50 bet challenge

nua domhan

Gonna try one of these on the exchanges and record my progress on here.

Rules

1. Starting bank £10
2. All in each time
3. Only back odds at 1.10(1/9) or less (unless a lot of knowledge about the sport)
4. If using the exchange to bet on changing prices, always cash out green between 5-10% of original stake (dont get greedy!)
5. No betting when drunk
6. No betting for the sake of betting.
7. No betting on Soccer Under goal markets in last 5 mins if only one goal is needed to ruin bet.
8. Research your market!!!
9. Be disciplined! - A small profit is better than any loss.

So after doing a quick excel spreadsheet the possible totals (after taking off 5% commission each time) are:

50 bets at 1.05 = 101.79 :rolleyes:

50 bets at 1.10 = 934.77 :eek:

Hopefully will be somewhere in between these, also at the start to speed up the process after cashing out mid bets, the original stake can go back in on another bet increasing volume (at the expense of possible returns).

nua domhan

Bet 1:

£10.63 on Leinster to win vs Cardiff Blues @1.10

(the 63p was left in the account from previous losses )

Gonna let this run instead of cashing out during the game. I think Leinster's price will drift out from the start but don't think there is any way they'll loose this match.

nua domhan

Bank = £11.64

Bet 2

Very tempted to back Barcelona (currently 1 nil down) to win against Zaragota - about evens. 2nd place vs 18th, though sticking with the rules I decided to back over 1.5 goals at 1.07

Which just came through as I was writing this!

11.64 x 1.08 = 12.57

Leeg17

Best of luck with this, statistically it's not worth it but hey prove them wrong

nua domhan

And now Barca have just scored another! :rolleyes:

nua domhan

Bet 3

Bank = £12.52

Barcelona to win against Zaragota (2-1 up, Z just had man sent off) @ 1.04

nua domhan

Leeg17 wrote: »

Best of luck with this, statistically it's not worth it but hey prove them wrong

Yeah i realise, backing 1.10 or so means that in 50 bets, 5 should let me down statistically? Is that right?

If the bank gets any way big I might poo my pants and split it!

nua domhan

Barca go on to win 4-1 :eek:

Bank now £12.99 (after commission)

Bet 4

I'm tempted to back another goal in the Lazio against Napoli game (over 2.5), as i reckon Lazio at home should come back and beat them.

Decided though to go for over 0.5 goals in the Betis - Villareal game.

Villarreal have scored in all nine of their top-flight visits to Betis and Betis have scored in every one of their last 6 home games (total 8).

So, bet 4 = Over 0.5 goals

12.99 @ 1.09

nua domhan

Bet 4 up, ends up 4 goals in the Betis game. Lazio go on to beat Napoli 3-1 after being 1-1 at half time as predicted, but it's all about slow and steady!

Bank Now = £14.10

Was tempted to bet on some of the south american soccer games when I came home last night but that would have been breaking rules 5 & 6.

Though my next bet will kinda be breaking rule 3.

There's a couple of bets that look attractive this morning. Ulster +18.5 against Munster @1.16 is pretty ridiculous I think. Although i'm fairly sure that Munster will win this game, i don't think it will be too easy for them and it will be fairly close coming into the last 20 mins, probably within a try or two. After all, Ulster managed to go to Claremont and get a losing bonus point this year - something that Munster or Leinster would have been more than happy to get.

The other bet is Tyrone to beat Monaghan @1.34 (down from 1.44 yesterday when i checked:(). Being from Tyrone I mightn't be as analytical as should be about this game. Tyrone are going for 12 wins in a row (League and Mckenna cup) and though the longer this run goes on the less likely they are to keep it - I don't think today will be the day they loose. A home game, with young players trying to impress before the championship, Owen Mulligan and Steven O' Neill back, Tyrone fitness levels through the roof? The only thing that worries me is that Tyrone have already secured promotion and Monaghan are fighting relegation. Still, think Tyrone should win out in the end.

These bets aren't going in play so i can't cash out Ulster +18.5 half way though in time for the Tyrone game (I don't think the market is that liquid anyway) so i've decided to split the bank, therefore;

Bet 5:

Tyrone to beat monaghan £10 @1.34

and

Ulster +18.5 against Munster £4.10 @1.16

nua domhan

Both bets up - Ulster win by 6 points (didn't think they'd win but would definitely be close) and Tyrone beat Monaghan easily by 10 points.:D

Bank now £17.95

i think there'll be a goal in the Man City & Arsenal match though the price is a bit too big and with 30mins left in the game not much point risking it.

