Betting Strategies

kingsenny

I'm not sure if there is a thread already on this topic... But what type of strategies do you use?

I'm only a n00b gambler so I've started with backing the favourite to win and the e/w on an outsider with half a chance (say anything from 6/1 to 20/1).

Usually I either make a small profit/loss but nothing major. Any tips?

ft9

Probably best to ask http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/forumdisplay.php?f=684 in the Gambling forum

Imhof Tank

kingsenny wrote: »

I'm not sure if there is a thread already on this topic... But what type of strategies do you use?

I'm only a n00b gambler so I've started with backing the favourite to win and the e/w on an outsider with half a chance (say anything from 6/1 to 20/1).

Usually I either make a small profit/loss but nothing major. Any tips?

Here's a tip for you - quit now before you get the bug. Your strategy is every bookies dream.

Alternativly, if do you want to punt for gain and not be a mug, specialise, read everything you can, study trainers trends. It will take you many years, but if you are one of the 5% of punters with the necessary patience and discipline, then you may stand a chance of getting ahead.

Colonel Sanders

One word "value". Never place a bet unless you feel the odds you are being offered are greater than what you believe the true odds to be. I think I'm (badly!) quoting Dave Nevison but if you only backed the horses you'd thought would win you'd be broke in no time.

Colonel Sanders

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

One word "value". Never place a bet unless you feel the odds you are being offered are greater than what you believe the true odds to be. I think I'm (badly!) quoting Dave Nevison but if you only backed the horses you'd thought would win you'd be broke in no time.

As an example, I'm betting on the toss of a fair coin. Luckily for punters I'm not a very good bookmaker.

I price heads at 4/6 & tails at 11/10

2 punters have a bet. One takes the 4/6 as he has a "feeling" heads will come up. The other is a proper punter & has a chunk on tails at 11/10.

Heads comes up & the 4/6 punter is all full of I told you so's

Needless to say eventhough he lost the punter betting tails at 11/10 is the better judge

mccarte2

kingsenny wrote: »

I'm not sure if there is a thread already on this topic... But what type of strategies do you use?

I'm only a n00b gambler so I've started with backing the favourite to win and the e/w on an outsider with half a chance (say anything from 6/1 to 20/1).

Usually I either make a small profit/loss but nothing major. Any tips?

Save your money for Punchestown and Galway. Back every Willie Mullins horse in Punchestown and every Dermot Weld horse in Galway.

Watch with delight as you roar home a 4/6 shot along with everyone around you while us mug punters give out about all these lads backing trainers blind and managing to win money.

UrbanSea

mccarte2 wrote: »

Save your money for Punchestown and Galway. Back every Willie Mullins horse in Punchestown and every Dermot Weld horse in Galway.

Watch with delight as you roar home a 4/6 shot along with everyone around you while us mug punters give out about all these lads backing trainers blind and managing to win money.

Worst strategy ever

mccarte2

UrbanSea wrote: »

Worst strategy ever

Should I have put a *denotes sarcasm beside the post to be clear?

UrbanSea

Haha sorry I only read the first line

meriwether

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

One word "value". Never place a bet unless you feel the odds you are being offered are greater than what you believe the true odds to be. I think I'm (badly!) quoting Dave Nevison but if you only backed the horses you'd thought would win you'd be broke in no time.

Yes, but he also backs horses (or did) that he does not feel will win, but who'se odds are overpriced.

I think he has a 15% threashold for quality, consequently, he could back a 100/1 shot he feels should be a 66/1 shot in a race.

I find that aspect of his strategy strange.

CageWager

One of the main concepts a new gambler who wants to be profitable needs to get their head around is that of long run expected value. When I back a horse, the result of that one race means nothing to me. As long as Ive made a correct mathematical play at the odds offered based on my research and knowledge of the horse/game/player I will be profitable in the long run.

To use a simplified and exagerated example, take a horse going off at 4/1 with a stake of €10. Mathematically if the race is run 5 times, it should win once {€10x4=€40 profit) and lose 4 times {€10 x 4= €40 loss} so you would break even over 5 races.

Now lets say I feel based on my research that this horse is more likely to win 2 out of 5 races. I still get paid 4/1 so I win 2 times {€10 x 4=€40 x 2= €80} and I lose €10 3 times {€10 x 3=€30 loss} adding up to a total profit of €50.

