seeds for next years HEC

DeDoc

Tier 1
=======
Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff
plus Biarritz if they win the Amlin,
plus Clermont if they win their semi, OR if Biarritz don't win the Amlin
plus Saints if Clermont lose their semi OR Biarritz fail to win the Amlin
plus Ulster if Clermont lose their semi AND Biarritz fail to win the Amlin AND Ulster win the HEC
plus Stade Francais if they win the Amlin AND Clermont lose their semi

Tier 2
======
Leicester
Quins
Toulon
Edinburgh
plus Saints if Clermont win their semi AND Biarritz win the Amlin
plus Ulster if they fail to win the HEC
plus Stade Francais if (Toulon or Stade Francais win the Amlin AND Clermont lose their semi) OR Clermont win the HEC
plus Clermont if they lose their semi AND (Biarritz OR Stade Francais win the Amlin OR Ulster win the HEC)
plus Ospreys if Brive win the Amlin

Tier 3
======
Scarlets
Glasgow
Sale
Saracens
plus Wasps OR Bath (if Wasps are relegated) if Clermont OR Edinburgh win the HEC
plus Brive if they win the Amlin otherwise the Ospreys
plus Connacht if Leinster OR Ulster win the HEC

Tier 4
======
Treviso
Castres
Racing
Montpellier
Exeter
Second Italian qualifier

thomond2006

Cardiff are the dream Tier 1 team to draw, they are going to be seriously weak next season.

ongarite

Some potentially horror draws there for Tier 1 teams:
Leinster or Munster could get:
Leicester/Quins
Saracens
Montpellier/Castres

CIARAN_BOYLE

ongarite wrote: »

Some potentially horror draws there for Tier 1 teams:
Leinster or Munster could get:
Leicester/Quins
Saracens
Montpellier/Castres

No they couldn't can only have one from each country in a group and only a second team in any group if a team from that country won the HEC or Amlin so no chance of two english teams.

Ulster might be dreaming of
Biarritz
Sale
Second Italian qualifier

tolosenc

Saints, Brive and Italy 2 would be handy out!

d-gal

That makes my head hurt!

Being honest a lot of team would look for Connacht for a tier 3 team. More potential horror groups!
Racing wouldn't be a bad team to get IMO, a lot of players leaving and aging

Teferi

ongarite wrote: »

Some potentially horror draws there for Tier 1 teams:
Leinster or Munster could get:
Leicester/Quins
Saracens
Montpellier/Castres

I'm not really afraid of any groups of death, obviously it could go disastrously and you fail to qualify but if you do qualify you come out amazingly strong and battle-hardened. Look at Leinster last year compared to this year. We've had a fairly easy run to the Semis compared to last year where it looks like we battled through the seven levels of hell to reach the final.

Monty Burnz

I really don't think Munster merit tier one seeding anymore.

CatFromHue

Teferi wrote: »

I'm not really afraid of any groups of death, obviously it could go disastrously and you fail to qualify but if you do qualify you come out amazingly strong and battle-hardened. Look at Leinster last year compared to this year. We've had a fairly easy run to the Semis compared to last year where it looks like we battled through the seven levels of hell to reach the final.

I agree. Certainly as a supporter this season's HEC has been a bit meh we were always going to win the games, until now that is. Contrast that with last season which was the complete opposite where every game, bar the last pool game, was edge of the seat stuff.

Somewhere in between would be nice to be honest. This season I've found myself concentrating more on the other provinces games than Leinsters as they were more exciting.

Fishooks12

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I really don't think Munster merit tier one seeding anymore.

I think they do. Only side to win all their group games

CatFromHue

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I really don't think Munster merit tier one seeding anymore.

The seedings will never pick up who is the strongest team for the next season or even the current season. In the last 4 seasons Munster have lost 5 out of 24 pool games which is very impressive and been Semi Finalists twice. Compare that to Cardiff!

Monty Burnz

CatFromHue wrote: »

The seedings will never pick up who is the strongest team for the next season or even the current season. In the last 4 seasons Munster have lost 5 out of 24 pool games which is very impressive and been Semi Finalists twice. Compare that to Cardiff!

Fair point, but we are really there on past glory at this stage (I regard the 6 from 6 as a bit of an aberration).

its_phil

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Fair point, but we are really there on past glory at this stage (I regard the 6 from 6 as a bit of an aberration).

So is everyone there. How else could you fairly rank it?

The fact Munster, Leinster, and Toulouse won their respective groups shows they are tier one sides on current form as well as past form.

Shelflife

How would Connacht be a tier 3 team ? does their amlin record count in some way?

CatFromHue

Monty Burnz wrote: »

Fair point, but we are really there on past glory at this stage (I regard the 6 from 6 as a bit of an aberration).

The seeding have everyone there on past glory though. It's how they work.

its_phil

Shelflife wrote: »

How would Connacht be a tier 3 team ? does their amlin record count in some way?

4 points from Amlin Semi Final versus Toulon, one point from this year and one point from an Amlin quarter (Newcastle?) a few years back.

Robbo

Shelflife wrote: »

How would Connacht be a tier 3 team ? does their amlin record count in some way?

4 ranking points for the Semi Final against Toulon, 1 for 4th place in the Heineken cup this year.

DeDoc

I've had a mistake pointed out to me - namely that the HEC winners automatically become number 1 seeds. Thus:

Tier 1
=======
Leinster
Toulouse
Munster
Cardiff

plus Ulster OR Edinburgh OR Clermont if they win the HEC, OR (Clermont if they lose the final AND Biarritz fail to win the Amlin)
plus Biarritz if they win the Amlin,
plus Saints if Leinster win AND Biarritz fail to win the Amlin
plus Stade Francais if they win the Amlin AND Leinster win the HEC

Tier 2
======
Leicester
Quins
Toulon

plus Saints if Clermont win their semi OR Biarritz win the Amlin OR Edinburgh OR Ulster win the HEC
plus Ulster OR Edinburgh if they fail to win the HEC
plus Stade Francais if Leinster fail to win the HEC AND (Toulon OR Stade Francais win the Amlin)
plus Clermont if (they lose their semi AND Biarritz OR Stade win the Amlin) OR (Ulster OR Edinburgh win the HEC) OR (they lose the final AND Biarritz win AND (Ulster OR Edinburgh win the HEC))
plus Ospreys if Brive win the Amlin

Tier 3
======
Scarlets
Glasgow
Sale
Saracens

plus Wasps OR Bath (if Wasps are relegated) if Clermont OR Edinburgh win the HEC
plus Brive if they win the Amlin otherwise the Ospreys
plus Connacht if Leinster OR Ulster win the HEC

Tier 4
======
Treviso
Castres
Racing
Montpellier
Exeter
Second Italian qualifier

totallegend

DeDoc wrote: »

I've had a mistake pointed out to me - namely that the HEC winners automatically become number 1 seeds.

I did a similar analysis on the general Heineken Cup thread a couple of weeks ago and someone posted the same thing; I don't know where they got it from, so if you have a reference, I'd be interested to see it confirmed.

(No mention of it on the rankings page: http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/ranking.php)

Podge_irl

It's on that page

The rankings will establish four tiers of six teams each with the reigning Heineken Cup champions automatically going into Tier 1 along with Europe's other, currently, most successful teams.

totallegend

Podge_irl wrote: »

It's on that page

Well I'm clearly just a retard. Thanks.

irishbucsfan

If I was Connacht I'd hope for Cardiff, Saints and and Italian team!

tolosenc

irishbucsfan wrote: »

If I was Connacht I'd hope for Cardiff, Saints and and Italian team!

They need a French team

CIARAN_BOYLE

irishbucsfan wrote: »

If I was Connacht I'd hope for Cardiff, Saints and and Italian team!

To be honest Connacht probably hope for big names to fill the stadium and build local interest with their superstar visitors.

Zzippy

irishbucsfan wrote: »

If I was Connacht I'd hope for Cardiff, Saints and and Italian team!

We just hope we get into the feckin' thing, never mind who we get in the pool!

Otacon

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

To be honest Connacht probably hope for big names to fill the stadium and build local interest with their superstar visitors.

Something tells me progression would be more valuable.

Otacon

Otacon wrote: »

Something tells me progression would be more valuable.

but unrealistic at this stage.

irishbucsfan

Dallas Better Goose-step wrote: »

Otacon wrote: »

Something tells me progression would be more valuable.

but unrealistic at this stage.

Unlikely but not unrealistic. If Connacht got an easier group (IE not this years one) they could win a couple of games. A bit of a run and they could get out. If Munster can go unbeaten then Connacht can sneak out of an easy group.

They need to improve though. Although with the signings they're making I'd expect that to happen.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Unlikely but not unrealistic. If Connacht got an easier group (IE not this years one) they could win a couple of games. A bit of a run and they could get out. If Munster can go unbeaten then Connacht can sneak out of an easy group.

They need to improve though. Although with the signings they're making I'd expect that to happen.

I would imagine that regardless of groups, Connacht will be no shorter than 4/1 to qualify for the knock out stages next season.

porterbelly

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

To be honest Connacht probably hope for big names to fill the stadium and build local interest with their superstar visitors.

With a fully fit squad we'll give most teams a test. With a bit of luck and without a couple of individual errors we could have had 3/4 wins on the board against good sides.

If we're a tier 3 team most teams will want to draw us. If we're a tier 4 team nobody will want to draw us because we have respect for the competition and will put out a full side all the way through and try and win every game regardless if we're out or not, unlike some of the Frenchies

tolosenc

I think Connacht would sell the tickets regardless. A soft team or 2 and Connacht have a real shot at second place. Knockouts somewhere is good!

d-gal

If connacht got Cardiff, saints and racing I'd fancy them to put on a decent showing. 3 very possible home wins and a few BPs you never know...but getting the likes of Clermont, Sarries + montpellier would be very difficult!
Ah f*ck it, let's get Connacht to the HC and bring on Clermont! They think their home is scary, wait til they come out West! Pure rain and misery and Swifty to beat lumps out of Cudmore

DeDoc

porterbelly wrote: »

With a fully fit squad we'll give most teams a test. With a bit of luck and without a couple of individual errors we could have had 3/4 wins on the board against good sides.

If we're a tier 3 team most teams will want to draw us. If we're a tier 4 team nobody will want to draw us because we have respect for the competition and will put out a full side all the way through and try and win every game regardless if we're out or not, unlike some of the Frenchies

Connacht will be a tier 3 team if they're involved, as at least 7 qualifiers will have fewer ranking points than them. Saints, Ospreys and Castres would probably be your dream group

freyners

as zzippy pointed out, Ill be happy with being in it.

also tbh I dont think we need to fear too many teams, certainly if not for a bounce of a ball or a bit of bad luck we would have picked up a win in one of the glaws games and inexperienced costs us away to quins. While qualification for the knockout stages would be the stuff of my wildest dreams i would be quite happy to see us closing out home games alot better and turning some of our losing bp in both comps into wins