UFC / MMA Log

Leeg17

Going to be running a log here for a while (virtual bank). I give the odd tip to friends and have a decent strike rate so let's just see where it goes..

Rules:

• Bank - Starting off with 100pts.
• Stakes - 5/7.5/10 depending on confidence in the bet.
• Have fun
• Most tips will be evens or above, singles and doubles and the odd fun event accum.

Gave one tip for tonight that won (17/10):



Will have tips for next weeks event (UFC 145) for next week in a few days.

ConorBFC3

Good luck with this. Be interesting to see a log on a sport like this for a change.

Leeg17

ConorBFC3 wrote: »

Good luck with this. Be interesting to see a log on a sport like this for a change.

Cheers, hopefully my form keeps up.. no doubt it won't :pac:

Nuri Sahin

I hate you.

Good luck ya cheeky scamp ya

Leeg17

Hey all. Really looking forward to this event and hopefully I have a few decent tips in store:

1:
-> Jones win via KO - 1/1 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> 10 pts.

Jonny "Bones" Jones is coming in to defend his LHW title on a 6 win-streak against his former training partner "Sugar" Rashad Evans. The market is rightly sided with the champion with a meagre 1/5 for a win compared to 2/1 for Evans. Evans is coming off quite a lack luster and relatively disappointing performance against Phil Davis at UFC on Fox 2.

Jones: 15W-1L (WWWWW): 53% via KO/TKO, 33% via submission and 13% via decision.
Evans: 17W-1L (WWWWL): 35% via KO/TKO, 12% via submission and 53% via decision.

Jones will be looking to finish this fight early using his impressive reach (the longest in the UFC) and accurate striking taking care to avoid leaving it in the hands of the judges, where Evans tends to outpoint opponents more often than not.

2:
-> Brendan Schaub win via KO - 1/1 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 6.5/10.
-> 5 pts.

Brendan Schaub, a TUF10 finalist is returning from a first round KO loss to Big Nog at UFC 134, against Ben Rothwell on Saturday. Bookies are offering 2/1 for a Rothwell win and 1/3 for Schaub to emerge victorious. Rothwell's recent record has been off-and on, but I can't see anything other than a Schaub winning how he wins best, KO with punches especially considering exactly half of Rothwell's losses have been via KO.

Schaub: 8W-2L (LWWWW): 88% via KO/TKO, 12% via decision.
Rothwell: 31W-8L (LWLWL): 55% via KO/TKO, 35% via submission and 10% via decision.

3:
-> Alessio vs. Bocek: Will the fight go the distance, no - 10/11 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 5/10.
-> 5 pts.

Stats suggest this fight won't go the distance. 80% of Bocek's fights finished before the judge's decision was needed, with 79% of Alessio's ending in the same way (and only 29% and 50% of their losses coming from decisions, respectively). Bocek loves his rear naked choke submission so a win via submission at 13/8 might be worth looking into also.

Fun accumulator (~ 23/10):
Hominick win (1/7), Bocek win (2/7), Schaub vs. Rothwell fight will not go the distance (4/9), McDonald win (1/6) and Jones win via KO or Sub (1/3).

In-play: 20 points.
Bank: 80 points.

Best of luck to anyone following

Leeg17

For anyone interested there's 2 prelim fights on Facebook at 12.

Updated stats if anyone's thinking of betting tonight:

Bet 1 - Jones KO - 5/4
Bet 2 - Schaub KO - 11/10
Bet 3 - Bocek, full distance no - 1/1

Formation

Odds drifting. How did these go for you?

Meaning to watch a bit more UFC.

Leeg17

Formation wrote: »

Odds drifting. How did these go for you?

Meaning to watch a bit more UFC.

They all lost unfortunately, disappointing to say the least

Jones was rocking Rashad with some serious elbows in the second round but never capitalised on them.

Schaub went for a tit-for-tat flurry of punches in the 1st round but got caught for a bit left hook and was KO'd, he ended up kicking and grabbing at the air he was that out of it.

Bocek had the chance for a rear naked choke towards the end of the second round but it never materialised.

Bet 1 - Jones KO - 5/4 (Loss)
Bet 2 - Schaub KO - 11/10 (Loss)
Bet 3 - Bocek, full distance no - 1/1 (Loss)

Bank: 70pts

Leeg17

Too lazy to do a proper write up:

1:
-> Pat Barry win via KO - 1/1 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> 10 pts.

