Would the Irish state survive Peak Oil ?

whydave

As stated do you think the Irish state would survive 'Peak Oil' and the aftermath, would you ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHvd7WHQZ78

RoboClam

This is a fairly long video, which I don't have time to look at now unfortunately.

What are your thoughts on it? Any particularly interesting parts of the video which I should look at?

whydave

RoboClam wrote: »

This is a fairly long video, which I don't have time to look at now unfortunately.What are your thoughts on it? Any particularly interesting parts of the video which I should look at?

Sorry but it's not like that,I would advise watching all of it when you get a chance.
but you could read here

David

derry

Peak oil itself is a total conspiracy.The amounts of oil deposits getting found in the planet are large with ever larger finds being made every year
Proof is simple.If we take the price of a USA gallon in the USA in 1919 when they made the Model T car which was about a few cents per gallon and we convert that to to todays money we find it to be equal $3.50 a gallon If we apply the same formulas to this fuel through the 1920's era 1930's era all the way todays era (strip out government tax from the recent periods) we can make graph that shows the rises and falls in the price of petrol fuel .
The graph general trend is down wards from 1919 $3.50 a gallon to when we show recent times 2010 petrol cost $2.40 a gallon ( before the recent spike)
On average the price of a gallon of petrol fuel in the USA has been falling year on year .
If oil was getting short or peaking we would have expected to see a flat line event about the year 1990 through to 1999 and then a gradual rise in price from that time to now .
Since the last price spike a few years ago when oil went to $150 a barrel there has come on stream vast new finds such as the Brazilian oil finds of the coast estimated to be at least ~50% the size of the total oil fields in Saudi Arabia.Other vast oil feilds finds have been found in western Africa .So much oil has been found in western Africa that the oil in Nigeria mostly owned by the Bush family and the Dutch royal family that they have decided that that all oil production in Nigeria will be stopped by 2013. This method of stopping oil production from that oil rich region and getting Nigeria to import oil from neighboring countries it is hoped will help a oil price hike from lack of oil supplies
So we can see the real agenda is sing the song oil peak cut down oil production and wait for prices to increase .Too much oil production makes prices go down.
The reality it is starting to look like that oil fields is becoming embarrassing obvious that it is very abundant and we have probably got enough oil to supply the human race 1000 years or more and that including all the Indians, Chinese, Asians and Africans with their own cars .

The real question you should ask is how will we Irish cope when the oil producers namely the Shell BP Texaco and the rest stop supplying Ireland with oil .
Thats what these oil giant gougers do to make money they switch off the tap and then peoples have to spend a fortune to get it from anyplace they can .

The reason the USA dollar has value is it is tied to oil and the energy it makes .If oil becomes abundant then the USA dollar becomes worth a lot less.
If alternatives like free energy comes on stream the USA dollar becomes worthless

I recommend that that you grow sugar beet and convert your car to run on ethanol made from sugar beet .
Thats why the New world order got the last gombeen men regime in power in Ireland to get rid of the sugar beet industry.They knew they would make fuel shortages in the 2012 era onwards and they did not want Ireland to have solutions like turning sugar beet into ethanol fuels to replace petrol fuels

Derry

Jaafa

Vast amounts of speculation in that post derry. Care to provide some sources? The theory that petrol prices have been steady in the last 100 years is a pretty interesting one.

whydave

derry wrote: »

Peak oil itself is a total conspiracy.

okay , but it will run out,thus it will at some stage reach a 'peak' !And my question stands would the Irish state would survive 'Peak Oil' and the aftermath, would you ?
David

hooradiation

derry wrote: »

Peak oil itself is a total conspiracy.The amounts of oil deposits getting found in the planet are large with ever larger finds being made every year

Ignoring the rest of your post for the moment, I think this demonstrates a fundamental misunderstanding.

Peak oil is the point where a maximum rate of extraction is reached, after which there is a irreversible decline. This happens on a small scale - with individual reserves and thus on a larger scale.

Now, in order for peak oil to be a conspiracy we'd have to accept that oil reserves are infinite in nature.
Seeing as they aren't then the phenomenon of 'peak oil' cannot be a conspiracy.

It's also worth noting we won't actually know when we've hit peak oil until we've passed it - and that point is still a matter of debate. General consensus is that we haven't yet, but will soon.
Granted these are all based on current projection - for example there was a drop in oil consumption in the early 80's as people switched to more fuel efficient cars, which threw previous predictions of hitting peak oil in the mid 90's out.
Also - passing peak oil won't, necessarily, mean a sudden drop and we're all screwed. Simply, we'll have passed the point of maximum extraction, the effect will be tied to how drastic the decline is. Once again - mostly speculation on what'll happen there.


