28 March

rossom

6.40 Kempton

Mitie Mouse 9/2

I like the look of Mike Murphy's relatively unexposed 3 year old who I'm hoping he can repeat the exploits of his debut over C+D by landing this event. Murphy's colt made his debut as a 2 year old at Kempton in June of last year when running out a neck victor when beating odds on favourite Excavator by a neck. After running a bit free in the early stages of the race, Mitie Mouse came alongside the front running favourite coming into the home straight and put in a game performance to land the Class 6 event. The form of this race is pretty decent, with the 3rd Lupo Doro, who had the benefit of a run prior to this race, finishing 2nd 5 times and 3rd twice in his 7 handicap starts between marks of 71 to 78. After this Mitie Mouse was switched to the turf where he ran at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Stakes. Although last of the field, it demonstrated to me that connections believe he has a bit of ability about him.

On his 3rd start and handicap debut off a mark of 74 in July, Mitie Mouse ran an excellent race to finish a head 2nd in a Class 3 handicap as he was denied on the line by Guru Girl. It was a a good effort and demonstrated that his debut effort was no flash in the pan. The form of that race has worked out pretty well with the winner Guru Girl finishing a 0.25L beaten 2nd on her next start off a 5lb higher mark. Furthermore, the 3rd Kool Henry ran a very promising 4th in a Listed race subsequently and the 6th See Clearly won off the same mark on her next start. On his final 2 starts, Mitie Mouse was pretty disappointing finishing well beaten in Class 4 and Class 2 events although I think something may have been wrong with the horse as on his 2nd last start jockey Neil Callan can be seen looking down and restraining his mount soon after.

Tomorrow Mitie Mouse makes his seasonal reappearance having been off the track since September and given he won on debut I have absolutely no concerns that he will need the run to be seen at best effect. Now a 3 year old, I'm hoping Murphy will have been able to strengthen him up over the winter period. He returns to the scene of his only success off a mark of 75 in a Class 5 event and given his 2nd off only a 1lb lower mark in a higher grade I'll be pretty surprised if he's not good enough to defy this mark in his career, given he has been campaigned in Listed, Class 2 and Class 3 events in his brief career. Furthermore, as most of trainer Mike Murphy's runners are campaigned on the AW I think its significant he has kept Mitie Mouse for the turf season which I am sure he will be campaigned over after this event. The talented Jim Crowley takes the ride for the first time and although he's 0-8 for Muprhy, this will be his first time riding for the trainer since 2010 so I think its an eye catching booking. With Murphy in great form at the moment, I am pretty confident Mitie Mouse can repeat the exploits of his debut and maintain his 100% strike rate on the AW.

rossom

7.25 Leopardstown

Regal Tramp FC 5/1

After putting her up on Friday at Dundalk when gaining her elusive first victory at the 17th time of asking, I'm confident Regal Tramp can make it 2 on the bounce now returned to turf. On her last start, Vincent Ward's 4 year old landed a pretty poor contest on the AW at Dundalk in impressive fashion to win by 1.5L over 12f. After breaking from a wide stall extremely well, Regal Tramp raced a bit closer to the pace than I envisaged but was given a lovely ride by Fran Berry to win. She travelled into the race beautifully and I don't think she was ever fully extended to win. It was just the sort of performance I was hoping to see and I'm convinced theres more to come. She's been raised only 5lb to a mark of 70 and I think the handicapper has been pretty lenient.