Now the key is, on any given raceday, If the horse wins I dont think, "I won €40" or if it loses I dont think " I lost $10". Each time I make that bet I see that as a €10 profit - {€50 profit divided over 5 races = $10 profit per race}

If you understand this concept- that no one race is important and that overall long term strategy will win out if you make enough good decisions- then your well on your way to being profitable.

Of course you still have to do the hard part and handicap races properly and seek out value but the first port of call is to have the correct mathematical strategy in place.

Nulty

CageWager wrote: »

One of the main concepts a new gambler who wants to be profitable needs to get their head around is that of long run expected value. When I back a horse, the result of that one race means nothing to me. As long as Ive made a correct mathematical play at the odds offered based on my research and knowledge of the horse/game/player I will be profitable in the long run.

To use a simplified and exagerated example, take a horse going off at 4/1 with a stake of €10. Mathematically if the race is run 5 times, it should win once {€10x4=€40 profit) and lose 4 times {€10 x 4= €40 loss} so you would break even over 5 races.

Now lets say I feel based on my research that this horse is more likely to win 2 out of 5 races. I still get paid 4/1 so I win 2 times {€10 x 4=€40 x 2= €80} and I lose €10 3 times {€10 x 3=€30 loss} adding up to a total profit of €50.

Now the key is, on any given raceday, If the horse wins I dont think, "I won €40" or if it loses I dont think " I lost $10". Each time I make that bet I see that as a €10 profit - {€50 profit divided over 5 races = $10 profit per race}

If you understand this concept- that no one race is important and that overall long term strategy will win out if you make enough good decisions- then your well on your way to being profitable.

Of course you still have to do the hard part and handicap races properly and seek out value but the first port of call is to have the correct mathematical strategy in place.

And the beauty of all this is that I might think a price is not value when another person might think it is. The fact is we will never know if it is value or not. There are too many variables. Either you've got a talent for it or you don't. The proof is in the pudding.

UrbanSea

That's true. Value is more of an opinion.

For example, some people would never back odds on favourites, that said, I've seen plenty of odds on favourites who I still would consider as value

Colonel Sanders

UrbanSea wrote: »

That's true. Value is more of an opinion.

For example, some people would never back odds on favourites, that said, I've seen plenty of odds on favourites who I still would consider as value

Especially mid week.

Small stakes punters have a bias against short priced favourites meaning some of them are available at ridiculous value. Obviously when they get beat it hurts more than a 20/1 shot

Off the top of my head I think you'll struggle to find better value than the following horses all year:

Big Bucks in the Long Walk. 4/11 was briefly available in the morning

Oscar Whiskey on New Year's day. I' a decent bet at 1.74 and I think he touched bigger before the off

Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion, how this horse went 1.9+ I'll never know

sting60

mccarte2 wrote: »

Save your money for Punchestown and Galway. Back every Willie Mullins horse in Punchestown and every Dermot Weld horse in Galway.

Watch with delight as you roar home a 4/6 shot along with everyone around you while us mug punters give out about all these lads backing trainers blind and managing to win money.

rubbish.Can I explain back and lay. You cannot have a loss.I play and Im up 20,000e on the all weather in Enland this year .Very very easy easy.

Shane732

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Especially mid week.

Small stakes punters have a bias against short priced favourites meaning some of them are available at ridiculous value. Obviously when they get beat it hurts more than a 20/1 shot

Off the top of my head I think you'll struggle to find better value than the following horses all year:

Big Bucks in the Long Walk. 4/11 was briefly available in the morning

Oscar Whiskey on New Year's day. I' a decent bet at 1.74 and I think he touched bigger before the off

Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion, how this horse went 1.9+ I'll never know

i totally agree with this.

The idea of value is a concept that can result in your losing your shirt. Just because a horse is odds on doesn't mean he's value.

As Sanders as pointed out above some of the best "value" horses have been odds on this season. Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion was just insane - thank God for best odds guaranteed!

Quevega in last years Mares race is another example.

R0UF

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Big Bucks in the Long Walk. 4/11 was briefly available in the morning

Oscar Whiskey on New Year's day. I' a decent bet at 1.74 and I think he touched bigger before the off

Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion, how this horse went 1.9+ I'll never know

Any outstanding value losers so far this year?