On the other hand Bilbao and Sevilla has just started. Athletic and Sevilla have drawn none of their last 10 league matches at San Mames and their last 3 head to head games produced an average 4 goals per game.

So

Bet 6:

£17.95 on Bilbao vs Sevilla over 0.5 goals @1.07

nua domhan

Phew, just the one goal in that game but it was enough.

Bank = £19.15

I kinda wanna put a bet on the masters to mix it up a bit but the odds aren't really right at the minute. I'll prob back Mickleson to have a top 5 finish if he doesn't blow the front 9.

So for the time being it's back to the football and a nice fixture between PSG and Marseille.

PSG have scored 14 in their last 6 home games and Marseille have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 6 away, so we should get a few goals.

Bet 7:

£19.15 on PSG & Marseille over 0.5 goals @1.07.

nua domhan

early enough Goal,

Bank = £20.42

Next up, Real Madrid at home to Valencia. In 5 of Real's last 6 games at home they've scored at least 4 goals, Valencia have scored in every one of their last 6 away games. Nuff said!

There's no value in over 0.5 goals (1.02) and this game should be a goal fest with Real Madrids recent form. So i'm gonna go for over 1.5 goals.

Bet 8:

£20.42 on Real Madrid & Valencia over 1.5 goals @1.12

ConorBFC3

nua domhan wrote: »

Bet 8:

£20.42 on Real Madrid & Valencia over 1.5 goals @1.12

The one time Madrid have a low-scoring game at home! Unlucky.

Keep at it though. It's a bit of fun if nothing else. I started with €10 yesterday evening, got it up to €34 in around ten bets and then lost it on something stupid @1.30 last night.

robertowjr

Was doing something similar, started today with €8, got it up to €15 and then lost on Madrid game, waited until half time and then I got Over 0.5 goals @ 1.11.

very unlucky!

nua domhan

nua domhan wrote: »

early enough Goal,

Bank = £20.42

Next up, Real Madrid at home to Valencia. In 5 of Real's last 6 games at home they've scored at least 4 goals, Valencia have scored in every one of their last 6 away games. Nuff said!

There's no value in over 0.5 goals (1.02) and this game should be a goal fest with Real Madrids recent form. So i'm gonna go for over 1.5 goals.

Bet 8:

£20.42 on Real Madrid & Valencia over 1.5 goals @1.12

BUSTED!! Real Madrid Valencia nil all :eek:

Ah well, it was a bit of craic and actually good to log what i was winning/ losing. I'm gonna start again, but this time i might add another rule that for any given period, especially in soccer, it is more likely that the result will stay as it is than change.

nua domhan

Bank = £10

So given the fact that a nil all draw busted me the last time, i'm going with the theory that in a short period of time, no goals being scored is more probable than 1 being scored and definitely 2 being scored! I'll then trade out as the price changes - hopefully before the goals start flying in.

There's plenty of premier league on today but after a bit of research i've picked two teams with a pretty low scoring average in the last 6 games (Villa 1 goal per home game, Stoke 0.66 goals per away game). - Cue a hat-trick from crouch!:p

Bet 1:

Villa v Stoke Under 3.5 goals £10 @1.27 - to be traded out in play around 1.20 or so.

nua domhan

Even though the game ended up under the 3.5 goals at 1-1, I traded out by laying at £10 @1.17 before Villa scored. So profit for the bet was 10% or £1 with the original stake safe.

Bank = £10.95

Next game up is Fulham v Chelsea. Don't think this will be a goal fest either so at half time with chelsea 1 nil up I bet under 4.5 goals to run to the finish.


Bet 2.

Fulham v Chelsea Under 4.5 goals £10.95 @1.06 (placed at half time).

nua domhan

Bank £11.57

Breaking rule 3 and 6 I decide to bet on Racing Club vs San Lorenzo. These guys have had 2 nil all draws in their last 3 meetings but after watching the first 30 minutes its a very very open game. Racing have just scored and San Lorenzo have scored in every one of their last 6 away games so i reckon there'll be at least one more goal in the game.

Bet 3:

Racing Club & San Lorenzo Over 1.5 goals (currently 1-0) £11.57 @1.31