April 9th onward, remaining cool/cold and unsettled, frost

darkman2

Hi all,


The weather looks set cold and increasingly unsettled from Monday on with showers or longer spells of rain at times. Though good dry clear spells too especially inland. All models agree on a varying north or northeasterly airflow next week that will mean the weather remaining on the cold side though not particularly cold during daylight hours with temperatures typically ranging 7 - 9c most days next week. Temperatures at night 1 or 2c below freezing away from North facing coasts will mean frost under clear skies. And that's the way it should be till next weekend with little variation on that theme each day. Rinse/repeat. Next Friday little change:



Most of the week cold upper air will struggle to make it this far south from the north despite the consistent northerly flow given the time of year so little or no risk of wintry showers (at least for a good portion of the week). That may change by next weekend at which stage wintry weather could return but that's too far out to be confident about atm.

No sign at all of milder weather and definitely no repeat of the warm conditions recently for some time to come.

You could say this is the winter now that we did not have this year;) Enjoy, bbl.

Wild Bill

Wintry weather in mid April? :mad:

I'm pointing my death-ray northwards; that cold air is toast.

darkman2

Most of the coming week looks grand - good sunshine with a few showers, the odd longer period of rain and frosty nights. By next weekend the nights could be very cold with current indications suggesting -4 or -5c in some places away from windward coasts. And colder air could be making incursions at that stage which could turn the showers wintry even during daylight hours. That's a long way out though. We could be heading for a below average April overall temperature wise. Predicted night time temperature next Saturday.

Gonzo

After a warm autumn and winter, hopefully a cold April and cool May will eventually lead to a warm June, July and August.

DOCARCH

Gonzo wrote: »

After a warm autumn and winter, hopefully a cold April and cool May will eventually lead to a warm June, July and August.

Agreed - just what I have been thinking.

It's a long time since we've had a decent 'April shower' season. 2008 was the last year, as far as I can remember, that we had a good run of April showers.

K_1

Long time too since we had a month that was well below average - August if I remember right. Every month since seems to have been milder than it should be!

dfbemt

This afternoons rain is very welcome. Garden is like cement.

No doubt the farmers will be happy although the cold nights could be damaging for tender crops

DOCARCH

Rain here on the southside didn't even wet the ground.

snaps

yes strange. We hardly had any rain at all.

Wild Bill

DOCARCH wrote: »

Rain here on the southside didn't even wet the ground.

What rain?

darkman2

Most likely location for hail and sleet is the east and north next weekend. Otherwise no change to the forecast in the OP. Exceptionally cold nights for the time of year are possible later in the week. Be interesting to see how low recorded temperatures might get inland.

Wild Bill

Aaaaagh :eek:

It rained last night. Between 3.30 and 5.30 we got a deluginal 4.4mm.

Went out dancin' and singin' while swingin' around some streetlamps - it was the novelty inspired me - not the half bottle of whiskey consumed watching the Masters. :cool:

*checks for any embarrassing posts on boards from circa 4am*

nacho libre

What a difference a year makes. Now the pv has broken up the cold air has to spill somewhere. It's just too bad this is all coming two months too late

Given the stratosphere normally warms up at this time of year, is late March- early April traditionally the best month of the year for Northerly?

dfbemt

Really good downpour this afternoon in Drogheda.

Went to see some friends and brought the kids to see Oliver Plunketts head. When we came out of the church it was bucketing down, the kind of rain that has you soaked by the time you ran the 40 metres to the car.

Then when we got home, 25kms away, the ground was bone dry

km79

Is this our winter ? 

Birdnuts

km79 wrote: »

Is this our winter ? 

Yep - I predicted in another thread that we would see more frost and snow in April then the damp squid that was winter proper - I also laid 100 euros with the Da that this would happen back in late Feb.:D

K_1

km79 wrote: »

Is this our winter ? 

Knowing our luck, this is winter 2012/2013. Should last til November when summer starts again. Gone very southern hemisphere in Ireland the last while!

Pangea

Just had a heavy shower of sleet mixed with wet snow. Some flakes in the mix.