Prior to this, Regal Tramp put in a number of good performances off higher handicap marks, including a 0.5L defeat at the Galway Festival off a mark of 73 over trip as well as consecutive 2nds (although both 5L defeats) off marks of 75. It certainly demonstrates her ability to act on the turf and I have no doubt that she's better on this surface. Furthermore, her best effort on turf at Galway was her 3rd run in 8 days which is extremely encouraging as there are no doubts about her ability to perform when turned out again quickly. I'm very happy to see Fran Berry retained for the ride as he appears to be Ward's jockey of choice as he was the regular partner to the trainers Listed winner Fictional Account. Although stepped up in grade from a 47-65 handicap to a 55-80 handicap, my own personal opinion of her abilities coupled with her narrow defeat at Galway in the same company lead me to believe she'll have no problem with the tougher competition. She's stepped up to 14f which I think is her ideal trip and she shaped as if the extra distance would bring about improvement on her last start. It is also very important to note that on the back of her victory Vincent Ward said his horses have been coughing for the past 8 weeks so I think theres a definite possibility she will be fitter again on the back of her last run. Although I'm not as bullish as I was the last day, I am very confident that she can make it two wins from two tomorrow and I certainly think she is up to winning off her current mark of 70.

rossom

8.10 Kempton

Ducal 5/1

I'm hoping this will be the last leg of a very successful day of punting which will hopefully round of a nice treble and a double for trainer Mike Murphy. Ducal is an unexposed 4 year old who has made a bright start to his career for trainer Mike Murphy after previously being with Sir Mark Prescott. After winning once from 6 starts as 3 year old for Prescott, Ducal was very well backed on his debut for his current yard back in December over 7f to be sent off favourite. He had to travel very wide that day and the trainer said afterwards that as a result he ran out of gas. He was beaten by 2.25Land the form of that race has worked out nicely with the winner getting narrowly beaten twice off 4lb and 7lb higher marks and the 3rd Lastkingofscotland has won since off a 4lb higher mark.

On his last start off a mark of 75, Ducal landed his 2nd career success over C+D on the 1st of March to run out a 0.5L winner on the back of a 4month break. Under the handling of tomorrow's jockey John Fahy, Ducal was dropped out the back before being given a very, very confident ride to get up close home after travelling into the race very well. To my eyes, Ducal had a lot left in the tank that day and his 5lb rise to a mark of 80 looks pretty lenient in my eyes. Tomorrow, Ducal is stepped up into Class 4 company for the first time and I am 100% convinced that he will be able to defy this mark in the near future.

The only concern I have in relation to tomorrow's contest is that the race is full of unexposed types, most notably the favourite Haamaat, so there is a chance he could run into an even better handicapped horse tomorrow. That said, I feel Ducal is well handicapped himself and I will be surprised if he doesn't at least fill the frame. I'm very happy with his draw in Stall 4 as it will ensure he shouldn't have the issue of travelling wide which cost him two starts back. I think it also very worth noting that Murphy said after his win that "this was his first run after a break but he was sharp enough to win" which indicates to me he should be fitter. Having never being beaten by more than 2.25L in his 6 starts in a handicap and with only 9 career starts to date, I am confident that Ducal can defy his 5lb rise and make it 2 wins in a row as a 4 year old.

Pinesky

Rossom
What is your read on Regal Tramp 7.25 Leop with a 5 lb penalty is it worth a follow up
Apologies only your first post came up on initial loading . I enjoy your analysis keep them coming

MoscowFlyer

Seriously love your writeups Rossom, I don't care if they don't win or not, it seems we get a good sweat one way or another . Really hope you keep posting throughout the year. Thanks again.

rossom

Mitie Mouse was bad and probably needed the run, Regal Tramp lost too much energy having to travel very wide but Ducal made for a nice end to the day with a great game win.

rossom

In the last at Kempton, Storming Gordon 33/1 looks interesting. Noel Quinlan's 3 year old makes her handicap debut off a mark of 47 and has cheekpieces applied for the first time. The excellent Darren Edward Egan takes 7lb off her back, with his only other ride for Quinlan resulting in a 2nd. With the trainer in decent form I'm certainly having a bet in the hope she can run a big race.

rossom

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Seriously love your writeups Rossom, I don't care if they don't win or not, it seems we get a good sweat one way or another . Really hope you keep posting throughout the year. Thanks again.

Cheers for the sentiments MF. I'll keep posting them. Should hopefully see an even greater upturn in fortunes now the flat season is upon us.