How do you decide on Marathon Pace

ocnoc

Exactly what it says on the tin.

How does an athlete come up with a realistic marathon pace for their first marathon?
Do you just pick a time you'd like to hit and then get stuck in?
Or is there some more dark art secret to pick a time that would be challenging yet achievable?

RayCun

Race shorter distances and extrapolate

Quazzie

Run flat out for the first mile, then when you get to the front, put on a Charlie Sheen mask and shout 'WINNING!!!!'.

After that no matter you do in life you'll know at one stage you were a winner.

Krusty_Clown

ocnoc wrote: »

Exactly what it says on the tin.

How does an athlete come up with a realistic marathon pace for their first marathon?
Do you just pick a time you'd like to hit and then get stuck in?
Or is there some more dark art secret to pick a time that would be challenging yet achievable?

Your half-marathon time is the tried and trusted method.. Failing that, you can extrapolate an initial target from a 10k time, using something like McMillan's pace calculator. Then as you progress through your training plan, the feedback from running miles at marathon pace during long runs will allow you to tweak your goal time accordingly.

Others have found that Yasso 800s are a good mechanism for predicting marathon capability, but in my limited view, before you run your Yasso 800s, you already have a target in mind and your target tends to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Establishing a goal is certainly a challenge for your first marathon, as typically, most first time marathoners don't run past the 20 mile mark, so endurance is still a big unknown. In your case, because you typically already cover strenuous multi-hour events, the unknown will likely be: can you hold an aggressive pace consistently for the duration of your marathon. The answer to that one really lies in long runs (18-20 miles) which include large sections of PMP miles (8-12 miles).

Clearlier

Quazzie wrote: »

Run flat out for the first mile, then when you get to the front, put on a Charlie Sheen mask and shout 'WINNING!!!!'.

After that no matter you do in life you'll know at one stage you were a winner.

Most marathon runners wouldn't be able to keep up for the first mile.

It's a much maligned method but I used heart rate for my first marathon and it worked beautifully for me. Mind you I had used it it in every training run and was a bit of a slave to it so I had a pretty good idea of what different numbers were telling me.

Slogger Jogger

ocnoc wrote: »

Exactly what it says on the tin.

How does an athlete come up with a realistic marathon pace for their first marathon?
Do you just pick a time you'd like to hit and then get stuck in?
Or is there some more dark art secret to pick a time that would be challenging yet achievable?

HEADLINE "ocnoc in conventional race enquiry shock". Had to pick myself up off the floor.

Whats the deal? Secretly planning a go? Through a foggy hillside of course.

ocnoc

Generally speaking, my race prep is to just rock up to a race and give it a lash.
A few people I know tried that tactic and it ended in a painful 2:50hr slog.

So, if your going to do that much damage to yourself, you might is well do it right. Will I run a marathon this year - definitely not. Just curious.
I hear a 55min 10mile is about a 2:35 marathon going by KC.
Personally, I'd prefer to be in 51-52 10mile shape before giving it a lash.

pconn062

ocnoc wrote: »

Generally speaking, my race prep is to just rock up to a race and give it a lash.
A few people I know tried that tactic and it ended in a painful 2:50hr slog.

So, if your going to do that much damage to yourself, you might is well do it right. Will I run a marathon this year - definitely not. Just curious.
I hear a 55min 10mile is about a 2:35 marathon going by KC.
Personally, I'd prefer to be in 51-52 10mile shape before giving it a lash.

How likely is this time for you? I don't mean that in a facetious way, genuinely curious. 51 minutes would have got you in the top 6 at Ballycotton this year.

ocnoc

ocnoc wrote: »

Will I run a marathon this year - definitely not.

pconn062 wrote: »

How likely is this time for you? I don't mean that in a facetious way, genuinely curious. 51 minutes would have got you in the top 6 at Ballycotton this year.

I'm training with guys that are in the 52-55 10mile shape so I reckon I am currently around that shape. I mostly stick to orienteering, mountain and XC.
Would I have gotten top 10 in Ballycotton - No.

A0

ocnoc wrote: »

Generally speaking, my race prep is to just rock up to a race and give it a lash.
A few people I know tried that tactic and it ended in a painful 2:50hr slog.

So, if your going to do that much damage to yourself, you might is well do it right. Will I run a marathon this year - definitely not. Just curious.
I hear a 55min 10mile is about a 2:35 marathon going by KC.
Personally, I'd prefer to be in 51-52 10mile shape before giving it a lash.

