Cheltenham Preview Night Reports

Juwwi

I posted two reports in the off topic thread but taught maybe its best
to have a thread for reports or if someone wants to post their notes or hears something interesting at a preview night they could post it here.

Juwwi

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW EVENING at EXETER RACECOURSE
Sponsored by Sky Bet

Thursday, February 23rd

The panel comprised of four top trainers Paul Nicholls (PN), David Pipe (DP), Philip Hobbs (PH), Nick Williams (NW) who basically only talked about their own horses, Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones (PJ), Racing Post West Country Correspondent Andrew King (AK), Paddy Power representative Paul Binfield (PB) who mainly gave betting updates and Zoey Bird (ZB) as Master of Ceremonies.

With such a big panel, a lot of races were rushed through in time of the excellent Toad In The Hole Supper so not all panellists were asked for their views on all races but here are the best bits. For the latest prices for each race please click on the Sky Bet banners.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
PN: We’ve had coughing in the yard so had to cancel the media day as it wasn’t fair on the horses but also provided a good excuse not to have the media here! We will possibly run Prospect Wells. He has had a breathing op since his last run and is a big price at 33/1 on his best form.
PH: Colour Squadron is fine after his fall but that was not the ideal prep. He has schooled well since so no reason why he shouldn’t perform on the day. He has not had the strongly run race he needs yet.
PJ: Simonsig is the most likely winner if he runs here but I fear they will run him in the wrong race. Looks like he is crying out for a fast-run 2m given his cruising speed. In his possible absence then Midnight Game appeals most as he is coming right at the right time, is the Mullins number one and expected to improve again for better ground than he has faced in Ireland.
AK: I think Darlan will run and has a major chance as long as his confidence has not been affected by his bad fall last time. I’ve also a sneaky feeling Cinders And Ashes will run very well.

ARKLE TROPHY
PN: Al Ferof got some good experience against established two-milers at Ascot. I’m hopeful we can outstay Sprinter Sacre who could be a speed horse on flat tracks who is very keen in his races. He got outstayed by Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme and it will be interesting to see if he gets up the hill this time.
DP: Sprinter Sacre is a good thing. He can go long and short and will come up the hill okay and have too much pace for his rivals.
PH: Menorah jumps well for the most part but the most part isn’t good enough and especially in a race like the Arkle. A strong pace will suit him better but I don’t think he can beat Sprinter Sacre but he has a good place chance.
PJ: Stats point to Peddlers Cross but in my heart of hearts I think the only thing can stop Sprinter Sacre is him being too brave at a fence. The hill argument is a red herring as he has had a wind op since last year, he has physically improved since last year plus the Arkle is a shorter race than the Supreme and they jump five more obstacles so it’s not quite as all-out a gallop as the Supreme is which means that would be against Al Ferof.
AK: Sprinter Sacre is my lay of the meeting. He can not win! He is not guaranteed to come up the hill and folded tamely last year in the Supreme. He is up against strong stayers here and four Cheltenham Festival winners and he has yet to win at the course. At around Evens he is too short.

JLT SPECIALTY HANDICAP CHASE
PN: Noland will be my only runner I suspect.
DP: The Grand National is the main aim for The Package but he runs here first and was second two years ago off 141 and is now rated 139. He’s in great form but needs everything to go right. Massinis Maguire is also in the Grand National but he is sore after Ascot as he puts so much into his races. We’ll see if he goes here. Junior could go here as his Grand National prep or the Gold Cup or maybe the Grimthorpe at Doncaster.

