Triumph Hurdle

Tobarcormick

Whats the big deal about this Minsk horse, how can he be 6-1 for the triumph without ever running over hurdles. He races this Sat in Fairyhouse. Will he even win there?What price is he likely to be.

RichieLawlor

He runs very fast

hucklebuck

Baby Mix

Tobarcormick wrote: »

Whats the big deal about this Minsk horse, how can he be 6-1 for the triumph without ever running over hurdles. He races this Sat in Fairyhouse. Will he even win there?What price is he likely to be.

He confortably won the Irish Cesarewitch. Dessie Hughes got him off John Oxx for the Triumph and apparently he has taken to hurdles like a duck to water. The plan is then to give him back to John Oxx for a tilt at the Irish Ledger and The Melbourne Cup.

Simply put he is a very very quick horse who can jump hurdles.

Tobarcormick

Is there a general consensus he'll win the triumph?

If he s so good why does nt he run against the fly?

ipitydafool

Tobarcormick wrote: »

Is there a general consensus he'll win the triumph?

If he s so good why does nt he run against the fly?

The general consensus as explained above is that he has a great chance but as is always the case with the Triumph hurdle there are quite a number of horses with prospects in it.Adding to the hype surrounding Minsk apart from his excellent flat background and schooling reports from home is the fact Dessie Hughes has been quoted as saying Minsk could be one of the best horses hes ever trained.

The second part of your post is so stupid it doesnt even deserve a response.

Tobarcormick

If he s that good on the flat, he'd have a great chance against hurricane fly

hucklebuck

Baby Mix

Tobarcormick wrote: »

If he s so good why does nt he run against the fly?

Because his minimum trip is 2m1f, 2m 1/2f is just too quick for him:pac:

Tobarcormick

But Minsk has won at 1m 4furlongs, i wonder what price he ll go off sat,

Going to do a f/c of him and darroun

Denners.ie

Tobarcormick wrote: »

Is there a general consensus he'll win the triumph?

If he s so good why does nt he run against the fly?

A little over the top and un-called for comment from ipitydafool. Minsk is a juvenile Tobar, they don't run against seasoned pro's like Hurricane fly. Hurricane fly is far more advanced in his horse racing career at this stage to put it in lay-mans terms.

hucklebuck

Baby Mix

Tobarcormick wrote: »

But Minsk has won at 1m 4furlongs, i wonder what price he ll go off sat,

Going to do a f/c of him and darroun

Yeah but that was a flat race on very quick ground, Cheltenham will probably be Good or Good/Soft and they won't go as fast so using the formula below 2m1f looks optimum for him.

A friend of mine is a statistician and he calculated if a horse has won a mid distance flat race you add 40% to get his minimum trip over hurdles and allow an extra 1% for slower ground per description. In this instance GF to Gd is 1%, GF to GS is 2% and so on.

In this example Minsk won a flat race on GF over 12 Furlongs, therefore

12 + 42% (40% + 2%) = 17.04 furlongs = 2m1f. - GS ground
12 + 41% (40% +1%) = 16.92 = 2m1f - GD ground.

:pac::pac::pac:

He will probably be odds on for Saturday.

I hope this helps

Tobarcormick

Does anyone think Darroun is any use and good potentially win on sat?

windy bee

Yes Darroun is a good horse, he quickened well the last day to beat a good horse in Hisaabaat who has since won. Darroun is another very useful Rich Ricci type, one we are now accustomed to.

Will he win Saturday ? Lets put it this way, if he does then he is Ireland's leading hope in the Triumph. He will have to beat the hype-horse Minsk (who is potentialy brilliant) and Bat Masterson (who I like a lot) and maybe Ut De Sivola who is also declared.

The 4yo hurdle on Saturday at Fairyhouse is one of the best this year, I expect Minsk to win based on what I know about the horse but Darroun could be anything.

Tobarcormick

i think Darroun is seriously overpriced for the triumph nad expect him to win on Sat. Will be backing him and covering bet with minsk-darroun f/c


****e darroun is nt running, race does nt look half as good with ut de sivola not running either

supernova84

Other

It's good to see Bryan Cooper on board. I hope they leave him on for Chelt and give the lad a good chance to get his first festival winner! I know Dessie likes Cooper but I guess it's barry connell who will decide. Be surprised though if they go for a big name jockey, I think Cooper has s bit of class!

Rhinestone Cowboy

Adonis is on in Kempton today. Winner has come out of that race for last two years. Bino, Punjabi and Well Chief won it too. You'd want to be looking at that as well as Minsk.

RichieLawlor

What have they been schooling Minsk over, Jesus he jumped awful there, really awful

prettyboy81

Sadler's Risk

RichieLawlor wrote: »

What have they been schooling Minsk over, Jesus he jumped awful there, really awful

True & sure who have they been schooling him with....maybe just a flat horse & Dessie Hughes got it wrong!!! Triumph market all over the place after 2 races today Dildar & Sadliers Risk beaten by Baby Mix....

supernova84

Other

Wasn't a terrible run in the scheme of things. I still wouldn't rule him out. A quicker pace and better ground at Cheltenham will suit. The Triumph looks wide open now!

