancey

You hit the nail on the head with the last word in your post - Referendum.

There will be no mention of a mini-budget ( bar denials ) until the referendum is out of the way . The Government will be afraid that folks will vote No as a form of protest vote.

Chucky the tree

If there is another budget I can't see it being announced in before the referendum, unless they really are bad at the PR game. Also, when a country is running a €16bn deficit I can't help but laugh at people who complain about tax increase and charges, what else is going to happen? Now while the Government haven't done enough in terms of cuts and that has been obvious to everyone they will eventually realise that it is what they need to do.

Godge

Is this just another thread based on rumour and conjecture?

The latest factual evidence we have on the 2012 situation is as follows:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=7205&CatID=5&StartDate=1+January+2012
"The end-Quarter 1 returns offer the first opportunity to take stock on progress towards meeting the fiscal targets set out in Budget 2012. Today’s figures, which build upon the strong finish to 2011, highlight the significant progress that has been made in restoring stability to the public finances. Stability is key to jobs and growth and today’s returns give a positive, real time assessment, on the continued progress in 2012 and highlight the robustness of Budget 2012 budgetary forecasts. These figures illustrate that we are on target to reduce our General Government deficit to 8.6% of GDP this year"


If someone is going to start a scaremongering thread like this, surely they should be expected to provide more evidence than that they heard something on the radio? Or has the standards here slipped even lower?

bbam

Godge wrote: »

Is this just another thread based on rumour and conjecture?

The latest factual evidence we have on the 2012 situation is as follows:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=7205&CatID=5&StartDate=1+January+2012
"The end-Quarter 1 returns offer the first opportunity to take stock on progress towards meeting the fiscal targets set out in Budget 2012. Today’s figures, which build upon the strong finish to 2011, highlight the significant progress that has been made in restoring stability to the public finances. Stability is key to jobs and growth and today’s returns give a positive, real time assessment, on the continued progress in 2012 and highlight the robustness of Budget 2012 budgetary forecasts. These figures illustrate that we are on target to reduce our General Government deficit to 8.6% of GDP this year"


If someone is going to start a scaremongering thread like this, surely they should be expected to provide more evidence than that they heard something on the radio? Or has the standards here slipped even lower?

http://www.newstalk.ie/2012/news/fears-for-possible-mini-budget-in-coming-weeks/

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/finance-minister-warns-of-weaker-growth-than-forecast-549006.html

In fairness OP said there MAY be a mini budget... And it does look like we're heading that way... How could OP have facts for something that may happen in a few weeks?? Or are we now consigned to talking about history because there are facts to back it up ??
Off you go now and put your head back in the sand if you want to ignore what's going on... :rolleyes:

lmimmfn

Godge wrote: »

Is this just another thread based on rumour and conjecture?

The latest factual evidence we have on the 2012 situation is as follows:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/viewdoc.asp?DocID=7205&CatID=5&StartDate=1+January+2012
"The end-Quarter 1 returns offer the first opportunity to take stock on progress towards meeting the fiscal targets set out in Budget 2012. Today’s figures, which build upon the strong finish to 2011, highlight the significant progress that has been made in restoring stability to the public finances. Stability is key to jobs and growth and today’s returns give a positive, real time assessment, on the continued progress in 2012 and highlight the robustness of Budget 2012 budgetary forecasts. These figures illustrate that we are on target to reduce our General Government deficit to 8.6% of GDP this year"


If someone is going to start a scaremongering thread like this, surely they should be expected to provide more evidence than that they heard something on the radio? Or has the standards here slipped even lower?

the first quarter results were completely skewed because of delayed tax receipts from large companies/multinationals which should have been submitted in q4 2011.

And no its not scaremongering, while i would actually like to agree with you that some 'news' story on the radio doesnt mean crap, the media are dictating whats important and not important here( again that pisses me off ).

Excluding all the media crap, the reality is that the savings from budget 2012 were decided by the troika and were based on the projected economic growth, the growth is well off so either its going to be a mini budget or a double blow budget at the end of the year, when it happens doesnt matter.

NakedNNettles

lmimmfn wrote: »

Is it just me or are the FG/Labour coalition one of the worst coalitions in the state at both PR and living in the real world?

The shortness of memories.

No they're not, as I recall the previous government FF/Greens/Ind were an absolute shambles at PR .........especially just before they all bailed out with their fat pensions.

As for living in the real world, don't get me started.

lmimmfn

NakedNNettles wrote: »

The shortness of memories.

