Golf stats - how strongly each is linked to your score

newport2

This extract shows some research on the various stats in golf and how they relate to your scores. The table is the most useful part, whatever about the formula to predict the score. I found it to be quite accurate with my game (the table was in Golf Digest a couple of years ago). It also served as a good insentive to improve on some things such as GIR when I saw how strongly they related to strokes. It finishes off with convincing statistics on how much more improvement short game practice will bring.

"He found that some specific statistics were good predictors of score. For example, the number of pars made could be used to accurately predict score, using the equation, SCORE = 102.6 - 2.7 X #pars. If a player typically makes 7 pars each round, his/her likely average score would be 102.6 - 2.7 X 7 = 83.7.

Take a look at how many pars you usually make in a round (analyze your last 5 rounds). What does the above formula predict for your average score? Is it a good predictor?

Another good predictor is greens in regulation, GIR. The formula Riccio discovered for GIR is SCORE = 95.1 - 2.0 X GIR. If you are an excellent ball striker and happen to hit on average 15 greens per round, then your likely average score would be 95.1 - 2.0 X 15 = 65.1. Yes, 65! The pros don't hit on average 15 greens per round.

The last column indicates the strength of the statistical relationship between score and the statistic. A "Strong" relationship is one that predicts quite well one statisitic given the other (i.e. the SCORE given the GIR). A "Weak" relationship does not predict as well.
Let's say your scoring average is 89. You have a goal to get down to breaking 80, thus a scoring average of 79. Compared to overall average golfer statistics, you need to improve by:
† increasing GIR from 3 to 8 (267% increase)
† increasing Iron Accuracy from 20 to 53% (265% increase)
† reducing Putts per Round from 35.0 to 31.7 (9.5% decrease)
† reducing Pitch/Chip/Sand from 15.6 to 9.8 (37% decrease)

Your ball striking and thus swing would need to improve immensely to reach your goal. Imagine how much less improvement is necessary with the short game to realize lower scores."

http://www.probablegolfinstruction.com/PGI Newsletter/news09-07-04.htm

k.p.h

People have always and will continue to state "practice the short game its the most important aspect of the game". But ...

GIR has always been the most important factor in a players score.

Closely followed by putting..

While driving is not a vital factor, it is driving and long wood/iron play that costs high handicap players the most shots.

Sure, practicing your short game might be the easiest way to cut shots. It's not as difficult to improve at but it's a dead end once you get to a certain level. To improve you need a consistent accurate swing.

Don't fall into the trap, get a coach and hit the range if you want to improve.

kagni

Did they really need to include the fact that the number of birdies and pars has a stong influence on your final score!

matt-dublin

I completely agree with GIR k.p.h, when that stat improves in my game my scores reduce dramatically.

you don't need to hit a fairway to get a GIR, although it does help.

If you're getting a good GIR ratio and keep the average putts low you'll see handicaps drop.

I think if you look at higher handicap players their average putts tend to be significantly higher and GIR is low but FIR can be very high, especially for short hitters

kincsem

I would be more interested in how drive length (or carry) relate to scores. Imo the big difference between scores is shot length.

matt-dublin

i wouldn't think so, i know plenty of big big hitters who can't get past their mid teens, yet a lot of the single figure guys i know are hot putters and very accurate with their mid and short irons.

its all and well being able to hiit it a long way but without those GIRs you're not going to score unless your chipping/putting is hot

cackhanded

Sorry but those equations for score prediction just don't add up. For instance, if I had 18 pars, my predicted score would be 102.6 - (2.7 * 18) = 54 .
Similarly, if I hit 18 GIR my predicted score would be 59.1 - it predicts I am going to make 13 out of 18 birdie putts!

Do you have a link to the full article, would be interested to see if there are any conditions on the accuracy of the equations - ie. only accurate for low values of pars or GIR.

Edit: Just noticed the link at the end of your post.

Jul3s

This is brilliant!, more stats to clog up the minds of the people who can least cope with it, just what the game needs.

newport2

Ok, getting a lot of grief for this thread!:eek:

I saw the table a few years ago, I remember it being what opened my eyes to how important GIR were (obvious in hindsight I know). It really drove me to practice because it showed how big a difference a few extra greens hit would make to my score.

Re: the formula, only saw it for the first time today when I stumbled across this, so sorry if it doesn't add up. It was the table I posted for.

Tones69

kincsem wrote: »

I would be more interested in how drive length (or carry) relate to scores. Imo the big difference between scores is shot length.

hmm nope 1000% disagree with you

Corkblowin

kincsem wrote: »

I would be more interested in how drive length (or carry) relate to scores. Imo the big difference between scores is shot length.

Not true I'm afraid - once a golfer can get it out any kind of distance at all the big difference in the handicaps comes down to hitting greens, and where they're missed how often they get up and down.

Bernard Langer said once that if an 18 handicapper played every shot up 100 yards from the green and he took over from there that he'd be confident of getting around in par or better.

PhilipMarlowe

I don't not mostly (61%) disagree with some or all of most of the above.

kincsem

http://www.jssm.org/vol10/n1/2/v10n1-2pdf.pdf

Conclusions
Taken together, the results of the reviewed studies seem to indicate that:
1) a positive relationship exists between handicap and swing performance variables (even though few studies have investigated this issue);
2) there is a positive correlation between skill (handicap and/or score) and muscle strength;
3) there is a relationship between driving distance, swing speed, ball speed and muscle strength.

saintastic

I started doing my stats last year and I used this software: http://www.golfstatdoctor.com/.

You load up your course which takes around 10 minutes and then every time you play, you record your GIRs, fairways hits, putts and score obviously. This part only takes around 2/3 minutes.

Then the software spits out your stats and tells you how each stats compares to a scratch golfer and an 18 handicapper. So if you are off 22, it shows what you need to improve to get your stats to an 18 handicap. And if you are 15, you can just see easily what is required in each stat to get to 9 (halfway between 0 and 18) and so on.

It costs $29 to purchase it (I am not affiliated with it) but the best thing is that you can try it out for 10 rounds to see if you like it without giving a credit card or anything.

GreeBo

k.p.h wrote: »

People have always and will continue to state "practice the short game its the most important aspect of the game". But ...

GIR has always been the most important factor in a players score.

Closely followed by putting..

While driving is not a vital factor, it is driving and long wood/iron play that costs high handicap players the most shots.

Sure, practicing your short game might be the easiest way to cut shots. It's not as difficult to improve at but it's a dead end once you get to a certain level. To improve you need a consistent accurate swing.

Don't fall into the trap, get a coach and hit the range if you want to improve.

A good score for GIR shows how good your round can be, a good short game prevents you from having 107 shots if your striking is off.

Also, you cannot really practice GIR, but you can practice your short game.

newport2

GreeBo wrote: »

A good score for GIR shows how good your round can be, a good short game prevents you from having 107 shots if your striking is off.

Also, you cannot really practice GIR, but you can practice your short game.

Agreed. I've seen plenty of really good golfers who are not great ball-strikers, but I can't recall any really good golfers who don't have a tidy short game.

I think the stats work as different guidelines depending on where your game is at. If you're a beginner, you will probably benefit quicker from working on your short game. If you're a relatively competent golfer with a reasonably good short game, you may benefit more from focusing on hitting more greens in regulation.

I've concluded that I need to work on both and always will