CHAMPION HURDLE
PN: I was beginning to sweat regards Zarkandar before Newbury as the horses next to him were coughing. Since he won as he has snuffling and is on antibiotics but has cantered well since. The quicker they go the better for him. We’ve got improve enormously to beat Hurricane Fly but he is the one unexposed horse. Rock On Ruby will improve enormously for the return to Cheltenham and Noel Fehily rides. I don’t think Binocular enhanced his claims beating Celestial Halo last time. I would rather run Celestial Halo in the World Hurdle but the owner thinks he can finish second in the Champion Hurdle so he runs here.
PJ: I will keep it short and sweet as I can’t see past Hurricane Fly. Oscars Well is my idea of the horse most likely to finish second.
AK: The way Binocular beat Celestial Halo was impressive. If that Binocular turns up I think he will give Hurricane Fly a race. He’s an each-way good thing.



CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
NW: Maljimar will run again and has won two cross country races in France. He has twice been beaten at the Festival at 1-10 in running so hopefully it will be third time lucky.
PH: Balthazar King will run. He hurt himself in the fracas here at the December Meeting but is okay now.

OLBG MARES HURDLE
NW: There is no strength in depth in the mares race whereas there will be 24 runners in the Coral Cup so we will run Swincombe Flame here. I want to take the easier option and I think she will be in the first three.

NH CHASE
PN: Harry The Viking will definitely stay and has not run as he want him fresh. He has been coughing but we are confident he will get over it.
NW: Alfie Spinner will run after his good third in the Reynoldstown and we have booked Sam Waley-Cohen. He will definitely get the trip.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NEPTUNE HURDLE
PN: I was discussing running plans for Prospect Wells with Graham Wylie and he told me Boston Bob is likely to run here.
PH: He has pulled a hamstring and needs a few days easy. He is not out of the race but more than a week off and it’s a problem. It’s 50-50.
PJ: I have a lot of respect for the Fingal Bay-Simonsig Sandown form but I rate Boston Bob even a notch up from that giving 10lbs in heavy ground to class horses last time and I hope they run here and think they might as Mullins and Wylie both like the race and it is more prestigious than the Albert Bartlett. I strongly fancy Boston Bob to win whichever race he runs in.

RSA CHASE
PN: We’ve purposely not run Join Together saving him for this. He jumps well and stays very well. Stamina is his forte so he would prefer the New Course (RSA run on Old Course).
DP: If I could have £1 for every time I have been asked where Grands Crus will run. It’s a nice dilemma to have. It’s frightening looking at the media every day seeing who is missing the Festival so let’s see. We will decide five days before.
PJ: Grands Crus wouldn’t be a stats horse as Feltham winners have a shocking record but we know he bounds up the hill. I strongly fancy Bobs Worth each-way. He was giving Invictus weight at Ascot when not beaten far having only had one gallop since a wind op and is much better racing left-handed being unbeaten at Cheltenham in three starts. He also only had five lengths to find with Grands Crus in the Feltham and has had a wind op since and will be happier away from Kempton.
AK: Grands Crus has to be one of the better bets of the meeting of those at short prices.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
PH: The problem with Wishfull Thinking has been his breathing. He has 2 wind ops already and it is still not sorted. He has one decent runs this season and three moderate runs. His best trip is somewhere between 2m-3m. I don’t know! It’s hard to tell when he can’t get the air.
PJ: Sizing Europe for me is not just the best two-miler chaser in training but the best chaser in training full stop and is a bet at odds-against.
AK: Wishfull Thinking has lost the plot. Finians Rainbow is very beatable. Sizing Europe should win but it’s not a race I want to get involved in.



CORAL CUP
DP: Our Father will go for this or the Pertemps Final. Battle Group’s owners want to run in the novice handicap chase instead.
PH: Dare Me and Featherbed Lane are intended runners. Dare Me may be eight but he is still improving. Dunraven Storm was a possible but returned lame from Ascot so may not go anywhere at Cheltenham.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE HANDCIAP HURDLE
PN: Hinterland will probably run. Ruby told me he overdid the waiting tactics last time saying it wasn’t his best ride. He is still on the same mark. He’ll have a big weight but is built to carry it. He is not as well handicapped as when Sanctuaire won it but good enough to win off his mark.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
PH: Village Vic will probably run but he wouldn’t be as good as Cheltenian who won it last year. He is going the right way.
NW: Horatio Hornblower will be entered and if he is full of himself and looks well in his coast I would go for it. If he can improve a 3-4 lengths then we are in the mix but he would need good-to-soft or slower to run.
PB: Sword Of Honour is interesting for pat Flynn who has had a winner and second in this race before. He is ex Aidan O’Brien and an interesting outsider if he runs.

JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE
PN: The plan is to run Cristal Bonus in the Pendil and then this race if good or softer. He is classy being rated 152 over hurdles.
NW: For Non Stop needs everything to go right in his races. Quite a few of these are much of a muchness so he has a chance.
PJ: If you split stakes on Sir Des Champs and Cristal Bonus I don’t think you will lose on the race.

PERTEMPS FINAL
PN: I will run Sonofvic who qualified courtesy of bad weather at Carlisle.
DP: Buena Vista will be going for a third win. I was worried after his Kempton run but he showed a lot more spark last time and that run coincided with better ground. He has won this race off 133 and 138 and is 140 this year so it is not impossible and we will probably put a 10lbs claimer on. Whoever rides he will give them a fantastic spin.
PH: Voladaor is a proper stayer with a squeak but nothing stronger than that.

RYANAIR CHASE
DP: Great Endeavour is the Plate but I imagine the owner will want to run here. Everything went wrong with him in the 3m Festival handicap last year and needs to improve to win. 2n5f at Cheltenham is ideal for him.
NW: Gauvain is a 2m4f horse but he will go to the race where he has the best chance of picking up some prize money so the race with the smallest field (other option is Champion Chase).
PJ: Having not been a great fan if they run Somersby here I am very much warming to his each-way chance as he has the class, is most consistent and cheekpieces could be the making of him.

WORLD HURDLE
PN: Big Buck’s is not coughing. He wasn’t at his best in the Cleeve and came back a bit quiet but has bloomed since. He worked with Kauto this morning and I am very happy with him. Oscar Whisky could be the hardest opponent he has faced as more pacey and has looked very good over 2m4f and is an unknown over 3m. He could be very good. He’s been hurdling too long now to ever go for the Gold Cup.
DP: Big Buck’s is a cert but there is lots of good prize money for Dynaste to chase. Worrying to hear Big Buck’s not at his best last time given he gave us weight an easy beating.
PJ: I’ll be betting without Big Buck’s and reckon if he runs Thousand Stars is the e/w value as he is more or the less than same horse as Oscar Whisky over 2m and 2m4f.



TRIUMPH HURDLE
PN: Ruby will school Dildar on Friday. He has worked and schooled well on Tuesday and there is plenty of improvement to come. He runs in the Adonis and Dodging Bullets runs in the Dovecote. Pearl Swan has the best form so far and I can get him better than last time. All are also in the Supreme so let’s see how Dildar gets on first.
PH: Sadlers Risk is a good horse but let’s get over Saturday first. He has a lot to prove has the potential to be very good. He is my best chance of the week.
NW: Urbain De Sivola is a jumps bred so our chances are helped a lot if it comes up soft to make this a real stamina test.
PJ: Grumeti is so professional that he looks an each-way steal to me at 10/1.

GOLD CUP
PN: It just astounds me how Kauto Star looks. He did a strong 5f with Big Buck’s and for the first time in a long time he took a long time to pull up. His enthusiasm is unbelievable. He is in as good form now as before Haydock and Kempton. Ruby schools him on Friday. Not having Denman harrying him this year will be in his advantage and I also think there is more pressure on Sam (Waley-Cohen) this year. I don’t think Long Run has trained on.
PH: Captain Chris has always jumped to the right but not like that before. Let’s see how we go in the next two weeks, he’s in the Ryanair as well but may not go to Cheltenham. If there was an obvious race on a right handed course he would go there but there isn’t now until Pucnhestown. He’s not looking great in his coat right now.
NW: Diamond Harry has had a wind op. That’s the first time I’ve done it mid season and wouldn’t do it again, I’d wait until the summer.
PJ: Weird Al e/w for me. Doesn’t have a lot to find with Kauto and Long Run on Haydock form which came too soon after winning the Charlie Hall and has a very good Cheltenham record.
AK: I have a feeling that the big two could get beat but prefer Kauto to Long Run. What A Friend is a massive e/w price at 40/1.



