NFL final games.

Hammer Archer

Thought it might be interesting to get the chat for the final weekend's (apart from division 4) games going. Some interesting ties and permutations in all 4 divisions.

NFL Division 1
Cork v Dublin, Pairc Ui Chaoimh, 2.30pm
Donegal v Armagh, Ballybofey, 2.30pm
Kerry v Mayo, Austin Stack Park, 2.30pm
Laois v Down, Portlaoise, 2.30pm

Kerry are through to the semi finals in first place no matter what. Technically, all the other teams are still in with a shout of the semi finals and only Cork are mathematically safe from relegation (I think). Realistically, you'd expect the other three semi final places to go to three of Cork, Dublin, Mayo or Down.
The loser of the Donegal - Armagh game will be relegated, Laois have to beat Down to have any chance of avoiding returning to division 2.

NFL Division 2
Galway v Kildare, Pearse Stadium, 2.30pm
Meath v Louth, Pairc Tailteann, 2.30pm
Tyrone v Monaghan, Healy Park, 2.30pm
Westmeath v Derry, Cusack Park, 2.30pm

Tyrone have destroyed division 2 with a 100% record and not conceding a single goal in the process. The other promotion spot will be decided between Galway and Kildare in Salthill with Kildare needing only a draw to go up.
The other 5 teams are all involved in a relegation battle. Realistically, only a very unlikely combination of results will see Derry relegated. If Meath lose to Louth, they'll have to rely on both Monaghan and Westmeath losing to stay up. Louth and Westmeath really have to win to have any realistic chance of staying up.

NFL Division 3
Cavan v Antrim, Kingspan Breffni Park, 2.30pm
Longford v Wexford, Pearse Park, 2.30pm
Sligo v Roscommon, Markievicz Park, 2.30pm
Tipperary v Offaly, Semple Stadium, 2.30pm

Longford and Wexford are already promoted. Tipperary have been relegated. The other relegation spot is between Offaly and Cavan. If Cavan get anything out of their game with Antrim, Offaly are down. But if Cavan lose and Offaly win, Cavan will drop to division 4 due to Offaly having beaten Cavan

NFL Division 4
Carlow v Fermanagh, Dr. Cullen Park, 2.30pm
Clare v Kilkenny, Cusack Park, 2.30pm
Leitrim v Waterford, Pairc Sean Mac Diarmada, 2.30pm
London v Wicklow, Ruislip, 2.30pm

There's still one round to go after this weekend but Fermanagh will go up to FL3 with just a draw against Carlow. The other promotion spot is between Wicklow and (surprisingly perhaps) Clare. Clare will beat Kilkenny at the weekend and will be promoted in the unlikely event that Wicklow don't beat London. If both teams win, the winner of the Wicklow - Clare game the following weekend will determine who's promoted.

So how do people see the games going? I can see Dublin missing out on the semi finals which would be very surprising and I'd expect that Kildare will beat Galway for promotion. Can see Louth beating us but I think we'll survive through luck (again).

solarith

Why 'apart from division 4', exactly?


Anyway.

It was expected that Fermanagh would go up and they will do so accordingly. The other spot was up between Limerick, Wicklow, Waterford and Clare. Not sure who most expected, maybe Limerick, but Clare have shown a great league with some big wins. Division 4 is a bit of a warzone with all teams very even and capable of taking points off each other (not counting the bottom 2) [Eg: Wicklow, Limerick, Waterford, Carlow, Leitrim were all level points going into last weekend]. With this said, Wicklow have been finishing strong since they lost to Waterford, and Clare generally struggle in latter stages of league, so the Wicklow - Clare game on final day could be epic. Who is at home?

DDC1990

solarith wrote: »

Why 'apart from division 4', exactly?

Still one round to go maybe?

Hammer Archer

solarith wrote: »

Why 'apart from division 4', exactly?

Division 4 still have one round of games to play after this weekend's games. Division 4 doesn't finish until April 15th.

DDC1990

Question, a big win for Cork vs Dublin.
A tight win for Laois over Down.
Donegal to beat Armagh.

Could Dublin be Mathematically relegated?
I know its unlikely, but i'd need to see the Points difference to see how unlikely.


EDIT: Its practically impossible.

Mayo +11 6 Points
Dublin +10 6 Points
Down -12 6 Points
Armagh -22 5 Points
Laois -17 4 Points
Donegal -13 4 Points

Laois and Donegal would have to win massivly, which would put Down's points difference way down, which would put them and Armagh down.

Makes Mayo and Dublin safe barring a 40 point loss effectively

solarith

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Division 4 still have one round of games to play after this weekend's games. Division 4 doesn't finish until April 15th.

My apologies, missunderstood

Hammer Archer

DDC1990 wrote: »

Question, a big win for Cork vs Dublin.
A tight win for Laois over Down.
Donegal to beat Armagh.

Could Dublin be Mathematically relegated?
I know its unlikely, but i'd need to see the Points difference to see how unlikely.