Your example makes sense but be careful with extrapolations. Although it works pretty well for distances ranging from 3 to 21.1km then it is a bit more complex when it comes to predict a marathon time based on a 10k or 21.1k time as there are other variables to take into account (e.g., hydration, marathon type fatigue, substrate utilisation, etc.). Testing yourself (field, lab. testing or tempo sessions) is a very good way of estimating what will be your marathon pace. But still you will have to wait to have done your first to know what it is like and start from there.

Krusty_Clown

ocnoc wrote: »

I hear a 55min 10mile is about a 2:35 marathon going by KC.

Running a 55 min 10 mile means that according to Macmillan's calculator (algorithm) it's the equivalent in terms of performance to a 2:34:03 marathon. That doesn't infer that you can run a 2:34:03 marathon, just as training with guys who run 52 minutes doesn't mean you can run 52 minutes. It is just a useful starting point that you can adjust as training progresses.

Unfortunately, as long as you are just theorizing, they are sadly just theories. The only way you can know your potential is to try it.

ocnoc

Krusty_Clown wrote: »

Running a 55 min 10 mile means that according to Macmillan's calculator (algorithm) it's the equivalent in terms of performance to a 2:34:03 marathon. That doesn't infer that you can run a 2:34:03 marathon, just as training with guys who run 52 minutes doesn't mean you can run 52 minutes. It is just a useful starting point that you can adjust as training progresses.

Unfortunately, as long as you are just theorizing, they are sadly just theories. The only way you can know your potential is to try it.

I agree. McM is the time that you can run if you train for it.
Training, keeping up and dishing out a bit of pain with the faster guys plants the idea in your head that you can. Once the idea is there, water carefully and reep the rewards.
So, I'll go with my initial thought process of its a black art until you actually run one.

Don't watch this space. You could be a long time waiting.

Itziger

With all due respect, what's the point of this thread? You say you train with 52/55 min 10 mile runners. And they don't discuss marathon pace and training and you wouldn't think of asking them?? You say you'd prefer to be in 52 min shape before attempting a marathon (which McMillan makes a 2.25). How many on here run that kind of pace?

Then after the tease you tell us not to hold our breath. So, why the question in the first place?? Good luck with your first one btw, whenever it happens.

ocnoc

I was curious to how people come up with a marathon pace. No, I didn't think of asking them. We talk about many other things apart from running - such as the best way to brew a coffee. I am not overly interested in running a marathon right now. It just occured to me that I had no idea how I would come up with a MP if I decided to train for one tomorrow morning. I see nothing wrong with looking to get more information to increase my knowledge on how to train ones body to achieve a peak performance. I have no experience of races longer than ~30km and I rarely race on road so I decided to through the question to the masses.

How many race 51/52 pace; probably not many. That doesn't mean that they don't know what they are talking about. There are some very switched on people lurking on these boards - might is well tap into that knowledge.
Newbies can get away with asking basic questions so i assumed I could is well.

Itziger

Look man, I'm not looking for an argument here, but there's a reason Newbies can ask innocent questions. If a runner of your ability is going to run a marathon, you're surely going to train properly and during that training it'll become more obvious what a realistic goal is. And I've never come across a bunch of decent runners who don't discuss pace and races and what not - as well as how to brew coffee. I bet half of the fellas you train with could give you a relatively accurate time already!

You are right about the mine of info on here though, I'll grant you that.

T runner

Itziger wrote: »

Look man, I'm not looking for an argument here, but there's a reason Newbies can ask innocent questions. If a runner of your ability is going to run a marathon, you're surely going to train properly and during that training it'll become more obvious what a realistic goal is. And I've never come across a bunch of decent runners who don't discuss pace and races and what not - as well as how to brew coffee. I bet half of the fellas you train with could give you a relatively accurate time already!

You are right about the mine of info on here though, I'll grant you that.

I disagree. Ive been putting several 160km weeks since January and i would put my prediction at between 2:30 and 2:35 and im 4 weeks out. Im glad the question was asked.

Ocnoc knows there are several people training for spring marathons here, some may be running times not too much slower than his ballpark. So he can predict a comprehensive enough answer by asking the question here, probably more so than asking the question between breaths during a training run.

Maria McCambridge's 10 mile time would give her a 2:33 marathon. Yet she ran just under 2:37. Fast twitch vs slow twitch? Did she play it safe?

I have ran a predicted pace for 20k in training. But i recover (usuallly) for 6-7 days between long hard sessions. The same pace run is not as difficult for me as for a P and D scheduler. How can i predict my pace?

Thats a question i dont yet have an answer too because i think my AT is far more developed than my LT so mcmillan should predict a too slow marathon based on my 10k. A lot of variables and a very fair question.