NAPS
Paul Nicholls: Chapoturgeon
David Pipe: Alfie Spinner
Philip Hobbs: Sadlers Risk
Nick Williams: Swincombe Flame e/w
Paul Jones: On The Fringe
Zoey Bird: Scotsirish

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=17700&page=2

Juwwi

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at WARWICK RACECOURSE
Sponsored by Sky Bet
Friday, February 24th
The panel was chaired by Chris Pitt who rattled through the races in double quick time to finish before racing commenced and featured up-and-coming trainer Charlie Longsdon (CL) who has a few horses with chances for the Festival (actually ‘arrived’ probably a better term for him now), Andrew Tinkler (AT) who rides for Nicky Henderson and gave the low down of many of their chief hopes, Kevan Minter (KM) (aka The Colonel to some) who gave betting updates and Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author, Paul Jones. As Paul’s views on the Grade 1 races were reported in the first of this series from Exeter, there is no need to repeat those but his views on all 27 races will be reported after the Knaresborough Preview on March 8th when all panellists for that evening run through all races.
To view the latest prices for each race, please click on the Sky Bet banners.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
CL: We will run Vulcanite and Hazy Tom. My horses are not right at the moment so you can see from both of their last runs. I was disappointed with Vulcanite at Newbury as he is 7lbs-14lbs better than that. He wants a strong pace and leading last time was hardly ideal. The owner wanted to take him to a valuable staying prize in Dubai instead but thankfully David Redvers has managed to change his mind which is good for me as he runs here. I hope you will see a far improved performance off a strong pace. I think we will reverse Kempton form with Tetlami. Hazy Tom wasn’t right at Ascot so forget that. Dickie Johnson thinks a fast-run 2m will really suit him when he is right so we have taken him out of the Neptune.
AT: Simonsig schooled very slicky this morning and has the pace to run in either the Supreme or Neptune. They go very, very quick in the Supreme so I would like to see him run here as it would really suit him. He is a real two-miler that would see it out very well. I schooled Darlan today and he went very well and showed no ill effects of his bad fall. Tetlami is by Daylami and has the traits of many offspring of his sire in that he only shows you half his hand as he does what you ask and no more. He has ten times more ability that he has shown.
KM: I always find this a hard race to predict. I know some shrewd judges are on Steps To Freedom at 14s but it worries me that he will not have run since November.
ARKLE TROPHY
CL: Barry Geraghty rode Moscow Flyer and he seems to think that Sprinter Sacre is in a different league to him so I can’t go against him. Flat tracks may suit him better and he has not done it yet at Cheltenham like four of his rivals but, even so. Peddlers Cross to chase him home.
AT: Sptrinter Sacre needs very little introduction now. I made the running on French Opera at Newbury at what I thought was championship pace and he just breezed by me at half-way like I wasn’t even there. He has to work on his own at home as nothing can live with him and we don’t want to break the hearts of horses like Oscar Whisky by working with him. The intention was sit him in behind at Newbury so he can learn but that only lasted about five fences as he just took off past them without even trying. He was a shell of a horse last year which is why he didn’t get up the hill but came back to us looking unrecognisable after the summer and has grown up now.
KM: The stats are against Sprinter Sacre as favourites have a poor Arkle record but I still see it as a match between him and Peddlers Cross.
CHAMPION HURDLE
CL: Hurricane Fly is outstanding and I expect him to win. I hear Zarkandar didn’t come out of his Newbury win brilliantly.
AT: Binocular looked great at Wincanton and I will be really surprised if he is not in the first three. I preferred him to Grandouet as our main hope even before Grandouet had his setback.
KM: I could win on Hurricane Fly. The Evens keeps getting wiped out every time someone offers it on the exchanges.