Morgans

Awful run given the hype. Those who were backing him blind at the prices before the run will surely have learned a lesson.

UrbanSea

Sadler's Risk

I fancied Baby Mix today. His run last time out just had to be too bad to be true, really left a good impression beating Hinterland

ft9

Sadler's Risk

Minsk out to 12's with PP after today's defeat.

I didn't get to see it, how did it pan out.

Seem's a massive disappointment after all the hype.

Will Minsk even go to Cheltenham now?

RichieLawlor

ft9 wrote: »

Minsk out to 12's with PP after today's defeat.

I didn't get to see it, how did it pan out.

Seem's a massive disappointment after all the hype.

Will Minsk even go to Cheltenham now?

Barry Connell says he definitly goes to Cheltenham

slaneylad

Pearl Swan

i think saddlers risk will be much improved for todays run. and i think the hill will be a big help. saying that i cant rule out nicholls

Goldcupfav

Minsk as big as 16's with some firms. Like Hisaabaat at 16s for this think he is improving with each race and was impressed by him at Leopardstown the last day. Blinkers look to have improved him on the flat looking at his form and they seem to of had the same effect over hurdles last time.

hucklebuck

Baby Mix

ft9 wrote: »

Minsk out to 12's with PP after today's defeat.

I didn't get to see it, how did it pan out.

Seem's a massive disappointment after all the hype.

Will Minsk even go to Cheltenham now?

I only caught the end of the race(last two hurdles), he was travelling ok but looked quite green, looked like he wants quicker ground but from the two hurdles I saw he ballooned.

Needs huge improvement to place from what I saw.

Hulk Hands

At this stage Balder Success for me, have been very taken by his performances. Going to wait until the day though and see how it looks then.

convert

I've merged the thread on Minsk with the recently started thread re the Triumph Hurdle...

newuser89

Dodging bullets ran a cracker
And will improve for his first run over hurdles
Very keen early on so a gd pace will suit him

Huntley

Pearl Swan

I mentioned last week that horses who run over 2 miles on the flat tend to be too slow for 2 mile hurdles. Unless Minsk finds another gear he simply won't be quick enough for the Triumph.

supernova84

Other

Huntley wrote: »

I mentioned last week that horses who run over 2 miles on the flat tend to be too slow for 2 mile hurdles. Unless Minsk finds another gear he simply won't be quick enough for the Triumph.

All I'll say to that is Istabraq

Huntley

Pearl Swan

supernova84 wrote: »

All I'll say to that is Istabraq

You have given me one example of a superstar.

Are you disputing that horses who run over 2 miles on the flat generally tend to be too slow for 2 miles hurdles?

supernova84

Other

Huntley wrote: »

supernova84 wrote: »

All I'll say to that is Istabraq

You have given me one example of a superstar.

Are you disputing that horses who run over 2 miles on the flat generally tend to be too slow for 2 miles hurdles?

I'm sure there are plenty more examples aswell so can't really agree with you on that one

Huntley

Pearl Swan

supernova84 wrote: »

I'm sure there are plenty more examples aswell so can't really agree with you on that one

I don't have the time to go through horses either but it is generally the case that 2 milers on the flat need more than 2 miles over hurdles.

Pj!

Minsk won't be going to Cheltenham.

Has an infection, found after his Fairyhouse run.

liamoreilly

...Slightly off topic...I did a double awhile ago with sprinter sacre and Minsk...It was well before nrnb, does the stake go to a single on sprinter or is my money up my arse???...

UrbanSea

Sadler's Risk

You lost your money sorry

superfurry1

Baby Mix

Grumetti for me king thinks its his best juvenile in a long long time and is on fire at the moment.

hucklebuck

Baby Mix

Morgans wrote: »

Awful run given the hype. Those who were backing him blind at the prices before the run will surely have learned a lesson.

Got out of jail good auld Bet365, got suck in before the race and already got my cash back.

I was tempted to back Baby Mix(Baby Run if your name is Urban!!) yesterday but his last run put me off, looked like the original Baby Mix yesterday.

Think I will back Grumeti or Baby Mix for this.

ipitydafool

yesterday was certainly an interesting day for this race. Pity Minsk out of the NH game till next season, hopefully we will get to see more of him on the track as a novice hurdler:) I quite like the look of GE's Shadow Catcher and is good value at in around 20-1 for the race. Stayed on strongly when beating Darroun on his first start and I think Davy Condon hit the front too soon on it lto and it also didnt jump the last well. Considering Darroun previously bet Hisaabaat id be confident he would reverse the form at Cheltenham. I'm also hoping Paul Carberry is back on board and gives it a well timed ride.

convert

Pj! wrote: »

Minsk won't be going to Cheltenham.

Has an infection, found after his Fairyhouse run.