As for the OP's question - probably. Human ingenuity is a pretty powerful force. If we get an accurate prediction of when peak oil will hit (and provided it's not next Tuesday) I don't see why we can't start slowly transitioning to alternatives and make the transition to a post-peak oil world with very little by the way of trauma.

whydave

hooradiation wrote: »

As for the OP's question - probably. Human ingenuity is a pretty powerful force. If we get an accurate prediction of when peak oil will hit (and provided it's not next Tuesday) I don't see why we can't start slowly transitioning to alternatives and make the transition to a post-peak oil world with very little by the way of trauma.

True but this would be in the world were governments tell their people whom elected them the truth the whole truth and nothing that smells of BS !

hooradiation

whydave wrote: »

True but this would be in the world were governments tell their people whom elected them the truth the whole truth and nothing that smells of BS !

I really don't get what you're trying to say here, you may have to expand on it.

Gumbi

I don't think derry understands what Peak Oil actually means.

Incidentally, derry, can you point to where the world will fuel it's need for oil addiction in the next 20 years, seeing as almost all major oil fields have already peaked, and that all recent finds are nowhere near the monstrous fields of the past?

Merrion

Yes if we develop thorium reactor technology or buy-in energy from whoever does (most likely the French).

Gumbi

Merrion wrote: »

Yes if we develop thorium reactor technology or buy-in energy from whoever does (most likely the French).

How would that replace oil? Do you realise how many things oil is used for?

whydave

hooradiation wrote: »

I really don't get what you're trying to say here, you may have to expand on it.

What I'm getting at is do you think the Government of this state tells the people the whow truth an ever issue (any issue)?Thus how can an issue like Peak oil transit without some form of chaos !

Gumbi

whydave wrote: »

What I'm getting at is do you think the Government of this state tell the people the whow truth an ever issue (any issue)?Thus how can an issue like Peak oil transit without some form of chaos !

Fairly layman viewpoint here. Ireland generally ranks high on self-sustainability charts, so I don't think the transition would be as crazy as it would be in America, for example. Ireland exports a huge amount of produce every year.

studiorat

http://oilsmokeandmirrors.com/index2.htm
Good movie made by Ronan Doyle in 2007.

Ronan also provides links to criticism of Peak oil...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiotic_oil Basically saying oil doesn't come from biological mass...

Also google the Hubbert Humbug

whydave

Gumbi wrote: »

Fairly layman viewpoint here. Ireland exports a huge amount of produce every year.

Exports:
oil powered farm equipment .
oil powered road transport .
oil powered processing plants .(never mind plastics)
oil powered road transport .
oil powered ships .
Imports:
oil powered ships .
oil powered road transport
oil powered distribution centers.
oil powered road transport .
oil powered shops (electricity)
oil powered transport (getting you home)
oil powered cookers !

can you see were this is going !

Now back to the question in hand :
Do you think the Irish state would survive 'Peak Oil' and the aftermath, would you ?

Gumbi

We export an awful lot of food products and pharmaceuticals. Of course, almost everything these days is reliant on oil. I am not denying that. In any case, like I said, Ireland generally ranks fairly highly on sustainability charts. I think we'd be in a better position than most to survive Peak Oil, especially if we plan for it. it's going to be rough either way.

whydave

Gumbi wrote: »

We export an awful lot of food products and pharmaceuticals. Of course, almost everything these days is reliant on oil. I am not denying that. In any case, like I said, Ireland generally ranks fairly highly on sustainability charts. I think we'd be in a better position than most to survive Peak Oil, especially if we plan for it. it's going to be rough either way.

Use at home :

oil powered farm equipment .
oil powered road transport
oil powered processing plants .(never mind plastics)
oil powered road transport
oil powered distribution centers.
oil powered road transport .
oil powered shops (electricity)
oil powered transport (getting you home)
oil powered cookers !

hooradiation

whydave wrote: »

What I'm getting at is do you think the Government of this state tells the people the whow truth an ever issue (any issue)?Thus how can an issue like Peak oil transit without some form of chaos !

That does not follow.
Your assertion that the current government never tells the "whole truth", even if that were true, it does not follow that
A] They would "lie" on all issues
B] That this lying is the only issue standing between a seamless transition to a post-peak oil world.

As much as it's comforting to have "the government" to blame for everything it's too simplistic to be useful.

whydave

hooradiation wrote: »

That does not follow.
Your assertion that the current government never tells the "whole truth", even if that were true, it does not follow that
A] They would "lie" on all issues

First: I'm not just talking about the current government but most if not all Governments of this state have at one time or another be found to be withholding the truth for the citizens of this state.

hooradiation wrote: »

B] That this lying is the only issue standing between a seamless transition to a post-peak oil world.