No they're not, as I recall the previous government FF/Greens/Ind were an absolute shambles at PR .........especially just before they all bailed out with their fat pensions.

As for living in the real world, don't get me started.

lol, true, but they floated along nicely during the good times when people didnt care what they came up with.

golden lane

there will be a long time to pass before the the budget will be balanced.....

the taxe rises and cut backs are there for the future.....the country lived beyond it's means......

government spending did not match reality.....these are not cutbacks...they are where the spending should have always been.......

paddy0090

No I'don't see a mini budget coming. The referendums up in May and they'll be out the door on holidays after that. Well everyone but Kenny and Gilmore who could be up in front of the Beek Merkel.:D

Really can't see the point either. If they had a mini budget it would have to be relatively large and easiy to justify to avert the possibily of another PR disaster. Any adjustment less than 1bn to the current plan will be left until December. The govt. have a good enough track record with the troika to give them the wiggle room.

There's a whiff of sabotage in support for more severe cuts. If it makes us look more like Greece then we might get a restructering of our debt.

If the Euro collapses all bets off.

Cookie_Monster

There absolutly should be a mini budget, but I doubt there will be. Any sensible business does a mid year review of their budget, if not more frequently, I don't see why the state should be any different.

bbam

Regarding the comment on the Euro collapsing. Is this still a Real possibility, there was a lot of talk about it being imminent a few months ago but it didn't come to pass.
What is the current risk to it? Spain?

Dubit10

Won't matter either way. When the government lose the referendum the coalition will collapse as the euro goes into meltdown. We are up shi tcreek without a paddle i'm afraid.

Dubit10

bbam wrote: »

Regarding the comment on the Euro collapsing. Is this still a Real possibility, there was a lot of talk about it being imminent a few months ago but it didn't come to pass.
What is the current risk to it? Spain?

Spain,Greece,Ireland,Portugal,Italy i could go on. There is so much bad debt the euro can't survive. All they are doing is holding the line at present.

Dannyboy83

lmimmfn wrote: »

Yes i understand something needs to be done if we dont meet our targets, however it was blatently obvious in the last budget that with all the tax increases/charges that the domestic economy would be destroyed

Ronan Lyons had a great article about this after the last budget:
http://www.ronanlyons.com/2012/01/10/just-like-that-200000-jobs-and-the-government%E2%80%99s-magic-trick/


http://www.progressive-economy.ie/2012/01/end-of-year-exchequer-returns-2011-and.html
Well worth a read

battle_hardend

bbam wrote: »

Regarding the comment on the Euro collapsing. Is this still a Real possibility, there was a lot of talk about it being imminent a few months ago but it didn't come to pass.
What is the current risk to it? Spain?

the euro wont be allowed to crash for the simple reason that the usa and china would take too big of a hit , markets ( including currency markets ) are not near as free as we are led to believe , the euro could go to parity with the dollar although i doubt it , if germany gets its way and is allowed full control of each countrys budgetery policy , this will boost the strength of the euro , this is the price germany will charge for bailing ireland , spain , italy and who knows else out , its a huge political challenge of course

Joe 90

Cookie_Monster wrote: »

There absolutly should be a mini budget, but I doubt there will be. Any sensible business does a mid year review of their budget, if not more frequently, I don't see why the state should be any different.

Yes, but the business has to live in the real world. The state thinks that the taxpayer can pick up the tab indefinitely for all it's screw ups.

hmmm

lmimmfn wrote: »

Also, do you think it will affect the referendum?

Why would something that will only happen in your head affect a referendum? What do you mean the local economy is destroyed as a consequence of last years budget - the economy is pretty much the same as it was this time last year.

The coalition are making steady steps towards balancing out budget,I'm not sure what else people expect them to do. Austerity is not a choice we have.

ardmacha

There will be no mini-budget.

• Revenue is ahead of target
• while real growth is a little bit less, nominal growth is about the same, and that's largely what determines revenue.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Godge

ardmacha wrote: »

There will be no mini-budget.

• Revenue is ahead of target
• while real growth is a little bit less, nominal growth is about the same, and that's largely what determines revenue.

Nothing to see here, move along.

A rational post on Irish Economy, good to see.

Even if a mini-budget was needed (and I agree with you that it is not), there is too much political capital to be lost by having one - you can always stop a few capital projects or defer some spending to next year instead. Would take a severe external shock such as the collapse of the euro or Spain or Italy needing a bailout to require a mini-budget.