NH CHASE
CL: The plan is to run Universal Soldier. He has only had one run for us and, to be fair, although he won easily it was a mickey mouse race as Chartreux didn’t get very far. He pulled a muscle on his last start for his previous trainer and is best fresh. He is as slow as a hearse and needs all of 4m so this race should suit him and there is a good chance that Jamie Codd will ride and he has won this race twice before. I would like it to be on the easy side of good ground for him. Strongbows Legend is entered but this might come a year too soon for him, we’ll consider it as he won’t get another chance.
AT: We don’t really have anything for this. Loose Performer maybe but he is not a horse to back at the Festival. Teaforthree I like but just concentrate on the best amateur riders.
KM: A hard race to play in. Teaforthree and Fists Of Fury have been the horses for money recently.
NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
CL: We’ve got Cross Of Honour for this. He’s rated 126. If he was 130 he would have gone for the Coral Cup which would have been ideal but I doubt he would get in off 126. We need to a 140+ horse for this. Dawn Commander will run either here or the Albert Bartlett.
AT: This is Simonsig’s other option but I would personally like to see him in the Supreme as think he is a real two-miler.
KM: Even if Fingal Bay does run I would be worried about the form of the Hobbs yard. Boston Bob will start favourite if he runs here or the Albert Bartlett.
RSA CHASE
CL: I really can’t see past Grands Crus, he has too much class for these.
AT: I’ve not had much to do with Bobs Worth until five days before Ascot when I was asked to school him beforehand. He has no wow factor about him and I would be a bit surprised if he can beat Grands Crus. It can often take a run to get over a wind operation as they think it might hurt them the next time they race. I think that might have happened at Ascot as he looked quite laboured but then when he realised it wasn’t going to hurt he ran on.
KM: Grands Crus is one of my bankers of the meeting. He has high-class hurdles form and travels really easily. Invictus would be my idea of the main danger.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
CL: Sizing Europe should retain his crown. There is not much more to say really, he bolts up over 2m and doesn’t stay 3m. If healthy, he’ll win.
AT: Finian’s Rainbow schooled well this morning. I can’t see him beating Sizing Europe though. Whoever wins this year won’t win it again next year though as Sprinter Sacre will.


JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE
AT: I schooled Solix this week. He jumped the first three beautiful but was bit flat at the fourth, or French as we like to call it at the yard. He has a good chance and he is better than his form says he is.
RYANAIR CHASE
CL: I don’t think you can rule out Albertas Run again and Jonjo knows what it takes. I’d love to this horse win it for a third time. If it comes up soft though I would switch to Rubi Light.
AT: Riverside Theatre was very much tuned up for Ascot. He gets himself fit so there is not much to work on. He could be better on a flat track. I quite like the chances of Medermit to reverse form as Choc almost fell off during the race which we gave him stick for and he wasn’t beaten far and 2m5f suits him really well. If you offered me the ride between Riverside Theatre and Medermit, I would pick Medermit.
KM: The message was very strong for Riverside Theatre at Ascot and the money was right. For me he is an outstanding each-way bet.
WORLD HURDLE
CL: Big Buck’s, what more can I add?
AT: Ruby says Big Buck’s is the biggest cert in racing. Oscar Whisky will be second or third. If there were a Ryanair Hurdle though he would win that. As for the Aintree Hurdle as some say he won’t stay as Thousand Stars nearly caught him that day, I thought Barry nicked the race at Aintree rather than committed too soon him. I thought it was a brilliant ride.
KM: Big Buck’s is an awesome machine but why take 4/9 now when he will trade at around Evens in-running at some point?
__________________

http://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?t=17700&page=2