Here's an article about it:

Minsk to miss Cheltenham with infection after Fairyhouse flop

RACING: THE FORMER ante-post Triumph Hurdle favourite Minsk is out of Cheltenham after being diagnosed with a throat infection yesterday and instead will have a Classic aim on the flat later this year.

Owner Barry Connell nominated the Irish St Leger in September as a target for the 2011 Cesarewitch winner who will return to John Oxx for a Flat campaign before going back to Dessie Hughes next winter.

Minsk was beaten on his first start over jumps at Fairyhouse on Saturday, after which he drifted out to double figures in ante-post betting for the Triumph Hurdle.

But his trainer Dessie Hughes reported yesterday: “He was a bit disappointing so we had him scoped when we got home and found he has an inflamed throat. It’s the start of an infection. His lungs were clean but he’s starting to get a cold and the vet said there’s no way he could finish the race with that.

“He can’t go to Cheltenham now. He has to go on antibiotics and it will take a good two weeks to clear it up. There’s no way he can get to the Triumph Hurdle, unfortunately. I’d say we’d leave him now and keep him as a novice for next season.”

However, Minsk will be kept busy after Connell indicated a Group One target later in 2012.

“The plan is the Irish Leger. He will likely have one or two races before that but it would be a great race to go for and he is not exposed on the Flat,” he reported.

“After that he’ll return to Dessie Hughes as a novice and will be aimed at the better races over two and two and a half miles. I’ve been very pleased with his attitude and how he has schooled. There is much to look forward to,” said Connell.

mccarte2

ipitydafool wrote: »

yesterday was certainly an interesting day for this race. Pity Minsk out of the NH game till next season, hopefully we will get to see more of him on the track as a novice hurdler:) I quite like the look of GE's Shadow Catcher and is good value at in around 20-1 for the race. Stayed on strongly when beating Darroun on his first start and I think Davy Condon hit the front too soon on it lto and it also didnt jump the last well. Considering Darroun previously bet Hisaabaat id be confident he would reverse the form at Cheltenham. I'm also hoping Paul Carberry is back on board and gives it a well timed ride.

I believe this will be the case from someone who knows someone who spoke with someone who heard from someone who told someone who read it somewhere.....

Seriously though, Carberry should ride and the stable really think highly of him.

Slattsy

Baby Mix

Grumeti for me.

I'm on at 16s and went in again on Friday before his run at the weekend and me up some 10s.

Huntley

Pearl Swan

mccarte2 wrote: »

Seriously though, Carberry should ride

He hasn't been riding because he broke his collarbone skiing and had a problem with his shoulder. He is riding out again and should be back by the weekend.

mccarte2

Huntley wrote: »

He hasn't been riding because he broke his collarbone skiing and had a problem with his shoulder. He is riding out again and should be back by the weekend.

Yes, "skiing"

Huntley

Pearl Swan

mccarte2 wrote: »

Yes, "skiing"

He was injured, the relevance of how it happened isn't high on the agenda.

You can stop insinuating that you know something that I don't though.

mccarte2

Huntley wrote: »

He was injured, the relevance of how it happened isn't high on the agenda.

You can stop insinuating that you know something that I don't though.

Woah boy, relax. I don't believe the story that he was injured skiing, simple as that. As you say it's not all the relevant and it'll be good to have him back for Cheltenham.

Huntley

Pearl Swan

"After that he’ll return to Dessie Hughes as a novice and will be aimed at the better races over two and two and a half miles."

No surprise that they are thinking he needs more than 2 miles. The horse is much ado about nothing.

tomdillon2012

have a strong feeling Darroun is going to be pricewise selection for triumph hurdle tomorrow @ 16-1. If anyone wants to get on before resultant price drop

tonic wine

tomdillon2012 wrote: »

have a strong feeling Darroun is going to be pricewise selection for triumph hurdle tomorrow @ 16-1. If anyone wants to get on before resultant price drop

What made you think pw was going to put him up?

Good call btw.

UrbanSea

Sadler's Risk

Grumeti was found to be lame today. King reckons he should be fine in two days, still not good news.

tomdillon2012

just a horse I've been follwing all year, and saw on the racing post website that the triumph pricewise selection was a 16-1 shot that won on leopardstown last on soft ground-open to improvement. Mullins is being quite coy about that horse, 120,000 ricci purchase, ran the fastest 2 miles of any four year old this year on soft ground in January. A race which he ran from the front the whole way and did nt jump that fluidly, showed nice tough attitude when quickened at the end aswell against Hisabbaath, race time faster than grade one which Hisabaath won on better ground

also very same type background as Zarkandar, from aga khan stable, graded winner over 1m4f, will stay nicely up the hill IMO, and prefer faster ground.

Mullins has also said that he still had improvement left in him, and has improved- not giving too much away- rubi and him also had no negatives at preview night about him.

would nt be surprised if Rubi takes the ride.

Only horse I see beeting him is sadlers risk/grumeti/

shadow catcher wont stay