Thursday 12th April

rossom

5.25 AINTREE

SON OF FLICKA 11/1

Can’t desert him after he pretty much saved my Cheltenham at 40/1 and not much to say about this lad. Landed an absolute monster gamble at Cheltenham to win the Coral Cup impressively after this 8 year old had put behind him the ‘terrible’ form of the previous 12 months. McCain’s charge, off a mark of 135, returned to more prominent tactics and it is clear he was very, very well handicapped. At the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, Son of Flicka ran the excellent Sir Des Champs, winner of all his 4 starts over fences and now the Gold Cup favourite, to within half a length off a mark of 140 so its clear on the basis of his latest victory a lot of scope still remains for this gelding. I’m absolutely shocked to see that Son of Flicka has only been raised 7lb for his win at Cheltenham and I think it was a vast understatement of his performance by the handicapper. Furthermore, the form of that race received a massive boost yesterday with the 2nd Get Me Out Of Here landing a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse yesterday. I have absolutely no concerns about Son of Flicka’s ability to defy his mark but connections clearly fiddled with him in the past so it may happen again. However, he’s clearly a very talented horse and at 7 I think connections may want to see how far he can progress. At only 2lb below his 0.5L defeat behind Sir Des Champs and 7lb above his rout of the Coral Cup, Son of Flicka has run two good seconds at the track although there are doubts about him staying the 3m trip, he looked as if the extra distance would help at Cheltenham and his previous efforts over this trip were in the period where connections wanted to get him well handicapped so I am willing to ignore them. Can’t quite believe 11/1 is available and although I won’t be going all guns blazing due to doubts about if he is really trying I think if he is he could be very hard to beat.

MoscowFlyer

Rossom,

Legendary Times is out again tomorrow. 5.10 @ Gowran. Shocking start on Sat as we know, worth another shot?

UrbanSea

Naked Cowboy in the same race is the one I like most tomorrow.

rossom

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Rossom,

Legendary Times is out again tomorrow. 5.10 @ Gowran. Shocking start on Sat as we know, worth another shot?

UrbanSea wrote: »

Naked Cowboy in the same race is the one I like most tomorrow.

I have those two notebooked as well as Acts Out Loud who I have been waiting to reappear. Virtually every horse I was waiting to reappear is out tomorrow so I've a load of write ups on the way

rossom

2.35 FOLKESTONE

LIGHT BURST 7/1

This will be the first Hard Spun offspring of many I'll be putting up this season. Followed him stringently last year and he didn't disappoint, producing a 19.4% win and a 43.3% place rate from 31 runners last year and a ROI of 71%. Light Burst is a 3 year old from the Al Zarooni stable and I think the first and a very important thing to note is his rating of 63. Godolphin aren't going to be keeping a 63 rated horse unless they feel he is a lot better than his current mark so thats an obvious positive. In his 3 starts to date, Light Burst has pulled very hard and raced with an abundance of inexperience but he definitely showed some talent. On debut over 5f, he ran absolutely all over the shop but only was beaten 3L and last of 4 in the field. That said, the form of that race has worked out very nicely with the winner Sixx now rated 92, the 2nd Right Result now rated 89 and the 3rd Verse of Love rated 71. He couldn't even run in a straight line that day and it was a good performance to get as close as he did.

On his 2nd and 3rd starts it was a very similar story as he pulled very hard in the early stages of the race stepped up to 7f and he probably didn't last home in either effort. He did show a fair bit of potential both times and a mark of 63 certainly doesn't look beyond him. There's a strong chance Light Burst has grown in both stature and attitude between 2-3 and I am hoping his tendency to pull has been eradicated. Although he has to overcome a 6 month gap, connections excel at having their horses ready for seasonal reappearances so I am not concerned at all. Sylvestre De Sousa takes the ride as Light Burst gets in here with bottom weight. With the drop to 6f looking sure to suit, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he comes a very easy winner tomorrow.

rossom

‎6.40 GOWRAN PARK

REGAL TRAMP 8/1

If it wasn't for Fran Berry deserting Regal Tramp I'd be very, very confident and although Sam James is more than an able deputy and takes off an extremely valuable 5lb I'm going to have to take two from the race now. 2 starts back, Vincent Ward's 4 year old landed a pretty poor contest on the AW at Dundalk in impressive fashion to win by 1.5L over 12f. After breaking from a wide stall extremely well, Regal Tramp raced a bit closer to the pace than I envisaged but was given a lovely ride by Fran Berry to win. She travelled into the race beautifully and I don't think she was ever fully extended to win. It was just the sort of performance I was hoping to see and I'm convinced theres more to come. She's been raised only 5lb to a mark of 70 and I think the handicapper has been pretty lenient.

Prior to this, Regal Tramp put in a number of good performances off higher handicap marks, including a 0.5L defeat at the Galway Festival off a mark of 73 over trip as well as consecutive 2nds (although both 5L defeats) off marks of 75. It certainly demonstrates her ability to act on the turf and I have no doubt that she's better on this surface. On her last start, Regal Tramp went off favourite at Leopardstown only 5 days after her sole success to date when stepped up to 1m6f and sent off favourite. Again from a wide stall, she didn't break as well and as a result Fran Berry had her wide very wide the entire way around. Resultantly, she probably had to travel an extra couple of furlong and despite travelling into the race very well she didn't find much when asked which leads me to believe that she didn't stay the trip.

Tomorrow Regal Tramp drops back down to 1m4f again and that should be no concern to her at all. She has also been generously dropped 2lb for that effort and is now only 3lb above her win two starts back. She certainly won with a bit in hand in my eyes and I am convinced she is up to winning off this mark. I'm a big fan of Sam James and with his 5lb claim this 4 year old is now actually 2lb lower than when winning at Dundalk. Although the draw in stall 12 is a pain in the ass, she broke very well when winning and its not a huge concern as she can also come from off the pace. I see absolutely no reason why she can't go very close to winning this in what is a slightly lower grade than her latest effort.

With Berry now on APACHE DRUMS 6/1 for Charles O'Brien's 5 year old with first time cheekpieces I'm having a saver as he looks potentially very well handicapped.

rossom

5.10 GOWRAN PARK

LEGENDARY TIMES 5/1

Put Patrick Flynn's 6 year old the last day on the back of 6 month absence where he missed the break by about 10L before she ran on to finish just over 2L beaten in 3rd. I definitely think she would have won with a bit in hand had she broken on terms.. Although 12lb above her last winning mark(broke slowly that day and still won eased down at the course), she is only 1lb above her mark when finishing 2nd at Wexford back in August, where the winner won by 2L off a 9lb higher mark on their next start. Todays race represents a step back in trip which probably is the best but I still think she is well enough handicapped to certainly go very close off the same mark as her effort the last day.

5.40 GOWRAN PARK

ORAFINITIS 14/1 NAP

Been waiting for her to make her seasonal reappearance and your going to have to trust me on this one! Toppy may remember me banging on about her on chat on Fugees last year! I've followed her since her debut two years ago and I know that she is good enough to win this. Orafinitis made an extremely promising debut back in July 2010 when finishing only 5.25L beaten by the excellent Misty For Me. After this and for the rest of her 2 year old campaign she was desperately disappointing, which has unfortunately been a trend for a filly I think is much better than what she has shown. After an 8 month break, Orafinitis made her seasonal debut as a 3 year old at Gowran Park last May of 7f off a mark of 56 and finally fulfilled some of the promise I know she possesses when shedding her maiden tag to win by 1L under the guidance of the trainer's son. After getting squeezed up early on, she had to come wide around the field and I think she had more up her sleeve than her winning distance said. After this, trainer Desmond McDonogh said "She ran well on her debut last year but lost the plot afterwards and that surprised me. She's been going well at home and is a well-bred filly. It's lovely ground out there and it seemed to make all the difference"

I really expected her to kick on from that but again she disappointed. She ran one noteworthy race since then when a decent 4.25L beaten 5th after a 3 month break, the only time that Declan McDonogh has been on since, but that was on heavy ground which I don't think really suited. As a result of running pretty poorly on the AW, Orafinitis' handicap mark has plumetted to a mark of 52 and she is now 4lb below winning at the track 11 months ago. She seems to reserve her best form for when fresh as her 3 best runs came either on debut or on the back of breaks, with the last on ground too heavy. Tomorrow, Declan gets back on board and its a massive positive as she returns to the scene of her victory 11 months ago. She's stepped up to 1m which looked like it would suit on her victory last month and the good ground looks ideal as long as the rain stays away. The trainer's last victory came last year with a double on the day Orafintis' won but that isn't a concern to me as he was winless for a similar period prior to that. He has another runner Articilitis who I'll be backing in a double with Orafintis in the 6.40 (although I fancy 3 others more in the race) in the hope he can achieve a similar feat again. Although it may not seem an overly convincing argument, you're going to have to take my trust on her. I know this horse and a very similar pattern to last year has emerged. With the draw in stall 6 no issue, I'm going on large as long as the rain stays away.

MoscowFlyer

rossom wrote: »

2.35 FOLKESTONE

LIGHT BURST 7/1

This will be the first Hard Spun offspring of many I'll be putting up this season. Followed him stringently last year and he didn't disappoint, producing a 19.4% win and a 43.3% place rate from 31 runners last year and a ROI of 71%. Light Burst is a 3 year old from the Al Zarooni stable and I think the first and a very important thing to note is his rating of 63. Godolphin aren't going to be keeping a 63 rated horse unless they feel he is a lot better than his current mark so thats an obvious positive. In his 3 starts to date, Light Burst has pulled very hard and raced with an abundance of inexperience but he definitely showed some talent. On debut over 5f, he ran absolutely all over the shop but only was beaten 3L and last of 4 in the field. That said, the form of that race has worked out very nicely with the winner Sixx now rated 92, the 2nd Right Result now rated 89 and the 3rd Verse of Love rated 71. He couldn't even run in a straight line that day and it was a good performance to get as close as he did.

On his 2nd and 3rd starts it was a very similar story as he pulled very hard in the early stages of the race stepped up to 7f and he probably didn't last home in either effort. He did show a fair bit of potential both times and a mark of 63 certainly doesn't look beyond him. There's a strong chance Light Burst has grown in both stature and attitude between 2-3 and I am hoping his tendency to pull has been eradicated. Although he has to overcome a 6 month gap, connections excel at having their horses ready for seasonal reappearances so I am not concerned at all. Sylvestre De Sousa takes the ride as Light Burst gets in here with bottom weight. With the drop to 6f looking sure to suit, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he comes a very easy winner tomorrow.

Shocking conditions, adding it to my ATR tracker, looked to be travelling well.

rossom

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Shocking conditions, adding it to my ATR tracker, looked to be travelling well.

completely agree. travelled very nicely but the puddles killed him. he should win soon

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

Naked Cowboy in the same race is the one I like most tomorrow.

It's typical. Every so often there comes a horse that I really fancy at a nice price. This was one. One that I had no money to back it with.

Slattsy

UrbanSea wrote: »

UrbanSea wrote: »

Naked Cowboy in the same race is the one I like most tomorrow.

It's typical. Every so often there comes a horse that I really fancy at a nice price. This was one. One that I had no money to back it with.

Are you not on 70k a year like all the other Mods??

rossom

why the **** didn't Orafinitis's connections pull her. ground went to ****ing soft and she obviously had no hope. thats really pissed me off.

Imhof Tank

rossom wrote: »

why the **** didn't Orafinitis's connections pull her. ground went to ****ing soft and she obviously had no hope. thats really pissed me off.

Rossom - what will this change in the ground mean for Regal Tramp?

rossom

Imhof Tank wrote: »

Rossom - what will this change in the ground mean for Regal Tramp?

Probably not the best thing that could have happened.

Pinesky

Didn't like the shenanigans with Spirit River 5.25 Aintree PP had him 13/2 early while he was 14/1 on Betfair does a lap of the track while loose yet still runs and never got into race not easy being a punter

rossom

rossom wrote: »

‎6.40 GOWRAN PARK

REGAL TRAMP 8/1

If it wasn't for Fran Berry deserting Regal Tramp I'd be very, very confident and although Sam James is more than an able deputy and takes off an extremely valuable 5lb I'm going to have to take two from the race now. 2 starts back, Vincent Ward's 4 year old landed a pretty poor contest on the AW at Dundalk in impressive fashion to win by 1.5L over 12f. After breaking from a wide stall extremely well, Regal Tramp raced a bit closer to the pace than I envisaged but was given a lovely ride by Fran Berry to win. She travelled into the race beautifully and I don't think she was ever fully extended to win. It was just the sort of performance I was hoping to see and I'm convinced theres more to come. She's been raised only 5lb to a mark of 70 and I think the handicapper has been pretty lenient.

Prior to this, Regal Tramp put in a number of good performances off higher handicap marks, including a 0.5L defeat at the Galway Festival off a mark of 73 over trip as well as consecutive 2nds (although both 5L defeats) off marks of 75. It certainly demonstrates her ability to act on the turf and I have no doubt that she's better on this surface. On her last start, Regal Tramp went off favourite at Leopardstown only 5 days after her sole success to date when stepped up to 1m6f and sent off favourite. Again from a wide stall, she didn't break as well and as a result Fran Berry had her wide very wide the entire way around. Resultantly, she probably had to travel an extra couple of furlong and despite travelling into the race very well she didn't find much when asked which leads me to believe that she didn't stay the trip.

Tomorrow Regal Tramp drops back down to 1m4f again and that should be no concern to her at all. She has also been generously dropped 2lb for that effort and is now only 3lb above her win two starts back. She certainly won with a bit in hand in my eyes and I am convinced she is up to winning off this mark. I'm a big fan of Sam James and with his 5lb claim this 4 year old is now actually 2lb lower than when winning at Dundalk. Although the draw in stall 12 is a pain in the ass, she broke very well when winning and its not a huge concern as she can also come from off the pace. I see absolutely no reason why she can't go very close to winning this in what is a slightly lower grade than her latest effort.

With Berry now on APACHE DRUMS 6/1 for Charles O'Brien's 5 year old with first time cheekpieces I'm having a saver as he looks potentially very well handicapped.

Knew Fran Berry wasn't getting off for the laugh. 1st and 2nd though but of course I didn't do the forecast which paid 43 quid.

Pinesky

Many thanks Rossom keep up the good work