Tigerandahalf

battle_hardend wrote: »

the euro wont be allowed to crash for the simple reason that the usa and china would take too big of a hit , markets ( including currency markets ) are not near as free as we are led to believe , the euro could go to parity with the dollar although i doubt it , if germany gets its way and is allowed full control of each countrys budgetery policy , this will boost the strength of the euro , this is the price germany will charge for bailing ireland , spain , italy and who knows else out , its a huge political challenge of course

That is one of the dangers though. If this Fiscal Treaty goes through Germany decides what the budget is no matter what gov the people elect in their own country. This can only create a political vacuum especially if austerity turns into a 10 year programme. It would have to be accompanied by some form of stimulus as well. Otherwise you could have a revolt in some countries. Are there armies big enough to do a coup in Italy/Spain/Greece?? As after this treaty the politicians in their own countries would be powerless and the people would see this to be the case. Who do the people vent against then?
Like is there going to be a solution to tackle youth unemployment? It seems to be far down the list at the moment. Austerity on its own will only make matters worse.
To get back to the thread topic - with Britain entering recession this is bound to affect our exports plus tourism from Britain. People would be booking holidays now etc, so if things are bad they may hold off completely. Hardly good if we are to avoid that 2nd bailout. Dan O'Brien in IT reckons it is on the cards.

Sappa

Chucky the tree wrote: »

If there is another budget I can't see it being announced in before the referendum, unless they really are bad at the PR game. Also, when a country is running a €16bn deficit I can't help but laugh at people who complain about tax increase and charges, what else is going to happen? Now while the Government haven't done enough in terms of cuts and that has been obvious to everyone they will eventually realise that it is what they need to do.

The whole of the EU is running a massive deficit but all we here is Ireland Ireland,were not the only one who needs to get our house in order but you would swear we are the only ones over spending.
Its laughable to think the EU would cut funding off for Ireland considering that all our bank debt is to pay back German/French banks.

lmimmfn

hmmm wrote: »

Why would something that will only happen in your head affect a referendum? What do you mean the local economy is destroyed as a consequence of last years budget - the economy is pretty much the same as it was this time last year.

yeah yeah in my head

The Government’s revision to gross national product, a narrower measure of economic activity, went from growth of 0.7 per cent to a contraction of 0.2 per cent. Much of this will be accounted for by households spending less. Private spending is set to fall by 1.5 per cent in 2012, the fifth consecutive year of decline.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2012/0428/1224315297334.html

Farmer Pudsey

battle_hardend wrote: »

the euro wont be allowed to crash for the simple reason that the usa and china would take too big of a hit , markets ( including currency markets ) are not near as free as we are led to believe , the euro could go to parity with the dollar although i doubt it , if germany gets its way and is allowed full control of each countrys budgetery policy , this will boost the strength of the euro , this is the price germany will charge for bailing ireland , spain , italy and who knows else out , its a huge political challenge of course[/QUOTe

It is not a matter of allowing the Euro to crash the reaity is that bar Ireland the PIIGS are not doing austerity. Even Ireland to protect the poor and vunerable, the Public Service and well off have ruined our private sector. We are afer four years of recession and no growth and still have about four more before we will get growth if we carry on with austerity.

The government to balance the budget plan to take 1000-1500 euro from every working family for the next 3-4 years and half that from single workers. If we only had to balance the budget we would be well on our way to it now.:cool:
However this is not the case we also have to bail out German and French Banks who lend recklessly to the PIGGS. NAMA will cost us another 20-30 Billion as I cannot see it managing to get the money it paid for the loans all back as well as what we already put into the banks. Is it 50 Billion
Growth is the only thing that will allow us to balance our budgets we need to get at least 150,000 off the dole and I cannot see that happening as our Social Welfare system is too generous if I was unemployed in the North of Ireland I be moving south and anywhere else in Europe i consider it except for the bloody rain.:rolleyes:
The Germans are not bailing us out, ordinary people in Ireland are bailing out Germany if they had to bail out there own banks and help the French do the same they would not be half as worried about Budget deficits and Inflation.:cool:

murphaph

Dubit10 wrote: »

Won't matter either way. When the government lose the referendum the coalition will collapse as the euro goes into meltdown. We are up shi tcreek without a paddle i'm afraid.

The Euro won't melt down because of our referendum decision, believe me. We might be the only country left using a worthless version of the Euro as the other core countries create a new stable currency to carry on with however, but it will be the spirit of thze Euro while we have the Euro in name only.