Harps

Heavy hail showers here, might be some snow in the mix but I've been too lazy to get up and check, just going by the sound of the hail! Some nice heavy showers though and the sky signal keeps going

darkman2

Hi all,


I think that things will get far colder at night. 3 or 4c it is tonight. Temperatures will be a good 6 or 7c below that later in the week so.

Other then that sleet or snow showers are increasingly possible as the week goes on.

Wild Bill

darkman2 wrote: »

I's important to check on maybe old relatives or neighbours to make sure they are ok or others who might struggle with heat.

I can only hope the youngsters are checking on me!

Got my microwaved bean bags, hot water bottles, long johns, ear muffs and arctic duvets - but how do I keep the laptop from overheating in here?

admiralofthefleet

any sign of warm weather on the way?

M.T. Cranium

There are no signs of warmth in any of the global model runs as far as they go, which for the GFS is 16 days. The one good thing about this blocking episode is that it may be a sign of a warmer than average summer. From where we are now, the most plausible long-range outcome would be a wet May and some interval of warm/dry in June and/or July. This is what I am planning to use as the basis for a summer long-range forecast that I plan to issue later this month.

pauldry

Well MT I agree. I think this Summer will be very warm. Temperatures in the 20s a lot of days and possibly the magic 30 on one or two occasions. I can only be wrong but I feel it in my cuticles.

Joe Public

I'd like to see some weather archives on April showing average temp, precipitation and sunshine maybe going back the last 30 years. Then for each year a summary on summer weather so we can get an idea how a good or bad April can or cannot foretell the Summer.

Something simple like the below may be useful:-

Year April Summer
1980 good bad
1981 good bad
1982 bad good
.
.
.
I only made up the good/bad entries for the example.
I'm too lazy to do the research but it would be nice if someone already has this info.

M.T. Cranium

I don't approach it as a general rule where a certain kind of April would signal a warm summer. Looking more at the evolution of the blocking (which was predicted, see NW seasonal forecasts) and how that may unfold in May, June and July. April 2009 was also rather chilly but the evolution followed a different path. This current blocking has a strong retrograde component meaning it should gradually disappear into the circulation further west, which in turn would pull warmer patterns over Europe further west by the end of May or early June.

Wild Bill

Joe Public wrote: »

Year April Summer
1980 good bad
1981 good bad
1982 bad good
.
.
.
I only made up the good/bad entries for the example.
I'm too lazy to do the research but it would be nice if someone already has this info.

I did some quick research for you here. I have concluded that the odds of a good summer after a bad April are 1 in 2.

The odds of a bad summer after a bad April, surprisingly enough, are also 1 in 2.

(This result was obtained using a system that categorized all Aprils and all summers as either good or bad)

Birdnuts

Wild Bill wrote: »

I did some quick research for you here. I have concluded that the odds of a good summer after a bad April are 1 in 2.

The odds of a bad summer after a bad April, surprisingly enough, are also 1 in 2.

(This result was obtained using a system that categorized all Aprils and all summers as either good or bad)

Thats good cos all the models are pointing towards a right stinker of an April:D;)

Nabber

Birdnuts wrote: »

Thats good cos all the models are pointing towards a right stinker of an April:D;)

April is looking al lot like January. Shame we can't get the weather systems we had in December transfered now.

Harps

Next week is looking below average and unsettled again, no agreement on how this low develops yet but Monday onwards could be interesting

nacho libre

Hopefully we'll have conditions similar to April 1981 to see out this April:D

Wild Bill

nacho libre wrote: »

Hopefully we'll have conditions similar to April 1981 to see out this April:D

*searching memory bank............no match found*

Redsunset

Brief flurry perhaps,

hoody

Hail shower in Bundoran left fields, cars, and pretty much everything else covered in white at about 6pm this evening

Pangea

Another frosty night here, amazing how there was feck all frost all winter but loads in March and April.

nacho libre

redsunset wrote: »

Brief flurry perhaps,

It caused a foot and a half snow in Derbyshire, according to Philip Eden!

Elmer Blooker

This April snowstorm gave an even heavier fall than 1947 or 1963 in parts of Southern England..... AND in the last week of April too!

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-1908-snowstorm.htm

Wild Bill

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

This April snowstorm gave an even heavier fall than 1947 or 1963 in parts of Southern England..... AND in the last week of April too!

But here "brief flurry perhaps" just about describes it? :cool: