Cheltanham could be a graveyard for the punter !!

Plentyofice

Only a couple of weeks to go. Can't wait. We all know how difficult it is to get winners but my worry is so many trainers stating their horses have viruses etc etc, it only makes it a quagmire !!
Nicholls says his are coughing. The Shark horses aren't right. Hobbs and Twiston davies seem way off (see Frascati Park yesterday, Captain Chris, Wishful thinking etc etc).
The only one on fire at the mo is Alan King.
Aaaargh :):rolleyes::o

hucklebuck

This week and up to the festival are non betting weeks for me, there are loads of horses just out for the run. Shark had two yesterday that looked like they were out for a pipe opener.

On Twiston Davies, he hasn't really been firing on all cylinders, maybe the sons aren't as good as he thinks and Paddy Brennan is very good, great seeing him having plenty of winners:)

Hulk Hands

Anyone seeing severe similarities between this year and Black Cheltenham, 2 years ago?

Duguib '10 = Sprinter Sacre '12 - Superstar novice who many can see dominating their division for years to come. Have swept apart competition with ease so far, although there is one nagging doubt about the horse. May go off odds on early on day 1 and many people's bankers.

Masterminded '10 = Hurricane Fly '12 - The reigning champion has had an interrupted prep but came back to form last time out on their comeback run with a very impressive victory. Widely regarded as the best in their division and will probably go off at odds on at the festival.

Big Bucks '10 = Sizing Europe '12- A somewhat surprise winner last year, but the reigning champion has been in great form all season. There seems to be very little credible competition in their race. Many people's banker for the week.

Kauto Star '10 = Big Bucks '12 - Another reigning champion who has looked unbeatable in 3 starts this season. A firm favorite with punters at this stage. A few new competitors and a few old foes in opposition, but little expected to trouble Paul Nicholls champion.

Well all saw what happened in 2010 with 3 of the 4 bankers being beaten! Here's hoping it doesnt happen this year. Should be remembered though that back before the 2010 festival those 4 horses looked every bit as bombproof as this years crop do

UrbanSea

Here's hoping Binocular passes The Fly coming up the hill under the champ

supernova84

UrbanSea wrote: »

Here's hoping Binocular passes The Fly coming up the hill under the champ

Would love to see that aswell, stranger things have happened!

Winning Ways Racing

No matter how much water they put on it, the ground is going to be very quick by the end of the week. While the ground has not been desparate through the winter, it will be much quicker at Cheltenham. I'd be focused on big priced horses with quick ground form, form at previous festivals or breeding to suggest quicker ground will suit. For example, Moon Dice could fit the bill. Up The Beat is another. I'll be taking a close look at the form from Leopardstown at Christmas where the ground was pretty quick.

Hoofer

Winning Ways Racing wrote: »

No matter how much water they put on it, the ground is going to be very quick by the end of the week. While the ground has not been desparate through the winter, it will be much quicker at Cheltenham. I'd be focused on big priced horses with quick ground form, form at previous festivals or breeding to suggest quicker ground will suit. For example, Moon Dice could fit the bill. Up The Beat is another. I'll be taking a close look at the form from Leopardstown at Christmas where the ground was pretty quick.

and First Lieutenant:)

Mouse's latest update

"Everything is good with him and if he's sound he'll be running in the RSA," he said.

"I think he's always been a horse who has looked like he wants three miles on good ground over fences. Last year he was only just getting going after the last.

"If you look in the formbook it usually says about him 'doing best work at finish' and I hope it's the same again.

"I just wish they'd ease off with that watering a bit."

Nulty

Blackstairmountain in the Arkle. Will love the good ground, despite the watering. It is what it is.....50s on betfair is a very decent price win, lose or draw. Definitely haven't seen the best of him.

UrbanSea

Would be very very surprised to see him finish in the first six Nulty.

jimjamcos

Winning Ways Racing wrote: »

No matter how much water they put on it, the ground is going to be very quick by the end of the week. While the ground has not been desparate through the winter, it will be much quicker at Cheltenham. I'd be focused on big priced horses with quick ground form, form at previous festivals or breeding to suggest quicker ground will suit. For example, Moon Dice could fit the bill. Up The Beat is another. I'll be taking a close look at the form from Leopardstown at Christmas where the ground was pretty quick.

Really interested in Moon Dice for County Hurdle myself. Was told by people who know a jockey that rides out for Flynn that a massive run was expected in Greatwood Handicap Hurdle. While he finished 4th, I thought that was a great run given the trouble he found in running wide. Just noticed the 20/1 from a few weeks back is well and truly gone. Annoyed I missed it! 12's still represents value in my opinion though!

Luap

UrbanSea wrote: »

Here's hoping Binocular passes The Fly coming up the hill under the champ

You heard it first here folks. :pac:

jimjamcos

Maloney_o9 wrote: »

You heard it first here folks. :pac:

Aye. He'll be passing The Fly alright...to leave the track as the Champ salutes the acclaim of the crowd in the stands!!! Apart from that, he'll just have to watch his derriere like everyone else! :P

Nulty

Winning Ways Racing wrote: »

No matter how much water they put on it, the ground is going to be very quick by the end of the week. While the ground has not been desparate through the winter, it will be much quicker at Cheltenham. I'd be focused on big priced horses with quick ground form, form at previous festivals or breeding to suggest quicker ground will suit. For example, Moon Dice could fit the bill. Up The Beat is another. I'll be taking a close look at the form from Leopardstown at Christmas where the ground was pretty quick.

Abergavenny in the County/Coral/Pipe races will want it very dry. I'm quite disheartened by his last performance finishing 9th in the Betfair Hurdle but there was plenty of money around for him that day. Waiting to see what he goes in and what he's up against.

Divers is another that wants it very dry. Both of these look very well handicapped

Winning Ways Racing

Nulty wrote: »

Divers is another that wants it very dry. Both of these look very well handicapped

All depends who rides him. Is Lee out for Cheltenham? This horse takes plenty of knowing.

Juwwi

Noble Prince is another who will be happy on good ground.
Proven festival form aswell I fancy him to win the Ryanair.

Hulk Hands

Winning Ways Racing wrote: »

All depends who rides him. Is Lee out for Cheltenham? This horse takes plenty of knowing.

Delighted Lee is out because he cost Divers the Paddy Power by giving the rest lenghts at the start. He did the same even worse at Cheltenham last year but thankfully the horse was still good enough to win

slaneylad

Nulty wrote: »

Blackstairmountain in the Arkle. Will love the good ground, despite the watering. It is what it is.....50s on betfair is a very decent price win, lose or draw. Definitely haven't seen the best of him.

Patrick said at a preview night tonight that blackstairsmountain wont handle the track. he seemed genuine about that aswell. he said he rides scotsirish in the cross country but he wouldnt rule out uncle junior. niall madden said he thinks uncle junior would win it

Winning Ways Racing

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Delighted Lee is out because he cost Divers the Paddy Power by giving the rest lenghts at the start. He did the same even worse at Cheltenham last year but thankfully the horse was still good enough to win

Mercer was dreadful on him next time out. He is a horse that does take knowing as his jumping is unsure. He can be brilliant, or too low. I thought Lee was good on him last year. Up the inside, take your time, if he jumps he will be there with a chance.

Nulty

slaneylad wrote: »

Patrick said at a preview night tonight that blackstairsmountain wont handle the track. he seemed genuine about that aswell. he said he rides scotsirish in the cross country but he wouldnt rule out uncle junior. niall madden said he thinks uncle junior would win it

I saw his old man saying mostly the same thing on the ATR interview with the voice. Willie thinks he might be better on a flatter track. He could end up being a nice price for Punchestown too. I'm not that bothered, I only had a nibble on him at 46/1. I can afford to lose at that price. I still think that's a good price for him.

Winning Ways Racing wrote: »

Mercer was dreadful on him next time out. He is a horse that does take knowing as his jumping is unsure. He can be brilliant, or too low. I thought Lee was good on him last year. Up the inside, take your time, if he jumps he will be there with a chance.

McCoy has the ride. We'll see how that pans out! I know McCoy thinks the horse is well handicapped and he went looking for the ride. He was a bet at 16s-14s but 9/1 now not so much....I would want to see what he is facing but I could probably still go in at 9/1