Fairyhouse - Tuesday 10th April

hucklebuck

Tomorrow looks a very decent card with plenty of horses looking to have very solid claims, I am looking at:

4:00 - Edeymi - Win
4:30 - Shop DJ - Win / Royal Choice - EW
5:00 - Ozeta - EW
5:30 - Bellvano - Win / Last Of The Leaders - EW
7:00 - Salsify - Win / Zemsky - EW
7:30 - House Rules - Win

Any thoughts?

The 7:00 looks intriguing with the last two winners of the Foxhunters locking horns, if Zemsky is 100% then it will be a big challenge for Salsify.

Morgans

Salsify is a huge price again. Huge. Cannot believe that he is still 2/1. Took some of the 9/4 earlier with Paddy Power. Two fears

1) too hard a race at cheltenham
2) pace

Travelled the best horse in the foxhunter and a strong pace would suit tomorrow. Colman Sweeney was telling after the race, saying that they feared the hill but he has to have exagerated waiting tactics but its hard as he is too quick a jumper and travels free. I think he has a stone in hand over these. Its funny, if chapoturgeon was over for this, he would be evens.

Anything odds against is value in my book.

The other bet for me tomorrow is Belle Brook ew in the second race. In form, fell last time when travelling well. Should lead most of the way and has Shop DJ to worry about. I think she had a tough race and was trained for the minute at cheltenham and is worth taking on.

Morgans

A horse worth following for next year is Ballynacree - runs in the first tomorrow. 7/1 is a good each way price. Conceivably McCoy could have ridden him. One of the most impressive maiden winners of the year, he ran a decent race behind Lord Windermere on his second start. Those behind, while not winning, have shown the form to be decent. I think he will end up being the best horse in the race, and at the prices its worth taking the chance that he can show it tomorrow.

hucklebuck

Sadly the big problem is how much effect has Cheltenham had on horses who run again here.

Worried about Shop DJ but if she came out of Chelt ok she should win snugly, although the other problem is will she jump after being put back over hurdles last time, always a worry of mine that they might be guessy after a run over the smaller obstacles. Royal Choice looks interesting at 8.4 on Betfair.

Salsify looked excellent in the Foxhunters alright, I don't think the race was too hard on him as he was swinging nicely and Colman said he was happy enough waiting for Chapoturgeon to make his move but he had to go get Oscar Delta.

The only reason I put Zemsky in as an option was ATR were predicting a price of 8/1 which would be far too big for me. I had a smash on Salsify and will have a cover bet EW on Zemsky at 4's or bigger, gonna sit for a bit as he will most likely be eased when the Salsify money comes, save for Tom Segal wrecking my best laid plans!!

Morgans

Zemsky available at 8s now.

On the Fringe and Oscar Delta both ahead of it in the betting. If he comes back in the same form as winning chelt 11, he is the main danger. Hopefully the market will let you know, as I know I'd be guessing otherwise.

rossom

‎3.50 Pontefract

Rosairlie 16/1

Quite like the look of Micky Hammond's 4 year old who makes her flat debut for this trainer after being previously with Harry Dunlop. In her time with Dunlop, she had some quite nice form including 5L behind 97 rated Sadlers Risk and St Leger 3rd Sea Moon on her 2nd start over what would turn out to be an inadequate 1m. She stayed on nicely from the back and although she isn't going to be as good as that pair it was still a good performance. She's been pretty disappointing since then but did finish an unlucky neck 2nd off a mark of 58 at Wolves over 14f and it demonstrated she still kept some of her talent. After moving to Hammond in February, she has had 3 starts in hurdles which culminated in a good win after being well backed into favouritism. Fit from these exerts, she's back on the flat racing off a mark of 62 and is stepped up to 2m2f for the first time in her career. Although I have a small concern about her staying the trip, she shaped as if longer would suit on her 14f 2nd and I am willing to believe that she will stay out the extra distance. With Tom Eaves taking the ride and Micky Hammond clearly having her in fine order, if she translates her hurdles form to the flat then she could have a very decent chance of landing this race at nice odds.
‎

5.25 Pontefract

Thunderstruck 16/1

I think 16/1 massively overstates the price of Thunderstruck's chances and if he's able to capitalise on his significantly lower turf mark then I think he could be extremely hard to beat. Scott Dixon's 7 year old has been heavily tried already on the AW this campaign but has performed pretty well. Back in January he landed a Class 4 handicap off a mark of 81 and followed that up with a 0.75L beaten 3rd off a mark of 85 in a similar event. Furthermore, he comes here race fit while a lot of his rivals will be making seasonal reappearances which will definitely be to his advantage.

