Odds movements - betting smart

psiaii

Hi all.

I'll give from time to time picks and betting advices where decision will be made upon odds and lines movements before the starting match time.

psiaii

Uniao Leiria vs Gil Vicente (Portuguese football)
Starting time: 16:00 GMT 2012-04-06
Pick: Gil Vicente +0.0 @ 1.98
Stake: 2 units (from 10)

Reason: the odds from Gil Vicente was dropping high in 1 hour from 3.24 to 2.50

psiaii

Score: 0-0
TIE

shangri la

Do you ever think that there is no longer value at the price after it drops enough for you to notice?

psiaii

@ shangri la

You are right. But in this case I took AH not moneyline. A high dropping shows me where the market is moved by those who bet big, or some valuable information is heard by bookmaker.

shangri la

Or a relatively amount of money is bet on the favourites and it just so happens to be more than the underdog and the books overcompensate to keep the outcome about 95% payout.

long story short its not a good plan.

odds on man u usually drop on match day regardless how short they open because they are a mug acc team...

MrJoeSoap

psiaii wrote: »

@ shangri la

You are right. But in this case I took AH not moneyline. A high dropping shows me where the market is moved by those who bet big, or some valuable information is heard by bookmaker.

Regardless, you are betting on something that (I assume) you have little or no knowledge of other than the fact that the price is changing. That could be for any multitude of reasons and the fact that you are jumping onto the price changes after they happen mean that you have more than likely lost the value involved.

Out of interest, are you betting on exchanges or with a bookmaker, there's a world of difference between the two when it comes to price changes.

psiaii

Volleyball » Italy S A1 W
2012-04-09 18:30 GMT
Yamamay Busto Arsizio vs MC-Carnaghi Villa Cortese

Pick: MC-Carnaghi Villa Cortese +1.5 @ 1.78
Stake: 1 unit from 10

shangri la

psiaii wrote: »

Volleyball » Italy S A1 W 2012-04-09 18:30 GMT Yamamay Busto Arsizio vs MC-Carnaghi Villa Cortese Pick: MC-Carnaghi Villa Cortese +1.5 @ 1.78 Stake: 1 unit from 10

any joy?

psiaii

Yamamay Busto Arsizio vs MC-Carnaghi Villa Cortese
Score: 2-3 (27:25, 23:25, 17:25, 25:20, 7:15)

WON
Profit: +0.78 units

psiaii

Soccer » Austria Cup
2012-04-11 15:59 GMT
Austria Lustenau vs Austria Wien

Pick: Austria Lustenau +0.5 @ 1.83
Stake: 1 unit from 10

psiaii

Austria Lustenau vs Austria Wien
Score 1-2
LOST
Profit: -1.0 unit

psiaii

El Clasico

Soccer » La Liga
2012-04-21 18:00 GMT
Barcelona vs. Real Madrid

Real Madrid +1.0 @ 1.93

psiaii

Barcelona - Real Madrid
Score: 1-2
Real Madrid +1.0 @ 1.93 WON

psiaii

Euro-League
Soccer » UEFA Cup
2012-05-09 18:45 GMT

Atletico Madrid vs. Athletic Bilbao (played on neutral arena in Bucharest - ROM)

The graph odds are too symmetric and I'll go for a draw in regular time.
(An over 2.5 goals could be an option too).

With few hours before starting time, the odds movement were:

psiaii

Final score 3-0. (Atletico Madrid - Atletic Bilbao)
The over 2.5 was a good choice.

Falcao will be bought by some bigger and stronger team in the near future.