Second:If we are not advise or consulted on a plan then there will be a form of chaos and it is this time of 'chaos' to which i pose my question: Do you think the Irish state would survive 'Peak Oil' and the aftermath, would you ?

hooradiation wrote: »

As much as it's comforting to have "the government" to blame for everything it's too simplistic to be useful.

As for blaming the Government being 'too simplistic' whom would you point the finger of blame when this issue becomes a reality ?Are they not in the pay of the citizens of this state to plan and prepare for this type of event or would it be better just to except 'the people just went a bit mad'.

studiorat

Irelands Oil usage dropped 25% between 2009 and 2011 and is currently down over 30% from peak (1999 I believe).
It's still about 140,000 barrels a day!!! Our Per Capita use is about the same as Norway and twice that of the UK.

The biggest drops in usage appear to be in aviation fuel and heating oil, but are across the board, I would have thought the construction industry would have been in factor. This is despite a growth in population.

whydave

studiorat wrote: »

Irelands Oil usage dropped 25% between 2009 and 2011 and is currently down over 30% from peak (1999 I believe).
The biggest drops appear to be in aviation fuel and heating oil but are across the board, I would have thought the construction industry would have been in factor. This is despite a growth in population.

aviation fuel and heating oil : people not going on holidays and only putting on the heating went it gets really cold !

Gumbi

whydave wrote: »

Use at home :

oil powered farm equipment .
oil powered road transport
oil powered processing plants .(never mind plastics)
oil powered road transport
oil powered distribution centers.
oil powered road transport .
oil powered shops (electricity)
oil powered transport (getting you home)
oil powered cookers !

What the hell is your point? I have already stated that we rely on oil for nigh on everything. Make a point, please.

whydave

Gumbi wrote: »

What the hell is your point? I have already stated that we rely on oil for nigh on everything. Make a point, please.

I'm sorry but question for debate : Do you thing the state would survive peak oil.The points made to counter this is we export a lot thus we'd be fine,my point was that the use of oil is in all parts of our lifes,leading to the second part of my question would you survive peak oil !
hope that helps
David

Gumbi

whydave wrote: »

I'm sorry but question for debate : Do you thing the state would survive peak oil.The points made to counter this is we export a lot thus we'd be fine,my point was that the use of oil is in all parts of our lifes,leading to the second part of my question would you survive peak oil !
hope that helps
David

I answered that. Your rebuttal clearly didn't take into account what I actually said in my answer. I'd read it again if I were you.

hooradiation

whydave wrote: »

First: I'm not just talking about the current government but most if not all Governments of this state have at one time or another be found to be withholding the truth for the citizens of this state.

If anything casting the blame on every government this state has had weakens your idea further.
Government is not a gestalt entity and one cannot treat it as such, except in the most simplistic of situations.

And as an addendum - yes, and, therefore, so? Everybody lies. And more to the point, if you're of the opinion that every government lies and that therefore any possible future government will then haven't you created a self self-fulfilling prophecy?

You do realise you've set a series of conditions that make it, by your reasoning, for it to be impossible for the government to ever tell the truth, at least as far as you're concerned.

whydave wrote: »

Second:If we are not advise or consulted on a plan then there will be a form of chaos

What is it you imagine plebiscite brings to the table in this scenario?

whydave wrote: »

As for blaming the Government being 'too simplistic' whom would you point the finger of blame when this issue becomes a reality ?Are they not in the pay of the citizens of this state to plan and prepare for this type of event or would it be better just to except 'the people just went a bit mad'.

Place all the blame on "the government" if you wish, I find it to be a worthless waste of time and energy, myself.

Regardless, the transition into a post peak-oil world will require a concerted effort from experts, private and public industries and of course people themselves. And, like a lot of these things we won't know if we've made the right decision until well after we've made said decision.
What won't help is setting ourselves up to fail from the outset with predestined blame appropriation.

whydave

hooradiation wrote: »

If anything casting the blame on every government this state has had weakens your idea further.
Government is not a gestalt entity and one cannot treat it as such, except in the most simplistic of situations.

And as an addendum - yes, and, therefore, so? Everybody lies. And more to the point, if you're of the opinion that every government lies and that therefore any possible future government will then haven't you created a self self-fulfilling prophecy?

You do realise you've set a series of conditions that make it, by your reasoning, for it to be impossible for the government to ever tell the truth, at least as far as you're concerned.
What is it you imagine plebiscite brings to the table in this scenario?
Place all the blame on "the government" if you wish, I find it to be a worthless waste of time and energy, myself.
Regardless, the transition into a post peak-oil world will require a concerted effort from experts, private and public industries and of course people themselves. And, like a lot of these things we won't know if we've made the right decision until well after we've made said decision.
What won't help is setting ourselves up to fail from the outset with predestined blame appropriation.

Well said ! I like your points (please note this is not sarcasm )
tanks
David