Over rounds in the Nationals

Nulty

Its common knowledge among racing fans and punters the the Grand Nationals over round is amazingly big. I've looked at a few from the past 5 years for the Irish and Aintree Nationals.

IGN
'07 140%
'08 137%
'09 142%
'10 146%
'11 148%

Aintree
'07 152%
'08 147%
'09 146%
'10 155%
'11 155%

Thankfully we have access to many different bookmakers at the touch of a button with the internet. The Irish National will round to about the low 140s at least but right now, among all the bookmakers listed on ATRs cards at least, the best prices over round is 129% This is as good as it gets I'm afraid. It didn't used to be this bad as far as I can see.

Of course most people having a bet won't give a toss.

***I should add the extra place concessions many bookmakers give these days too

Colonel Sanders

A particular pet hate of mine, on course over rounds & SPs. Needless to say worst case scenarios are for nationals.

Comply or die supposedly landed a big gamble in 08 despite his price barely budging on Betfair & while Don't Push It was well backed in 2010 his Betfair SP was 6-7 points bigger than his industry SP

ArmaniJeanss

I'd suspect if you analyzed it into 'overround per runner' that the Aintree Race is similar punting value to the Fairyhouse race, and both are comparable to most of the 25/30 runners handicaps which take place throughout the year.

'Overround per runner' is surely a better way of measuring the value of a betting heat than just the bare overround figure. i.e. If a tennis/snooker/darts market was 130% it would be a disastrous market for the punter, yet if looked at in the terms of your OP (just looking at the overround without taking the number of runners into account) it would appear to be a good market.

finbarrk

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

A particular pet hate of mine, on course over rounds & SPs. Needless to say worst case scenarios are for nationals.

Comply or die supposedly landed a big gamble in 08 despite his price barely budging on Betfair & while Don't Push It was well backed in 2010 his Betfair SP was 6-7 points bigger than his industry SP

Because that was a 'win only' price on BF. The on course layers give EW. That makes a big difference in a big handicap.

Nulty

Your right there Armani & finbarrk

Betfair over round is 107.2% on the Irish national at the moment.

Like I said, in recent years bookies have been offering 5 or 6 places in the National so the over round is bound to be higher. Also the each way nature of the markets make the over round even higher. I hadn't considered the 'overround per runner' before but it makes perfect sense.

Colonel Sanders

Never been to Aintree but my experience of UK race courses (mainly Cheltenham & Sandown) would suggest on course layers bet 1/5 the odds 1,2,3,4 in the national. The offers might be available off course (eg 6 places BOG etc) but it us very rare you get them on course apart from one or 2 firms.

With so much mug money around national day I can't imagine on course layers would be tripping over each other to offer punters real value

One of the reasons I always suspect that Grand National SPs are so poor is off course firms manipulating the market

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Never been to Aintree but my experience of UK race courses (mainly Cheltenham & Sandown) would suggest on course layers bet 1/5 the odds 1,2,3,4 in the national. The offers might be available off course (eg 6 places BOG etc) but it us very rare you get them on course apart from one or 2 firms.

With so much mug money around national day I can't imagine on course layers would be tripping over each other to offer punters real value

One of the reasons I always suspect that Grand National SPs are so poor is off course firms manipulating the market

Its 1/4 the odds on 12+ runner handicaps as standard isn't it.

Also your right, I think, off course firms have stalls at the track too which they can use to influence the SP to a certain degree. As far as I can see its necessary for large over rounds when theres a big field with each way available.

Colonel Sanders

Off course bookies are "duty bound" to offer 1/4 but not so on course (or if they are they simply ignore the obligation). In non handicaps some bookies bet 1/6 the odds each way

John McCririck is often complaining about the non uniformity of each way terms offered by on course bookies.

Hulk Hands

It sounds simple, but just use the exchanges when it starts to bet to 100% coming up to the race. The win odds will obviously be better, but the place odds will probably be better too

finbarrk

How do you use the exchanges when you are in the middle of a betting ring with a €50 in your hand?

the groutch

I think the fact that 90% of offcourse bookies guarantee early/board prices has alot to do with it too.

Hulk Hands

finbarrk wrote: »

How do you use the exchanges when you are in the middle of a betting ring with a €50 in your hand?

call them

hucklebuck

finbarrk wrote: »

How do you use the exchanges when you are in the middle of a betting ring with a €50 in your hand?

I got burned at Cheltenham, could not get in to my online account, not sure if they block data at courses.

finbarrk

Hulk Hands wrote: »

call them

What? Call them as in shout at them and throw the €50 at them? I think the couch is the place for lots of lads here!

byronbay2

Every year my friends and I laugh at the 2 plonkers (Parrott and Wilshire) on the Beeb telling us about these "huge gambles" in the half-hour before the National: "Ladbrokes will have to shut up shop if this one wins, Gary" etc. Meanwhile, the bookies are busy shortening each of the top 10 in the betting and lengthening nothing but the complete rags.
You MUST back your National fancy at the best morning price because it will DEFINITELY be shorter at board price/SP.

hucklebuck

finbarrk wrote: »

What? Call them as in shout at them and throw the €50 at them?

I think he means using Alexander Graham Bells invention

Nulty

Current Overround is 139%

Just went 145.68%

Colonel Sanders

Timeform reports industry over round was 152% :eek:

The free website shows the Betfair SP v Industry

Seabass started 8/1 yet was almost 14/1 on Betfair....

UrbanSea

There was betting on this on BF today

Colonel Sanders

Dear god, some of the SPs are horrific

Sunnyhillboy 17 v 26 on Betfair

Hello Bud 34 v 127 on Betfair

Ballabriggs 13 v 20 on Betfair

Alfa Beat 51 v 151 on Betfair

Deep Purple 26 v 64 on Betfair

The list goes on an on......

bit of a bogey

byronbay2 wrote: »

You MUST back your National fancy at the best morning price because it will DEFINITELY be shorter at board price/SP.

Very Valid point!

Hulk Hands

Betfair shouldn't be coming out of this with any credit either. The in-running service was a joke. A message was coming up saying bets were unable to be placed due to technical difficulties yet 30 seconds later they would be there in your bets, whereas some backed wouldn't appear at all. It also giving no chance to cancel unmatched ones or trade out. It'll be a joke if they don't void all in running bets

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Dear god, some of the SPs are horrific

Sunnyhillboy 17 v 26 on Betfair

Hello Bud 34 v 127 on Betfair

Ballabriggs 13 v 20 on Betfair

Alfa Beat 51 v 151 on Betfair

Deep Purple 26 v 64 on Betfair

The list goes on an on......

Your not taking into consideration eachway there

hucklebuck

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Betfair shouldn't be coming out of this with any credit either. The in-running service was a joke. A message was coming up saying bets were unable to be placed due to technical difficulties yet 30 seconds later they would be there in your bets, whereas some backed wouldn't appear at all. It also giving no chance to cancel unmatched ones or trade out. It'll be a joke if they don't void all in running bets

I am still amazed people are using Betfair, you never hear any problems with Betdaq's software or the system going down.

I can't believe they are allowed advertise better than industry SP, there is no mention of their 5% slice or the fee they charge when you try withdraw your winnings.

Colonel Sanders

Betfair SP's quoted via the Timeform site (and most of if not all of their ads) deduct the max of 5% commission.

Of course if you're on less than 5% then you beat the figures quoted