RSA Chase

Shane732

IMO this looks like a pretty competitive field.

I suppose Gran Crus is a worthy favourite but the like of Bobs Worth, First Lieutenant and Join Together must all have claims.

So opinions on the RSA?

tonic wine

Join Together

First Lieutenant - Festival winner and the form beating the current champion hurdler Rock on Ruby, So young and oscars well in the neptune hurdle looks even better now.

cmurph00

Agree with tonic wine. Money on First Lieutenant

leggit

First Lieutenant

If Bobs Worth stays up, he wins. Don't see anybody really getting away from him and he'll finish like a beast!

Shane732

Bobs Worth

Why are you all disregarding Gran Crus?

Gran Crus was second by 1 3/4l to Big Bucks. To my mind that's the best hurdle form in the race.

Gran Crus beat Bobs Worth easy in Kempton.

While I've liked First Lieutenant for a long time he hasn't exactly shown stunning form over fences.

Johner

Bobs Worth

Shane732 wrote: »

Why are you all disregarding Gran Crus?

Gran Crus was second by 1 3/4l to Big Bucks. To my mind that's the best hurdle form in the race.

Gran Crus beat Bobs Worth easy in Kempton.

While I've liked First Lieutenant for a long time he hasn't exactly shown stunning form over fences.

Exactly.

I'm all over Grand Crus here.

Morgans

First Lieutenant's Neptune form got a big boost today. I think good ground will see him improve on what he has done to date. Mouse, who I wouldn't rate too highly, is very good at getting his horses running their best at the festival. China Rock is one that springs to mind last year (and this one) of course. Would be very interested in the betting without market.

I think Grand Crus would definitely win at Kempton. I do have a nagging doubt about the distance. Not on the basis of Big Bucks pulling away from him a couple of times last year, but he didnt win at Kempton by as much as it looked likely to the third last. Just enough of a doubt to prevent lumping on.

Paddy Power are doing a match bet Lambro vs Walkon. Walkon looks a shadow of his former self and would like to see anything related to evens about Lambro.

UrbanSea

AN Other

I think Join Together is good value here. Course and distance form too

Shane732

Bobs Worth

Morgans wrote: »

First Lieutenant's Neptune form got a big boost today. I think good ground will see him improve on what he has done to date. Mouse, who I wouldn't rate too highly, is very good at getting his horses running their best at the festival. China Rock is one that springs to mind last year (and this one) of course. Would be very interested in the betting without market.

I think Grand Crus would definitely win at Kempton. I do have a nagging doubt about the distance. Not on the basis of Big Bucks pulling away from him a couple of times last year, but he didnt win at Kempton by as much as it looked likely to the third last. Just enough of a doubt to prevent lumping on.

Paddy Power are doing a match bet Lambro vs Walkon. Walkon looks a shadow of his former self and would like to see anything related to evens about Lambro.

I hadn't actually seen the Kempton race until recently and turning the corner I thought he was going to run away with it. You're right it certainly didn't win by as much as I thought he would turning the corner. I wonder how much of the that was down to idleness as opposed to the tank being empty.

I'd be surprised to see Bobs Worth turn the form around. I don't know think First Lieutenant is as smooth a jumper as Grand Crus but on his day he could conceivably win this.

Re the match bet - Isn't this Walkon first time at this distance?

Morgans

No. Grand Crus isn't an idler. Never has been. If he settles better and they go a good clip on good ground, he might be deployed later, but he pulled himself to the front at Kempton. There is enough of a doubt for me at the prices.

Lambro's first race at the distance also. I'm happy to oppose Walkon and Lambro's form with Flemenstar looks solid and came back well last time out after a bad mistake. Like the horse, probably not good enough to get involved at the very end of the race, but it wouldnt surprise me either.

MoscowFlyer

Bobs Worth

People don't think he (Grand Crus) can stay this trip, he most certainly can. He is such a gutsy little animal, will take all the beating and I'll be shocked if he isn't in the winning enclosure after the race.