Mathematically, yes but I'll wear a Dublin jersey for a week if it happens (please don't happen now).
Dublin are on +10 pd, Down are on -12 and Laois are on -17. So (as far as I can see) if Laois happen to beat Down by 2 or 3 points, Dublin would have to lose by more than 25 against Cork to be relegated. So unless half the Dublin team go bat$h!t insane and get sent off, it's not gonna happen.

Hammer Archer

solarith wrote: »

Why 'apart from division 4', exactly?


Anyway.

It was expected that Fermanagh would go up and they will do so accordingly. The other spot was up between Limerick, Wicklow, Waterford and Clare. Not sure who most expected, maybe Limerick, but Clare have shown a great league with some big wins. Division 4 is a bit of a warzone with all teams very even and capable of taking points off each other (not counting the bottom 2) [Eg: Wicklow, Limerick, Waterford, Carlow, Leitrim were all level points going into last weekend]. With this said, Wicklow have been finishing strong since they lost to Waterford, and Clare generally struggle in latter stages of league, so the Wicklow - Clare game on final day could be epic. Who is at home?

Think the game's in Aughrim.
Yeah, Division 4 has been crazily unpredictable this year (as evidenced by Carlow easily beating Waterford on Saturday). Personally thought Limerick would have been promoted and would never have expected Clare to be up there. I sort of hope Clare do it as I'm pretty sure they missed out on promotion 2 years ago on the last say as well. It'd be heartbreaking for the same thing to happen this year.

Emmet Ryan

One lad (not me) has worked out Mayo's permutations. Don't know the rest, will post if I find them. Here are the Mayo ones: http://t.co/bepQuX1N

corny

Not expecting much from Dublin against Cork. They're the one side consistently beating Dublin when it matters over the last couple of years. Regardless of the result i hope Dublin pull the finger out and perform.

Kerry, Cork and Down to go through with Mayo, Donegal and Dublin finishing on 6 points each. Cork to win the league.

DDC1990

This weekend, fancy Mayo to grab a tight win vs Kerry.

Kerry are top no matter what and will try out a load of players.

Expect unknowns (to people outside Kerry obviously) to start.

Mac an tSaoir in goals.

Johnathan Lyne wing back.
Johnny Buckley wing Forward or Midfield.

Maybe Daithí Casey up front.

Then lads like Barry John Keane, James O'Donaghue, Patrick Curtain, Enright, Crowley, Maguire who have played throughout the league will be given another game to improve them.

There won't be enough continuity to beat a team of Mayo's caliber, when Mayo will be gunning for a win.

Then again, a lot of those lads played for 60 minutes against Laois with 14 men and still won. Hard to tell.

Silvio.Dante

If Dublin lose what is needed for them to still make the semis..?

Silvio.Dante

Silvio.Dante wrote: »

If Dublin lose what is needed for them to still make the semis..?

Scratch that. I've just seen the table. Too complicated to go into..:)

solarith

Hammer Archer wrote: »

Think the game's in Aughrim.
Yeah, Division 4 has been crazily unpredictable this year (as evidenced by Carlow easily beating Waterford on Saturday). Personally thought Limerick would have been promoted and would never have expected Clare to be up there. I sort of hope Clare do it as I'm pretty sure they missed out on promotion 2 years ago on the last say as well. It'd be heartbreaking for the same thing to happen this year.

Yeah, Waterford beat them 2 years ago to go up instead. Will be an interesting side of Munster this year too with one of Waterford, Limerick or Clare in a Munster Final.

castletownman

This weekend marks the start of what could be potentially a trilogy of clashes between Longford and Wexford. As both teams are through already I wouldn't expect either of them to over-exert themselves this weekend, but I am genuinely looking forward to their league final encounter at the end of the month. I also have a slight feeling that Longford may spring a shock in Leinster and beat Laois, setting up a Leinster 1/4 final with Wexford. Longford are a young team with a real desire to make it back-to-back promotions, and gave Wexford a brilliant match in the Leinster under-21 final last year. Wexford are once again posting big scores, and finally gained promotion after missing out on promotion on score difference two years in succession.

I will say though, for all Wexford's genuine joyful attacking flair, they really need to sort out their backs before the League final. Only Kilkenny have conceded more goals in all four divisions. And with all respect to those in Division Three, they haven't played any of the top bracket teams in the country so far this year.

Hammer Archer

Anyone know if Westmeath will have their Garrycastle contingent back for the Derry game on Sunday? I'd give them every chance of turning Derry over if they do.

Hammer Archer

Looks like the Garrycastle players aren't back in the Westmeath team for the Derry game. That's going to make it very difficult for them. Though Gary Connaughton (who I personally think is one of the best goalkeepers in the country) is back in the team.
Hopefully this expenses row in Louth will mean they take their eye off the ball tomorrow. Still no Meath team named.

AngryBollix

Is it stupid to think Dublin can get a result away to Cork.

If the performance in Castlebar doesnt prompt a reaction then nothing will