Although he's probably not as good on the turf, he did post an excellent 2L beaten 2nd off a mark of 82 at Doncaster back in 2010 and he's only had 4 races on turf since so I wouldn't completely class him as inferior on the turf. He races here off a mark of 68 and if translating his AW form to turf he could be absolutely thrown in. Furthermore, if he's 10lb inferior on the turf then he is still well in. Although his form at Pontefract is a bit disconcerting as he was well beaten both times, after watching the video he jumped badly and for a horse that needs to be prominent I'm willing to ignore that effort. Breaking well tomorrow will be critical to his chances and he's well enough drawn in Stall 6 to achieve this. This represents Dixon's only runner at the track and I think it is very telling that regular jockey Ian Mongan comes here for one ride. Although not one to go nuts with, I certainly think he's incredibly overpriced and am confident of a very big run from my old friend.

I've also backed Cothrom Na Feinne 33/1 in the 5.00 Fairyhouse but with the ground getting possibly on the soft side I'm not going to do a write up. I'm 100% sure he's up to defying his mark of 117 and I think the return to a right handed track will suit. He's only 9lb above his last winning mark which was an eased down 6L victory back in 2010 (missed about 18 months with injury) with the form of that race working out well. Desmond McDonogh's 7 year old showed he still retains a lot of his talent with a very good 4L 4th at Leopardstown two starts back and he's definitely going to pop up and land a decent race soon off a mark like this. Any sunshine tomorrow will definitely help his chances.

I know I've put up two for Pontefract as well but didn't want to start another thread

cruais

Did a little accum €2 ew for tomorrow.... Potential returns €2188.48

16.00 edeymi
16.30 shop dj
17.00 catleen
17.30 bellvano
19.00 salsify

Now if only I win... Godsend!

hucklebuck

Morgans wrote: »

Zemsky available at 8s now.

On the Fringe and Oscar Delta both ahead of it in the betting. If he comes back in the same form as winning chelt 11, he is the main danger. Hopefully the market will let you know, as I know I'd be guessing otherwise.

Cheers Morgans, took Zemsky at 8 & BOG. For me if Baby Run stayed up Zemsky had the beating of him, I would have him 2nd fav.

rossom

25s and 22s available about Rosairlie and Thunderstruck have meant I've gone in again. Insane prices!

Morgans

Morgans wrote: »

A horse worth following for next year is Ballynacree - runs in the first tomorrow. 7/1 is a good each way price. Conceivably McCoy could have ridden him. One of the most impressive maiden winners of the year, he ran a decent race behind Lord Windermere on his second start. Those behind, while not winning, have shown the form to be decent. I think he will end up being the best horse in the race, and at the prices its worth taking the chance that he can show it tomorrow.

7/2 now. McManus other horse taken out. Not certain if McCoy will switch. The each way price is gone now though. Just as long as he finishes in the three, i'm ok.

Morgans

5/2 favourite now. Will be happy for him to be in the first 3, but I happy there is such support for him, and that Sportsmaster was taken out.

Local_Chap

Would someone be able to post up the results of the first 3 races when they are over if they can,cant watch them in work!

Local_Chap

Local_Chap wrote: »

Would someone be able to post up the results of the first 3 races when they are over if they can,cant watch them in work!

Never mind,i got the result from the Irish Racing website

1st. Ballynacree
2nd. Gorgeous Sixty
3rd. Cops and Robbers

Well done Morgans!!

MoscowFlyer

Morgans wrote: »

A horse worth following for next year is Ballynacree - runs in the first tomorrow. 7/1 is a good each way price. Conceivably McCoy could have ridden him. One of the most impressive maiden winners of the year, he ran a decent race behind Lord Windermere on his second start. Those behind, while not winning, have shown the form to be decent. I think he will end up being the best horse in the race, and at the prices its worth taking the chance that he can show it tomorrow.