Juwwi

RACE TRENDS:

• 23 of the last 24 winners won or finished second last time out
• 11 of the last 16 winners were rated below 134 over hurdles, however the last five were not
• Only 1 winner (Florida Pearl) with less than 3 chase starts since 1992
• All 17 Feltham winners have been beaten (5 horses beaten in that race have won)
• The last 47 winners had run in the calendar year
• Seven year olds have won 10 of the last 12
• No winner over eight since 1992
• Only 2 six year olds have won since 1978
• 10 of the last 12 winners raced prominently
• Only 5 Irish victories since 1985 (last three)
• 3 of the 5 Irish winners were trained by Willie Mullins
• 5 of the 11 Willie Mullins runners have finished in the first two

Some stats taken from oddschecker site I know stats arent everyones cup of tea (especially Morgan ) but that one highlighted is very interesting.

UrbanSea

AN Other

That seems to point to Bob's Worth bar the Willie Mullins and hurdle rating.


Aren't ratings strange. Bob's Worth rated the same as Cannington Brook, yet it's 4/1 v 50/1

Colonel Sanders

Thing about Feltham winners is that Kempton & Cheltenham are very different tracks. But Grand Crus has already proven form at Cheltenham.

Isn't there a stat also about winners having been novice hurdling the previous season also? Not sure there's any logic to reading much into that

Colonel Sanders

Spoils are on their own at 6/4.

2.46/2.48 on Betfair

Juwwi

UrbanSea wrote: »

That seems to point to Bob's Worth bar the Willie Mullins and hurdle rating.

Yea I was thinking that aswell myself but because theres a few at the top of the market that has'nt ran plus the fact trainers now a days have better facilities to get a horse ready than 47 years ago suggests the stat will probably go soon but keeping this stat in mind and the Feltham one would definately make me weary of backing Grand Crus at 6/4.

Morgans

Backed First Lietenant. Great race. Bob's Worth very good again. Backed him in the Feltham of course.

Think Grands Crus conclusively didnt stay.

Shane732

Bobs Worth

Very surprised by Gran Crus and Bobs Worth.

Gran Crus didn't look himself but he still got to them on the bridle. Didn't have enough in the tank to take them on.

Morgans

Id give serious thought about the Queen Mother next year with him. Wouldnt surprise me if they went handicapping with him - Topham maybe even this year - but Paddy Power being a target next year - will see him in the ryanair hopefully next year.

Shane732

Bobs Worth

Morgans wrote: »

Id give serious thought about the Queen Mother next year with him. Wouldnt surprise me if they went handicapping with him - Topham maybe even this year - but Paddy Power being a target next year - will see him in the ryanair hopefully next year.

You think he'd be a quick enough jumper for the Queen Mother?

UrbanSea

AN Other

Morgans wrote: »

Backed First Lietenant. Great race. Bob's Worth very good again. Backed him in the Feltham of course.

Think Grands Crus conclusively didnt stay.

No disagreeing with that Morgans

Morgans

I'd love to see it. Obviously Sprinter Sacre is the new boy on the horizon, but there wont be nearly the worry about him settling etc, let him off and see how he goes. Think over 3m+ they are hoping to curb his natural exuberance to see him home. Over 2m, let him off and see what he is capable of.

handsomecake

AN Other

henderson is treble handed in next years gold cup already .long run,burton port and ,bobs worth

Colonel Sanders

Morgans wrote: »

I'd love to see it. Obviously Sprinter Sacre is the new boy on the horizon, but there wont be nearly the worry about him settling etc, let him off and see how he goes. Think over 3m+ they are hoping to curb his natural exuberance to see him home. Over 2m, let him off and see what he is capable of.

Interesting.....

Even if they get him to settle a bit better I don't think Gold Cup trips will be his forte, why not try him at shorter.

Juwwi

The fact they never realy mentioned the arkle for him this season I'd be surprised if he's fast enough over 2 miles and even more so that it seems there's a new superstar on the horizon.

Even last year they prefared to take on Big Bucks rather than try the champion hurdle if he had enough speed.

Morgans

Florida Pearl and One Man are examples of horses that ended up running in the QM having been seen as stayers initially. If I was to put my house on it, I think it will be Paddy Power, King George and Ryanair for him next year, but id definitely go for the QM before the Gold Cup. Still a very talented horse.

Colonel Sanders

What's his OR Morgans?

Juwwi

It was 159 before today Colonel.

Problem for connections could be that if he wins the PP chase and King George
but still might'nt stay the GC trip they wont know what to go for.