2:
-> Johnny Hendricks win - 8/11 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> 10 pts.

3:
-> Palhares vs. Belcher, Sub victory - 10/11 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 6/10.
-> 7.5 pts.

4:
-> Diaz vs. Miller, fight to go the distance, no - 7/4 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 5/10
-> 5 pts.

Best of luck to anyone that's following

Formation

Good luck.

Can you recommend a site to watch a full match the following day and a good news site that explains recent news in a good way for someone unfamiliar with the sport?

im used to using statistical analysis like poission distributions to price up football. How do you price up MMA?

Leeg17

Thanks man

I personally use sites like MmaMania, Sherdog and MmaJunkie.

As for the bets I use the Sherdog website to base my decisions on form, strengths and weaknesses of the fighters and the news websites above for some information that may not normally be factored in by the bookies (for example Anthony Rumble Johnson was cutting weight for UFC 142, collapsed and reportedly lost use of his legs for about 20 minutes. He fought against Vitor Belfort the night after that and as you can imagine wouldn't have been 100%, odds on a Belfort win were about 5/4 but I'd have happily lumped it they where 4/5 or less). I don't use any fancy shmancy stats analysis on them.

As for watching it, I watch it live on Facebook (free prelims) followed by UFC.tv (free prelims) and then the main card on ESPN. You wouldn't get an illegal download about 12 hours after the last fight is aired, okay?

Leeg17

-> Pat Barry win via KO - 1/1 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> 10 pts.

Really wasn't expecting this result at all, Johnson won via KO (was 23/10) which shows who the market favourite was..

-> Johnny Hendricks win - 8/11 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> 10 pts.

Hendricks won by split decision, it was a very close fight but I'm glad he came out on top.

-> Palhares vs. Belcher, Sub victory - 10/11 (Paddy Power)
-> Confidence - 6/10.
-> 7.5 pts.

Quite an eventful match. Belcher won via KO in a series of moves that saw him dominate in what you'd expect Palhares to be most comfortable with, and that is his ground game. Couldn't really see this coming.

-> Diaz vs. Miller, fight to go the distance, no - 7/4 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 5/10
-> 5 pts.

Diaz pulled off a very impressive one armed guillotine choke that's sure to be used in his highlight reel for future (title contension?) fights over Miller putting him in a serious position for the lightweight title. Miller has never been finished before so that'll make the Diaz win that much sweeter.

____

2/4 tonight, at least I finally won some. I swear I've been better before :rolleyes:

Bank:
68.55 (-1.45)

Leeg17

Hey all, my picks for this week are as follows:

1. Donald Cerrone win via Sub/Points - 4/9 (Paddy Power)
-> Confidence - 8.5/10
-> 10 pts.

Of Cowboy's 17 wins 94% have come either via points (18%) or submission (76%), his record is impressive considering that 2 of his past 3 losses in the last 3 years have been from the now-LW chamption Benson Henderson. I can see him either getting an early submission (12/5 for win via Sub.. definitely worth considering!) or grinding out a win from the floor (7/5 for win via points).

2. Cerrone win via Sub - 12/5 (Paddy Power)
-> Confidence 6.5/10
-> 5 points

See above.

3. Poirer vs. Jung, fight to go the distance, no - 8/13 (Paddy Power)
-> Confidence - 7/10
-> 10 pts.

Poirer is 12-1 with 10 of those wins coming from either KO or Sub fighting the Korean Zombie who 83% of his wins (12-3) did not rely on the judge's decision. The korean zombie last fought at UFC 140 and will be remembered for this highlight reel 7 second KO of Mark Hominick. Both fighters are undefeated in their UFC careers and both will be looking to secure the #1 contender slot against José Aldo in the Featherweight division.


Unfortunately I can't really see anything else of value on Paddy Power for this event.

Best of luck to anyone following.

Leeg17

Just an update:

The event starts tomorrow night, here's some updated stats from PP:

1. Cerrone via points/sub: 4/9
2. Cerrone via sub: 12/5
3. Korean zombie fight not go the distance: 2/5

I'll add a small tip of McKenzie win @ 5/6 (5pts) against Levesseur in the undercard. McKenzie has lost 2 of his UFC but will be coming out needing a win to give him some sort of hope for staying. Odds aren't up for any other markets, but he'll be looking to win via submission (92% of his wins are via submission).