Lovely!

Cheeky_gal

Brilliant. Won a bit on Ballynacree there thanks to Morgans!
What do people think for the next race?

ft9

Shop DJ 6/4 is too short for me in the next, my bet would be Belle Brook at 5/1 if I was having a bet. Shop DJ the more likely winner but just too short

ft9

ft9 wrote: »

Shop DJ 6/4 is too short for me in the next, my bet would be Belle Brook at 5/1 if I was having a bet. Shop DJ the more likely winner but just too short

I've changed my mind on the next and decided to have a bet.

Odonimee 6/1 ew

rossom

gone in again at 50s for Cothrom Na Feinne as he's miles too big. could run a shocker but worth chancing at what is an insane price

rossom

They're fiddling with Cothrom Na Feinne. He's a front runner who was dropped out last.

shy-tall-knight

rossom wrote: »

They're fiddling with Cothrom Na Feinne. He's a front runner who was dropped out last.

Have to agree with that assessment. Needs good ground so really didn't have a chance today, a horse with definite ability but ran today to drop a pound or two in the handicap. Will be of a lot more interest over the summer in one of the big handicaps on good ground.

rossom

shy-tall-knight wrote: »

Have to agree with that assessment. Needs good ground so really didn't have a chance today, a horse with definite ability but ran today to drop a pound or two in the handicap. Will be of a lot more interest over the summer in one of the big handicaps on good ground.

I did fear the ground going against him but he's definitely a talented horse. Will be interesting to see if he goes to Punchestown and gets very good ground. I'll be lumping on when that happens

hucklebuck

On The Fringe vying for favouritism, hope Salsify holds at 5/2 or a big bigger:P

Hulk Hands

Salsify is too big at 5/2 even with the softer ground. The one worry is that the Cheltenham horses haven't exactly been firing. I'm still fairly confident though

Hulk Hands

100/30? I'm starting to worry that somethings wrong. Unreal value if not

Morgans

Think the memory of how Salsify got stuck in the mud in Thurles is making Salsify's price. The ground would appear to have gone against him, but I think he is still the best horse in the field and have gone in again at 7/2.

Hulk Hands

Yeah, it's good to soft too, not exactly muck. We'll see sure

Morgans

Percentage call is that the ground was to blame. Ive no doubt that Salsify is the most talented horse in the race, and On the Fringe is one to avoid in the future. But I dont think Salsify travelled with the same fizz as he did at cheltenham and it probably left its mark.

hucklebuck

What a load of pox, he seemed to be running in snatches.

To compound a shocking day I had a small bet on Zemsky 8/1 and On The Fringe at 7/2, gutted to have all three beaten by a horse that looked like he gave his all in Cheltenham, albeit over a shorter trip.:mad:

Hulk Hands

I know the exaggerated waiting tactics worked last time, but that was with a ridiculous early pace. Do ye think he was left a little too far behind, perhaps leading the jock to be over aggressive at the second last, as he didn't pick up as well on the ground. I know that's probably being harsh, most likely reason is that he was over cooked obv

Morgans

Nah. Got there in plenty of time and don't think he was exactly done with the way the front two finished, but he wasn't fighting for his head throughout today, wasn't winging his fences and it was just his class that got him into the position he got into.

hucklebuck

Do you think it was snatches or Colman was dropping him out and nudging him along?

It looked like he had no idea where the best ground, first circuit he was on the inside and second circuit he was on the outside a fair bit. I don't think he needed to be as animated as he was when the horse tipped up.

Real shame, if he stayed up he would have been involved imo.

Still reeling over such a p!ss poor performance by me.

Anyone else think of backing horses that did not run in Cheltenham for Aintree and Punchestown. Might start with Master Of The Hall .....

Morgans

Yeah. I think that he was looking for the best ground showed that the horse wasnt travelling as well as normal. If he was to have won today, it would have been despite the ground, despite the hard race at cheltenham etc. The jockey with a magic ride might have made the difference, but there was little or nothing anyone could have done better. On the day, he wasnt the best horse.

hucklebuck

Ah yeah not blaming the jockey, he was searching for the best ground and not sure anyone would have stayed on he took off very, very late.

It might have been different if he did not panic but thats racing.