As always, best of luck to anyone following.

Leeg17

Main event finished just now, really enjoyed it, some great fights

1.Donald Cerrone win via Sub/Points - 4/9 (Paddy Power)
-> 10 pts.
(+ 4.44)

Cerrone dominated this fight in every respect winning by unanimous decision (30-27) against Stephens, never looked a doubt.

2.Cerrone win via Sub - 12/5 (Paddy Power)
-> 5 pts.
(-5)

I'm slightly annoyed with this because Cerrone had plenty of opportunities to go to ground and capitalise on Stephens falling and attempt what he's best at, a submission. Tonight Cerrone wanted to show that he is well capable of fighting where his opponents strengths lie, in this case stand up.

3. Poirer vs. Jung, fight to go the distance, no - 8/13 (Paddy Power)
-> 10 pts.
(+6.15)

Korean Zombie finished off this fight in a great finish combo of a flying knee, several punches and then a d'arce choke to propell him up a few ranks in the featherweight division noting in his post fight interview "I want José Aldo".

4. McKenzie win - 5/6 (Paddy Power)
-> 5pts
(+4.16)

McKenzie returned to form doing what he does best, guillotine chokes :cool:
A bit annoyed about Paddy Power taking so long to reply with odds for McKenzie winning via submission but I know for another time to request them a bit earlier..

Leeg17 wrote: »

Odds aren't up for any other markets, but he'll be looking to win via submission (92% of his wins are via submission).

_______

3/4 tonight thankfully and finally, a decent set of tips

Bank:
78.30 (+9.75)

Leeg17

Afternoon all, lovely weather and I'm inside researching and writing this post up

I really cannot wait for this event!!

1:
-> JDS vs. Mir - JDS win in round 1, 6/5 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7.5/10.
-> Stake - 10 points.

The title fight will see Cigano take on Frank Mir in what took a very unexpected turn of events. Junior was scheduled to be defending his HW title against the much hyped Alastair (Overroid :pac:) Overeem following his impressive first round win over Brock Lesnar at UFC 140 just before New Year's. Overeem was drug tested at the press conference for this event and his Testosterone:Epitestosterone ratio was determined to be 14:1, far past the NSAC limit of 6:1 and further again from the WADA (Olympic) limit of 4:1.

After much speculation and rumours Mir was eventually confirmed as being the challenger for the title, following his impressive kimora over Big Nog; Interesting to note Big Nog's only losses by KO and submission came from Mir. During that match Mir was getting rocked pretty hard by Nogueira's punches during round one before his eventual submission win in the second round.

JDS has arguably the best boxing in the UFC with 71% of his 14 wins coming from KO/TKO. Frank hasn't got the best stand up relative to JDS and with all of his 5 losses coming from KO/TKOs and I can't see anything past a JDS win via KO, which is a meagre 4/11. For some value I'm looking for a JDS first round win @ 6/5.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l14AZ7YtFU

(sorry for the quality)

2:
-> Cain Velasquez - Win via KO/TKO - 4/6 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 7/10.
-> Stake - 7.5 points.

The former HW champion Cain will be looking to come back from a title loss to JDS with an impressive win.

Cain loves KO's.

No further info needed really

3:
-> Roy Nelson - Win - 2/5 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 8/10.
-> Stake - 10 points.

If you don't mind going on odds this low, then this is my banker. Roy Nelson while coming off of 3 losses in his last 4 fights against Werdum, Mir and JDS respectively has a chin of absolute concrete (86% losses come via decision). Nelson can take a beating and usually pips fighters when they're gassed out after a number of rounds and I don't see this fight being any different.

Nelson doesn't look much the part with his belly and beard, but he has the heart of a warrior and hope he comes out on top with this one.

4:
-> Miller - Win - 4/6 (Paddy Power).
-> Confidence - 6.5/10.
-> Stake - 5 points.

Miller is coming off a less than impressive (to say the least) loss against Michael Bisping in December of last year. Having come back to the UFC since his departure in '05 a second win would look very bad on his part (maybe even resulting in him being given the marching orders) so he'll be looking to come out on top here at all costs.

C.B. Dolloway, 5-4 since joining the UFC needs a big win here to get his foot back into the Octagon but I can't see anything past a Miller win, possibly by decision.

______

Bank: 78.30 (32.50 in play)

Best of luck to anyone following