Colonel Sanders

R0UF wrote: »

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Big Bucks in the Long Walk. 4/11 was briefly available in the morning

Oscar Whiskey on New Year's day. I' a decent bet at 1.74 and I think he touched bigger before the off

Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion, how this horse went 1.9+ I'll never know

Any outstanding value losers so far this year?

Loads

Take the Coin toss example. You've a 50% chance of losing if you punt tails at 11/10. You'll lose plenty of times but as long as you continually get better odds than you should you'll profit in the long run

The winners stick in your mind more than the losers. Certainly a few soccer bets I can think of that looked outstanding value on the stats (and the price still looks wrong with hindsight) that lost

mccarte2

sting60 wrote: »

rubbish.Can I explain back and lay. You cannot have a loss.I play and Im up 20,000e on the all weather in Enland this year .Very very easy easy.

I don't think you understand the point I was making in my post.

Explain away if you wish, I'm always interested in things that are very very easy easy.

takeone92

its a strategy taht has worked for a few years now so i dunno how you can say 'worst strategy'

takeone92

Lets be honest here!everyone loves the thrill of seeing the horse they backed romp home!but i think the best strategy for making money is to back outsiders!!More outsiders win then favourites obviously as there is usually 1 or two favoutires in a race and 7-8 outsiders etc. i understand people backing favourites in big races...Frankel,Big Bucks hurrican fly etc..as the are almost,almost sure things..if you can back a horse at 12/1 and be satisfied wehn it places its the same as having a 3/1 winner!peoples problem is they go after the thrill of coming first and this second or 3rd each way doesnt satisfy their need to win! Study the outsiders review their form and back each way for a few weeks and see how much you make!

hucklebuck

takeone92 wrote: »

More outsiders win then favourites obviously as there is usually 1 or two favoutires in a race and 7-8 outsiders etc.

What price would you consider to be an outsider?

The racing post have a good book called the tail end system, if you haven't read it you should get it.

premierstone

takeone92 wrote: »

Lets be honest here!everyone loves the thrill of seeing the horse they backed romp home!but i think the best strategy for making money is to back outsiders!!More outsiders win then favourites obviously as there is usually 1 or two favoutires in a race and 7-8 outsiders etc. i understand people backing favourites in big races...Frankel,Big Bucks hurrican fly etc..as the are almost,almost sure things..if you can back a horse at 12/1 and be satisfied wehn it places its the same as having a 3/1 winner!peoples problem is they go after the thrill of coming first and this second or 3rd each way doesnt satisfy their need to win! Study the outsiders review their form and back each way for a few weeks and see how much you make!

The bit in bold is one of the most basic mistakes punters make, it is in no way the same as a 3/1 winner - for example you have €20 @ 3/1 it wins, you collect €80, now for the 12/1 shot its €10 e/w and its placed you collect €40 (assuming 1/4 odds) that is a return of €40 from an outlay of €20, which is the same as an evens shot!

takeone92

That is a fair point but another mistake people make is including their original stake as winnings!id settle for an extra 2 places for the loss of 10-20 euro where a horse has to win but good point

takeone92

ive a simple theory really some races the favourites themseleves have good each way value due to the size of the race and the competition in the race!i use the word outsider as being an outsider based on odds not on chance...usually 6/1 upwards

UrbanSea

premierstone wrote: »

The bit in bold is one of the most basic mistakes punters make, it is in no way the same as a 3/1 winner - for example you have €20 @ 3/1 it wins, you collect €80, now for the 12/1 shot its €10 e/w and its placed you collect €40 (assuming 1/4 odds) that is a return of €40 from an outlay of €20, which is the same as an evens shot!

This is the reason I have stopped backing each way

HigginsJ

There is a very good book it was about a novice punter in Ireland backing for the flat season, think book is called "adding a zero".

In the book he interviews a pro punter and the topic of e/w betting comes up and he said that if 1/4 the odds he will back every horse at 3/1 or above e/w. It 's an interesting part of the book and is just a very different view from what you would expect from pro's regarding e/w betting.

Colonel Sanders

I love each way punting, especially the really bad each way races (from the bookies point of view)

Bookies are bound to offer certain terms each way, sometimes they offer enhanced terms.

Often the place part will be huge value compared to the place only market on Betfair. If this is not the case back the horse win only with the bookie and place only on Betfair

e.g. Grand Crus last year at Aintree. Was 4.9 to lay on Betfair and around 1.6 the place the night before. I lumped on each way 1/4 the odds (unlocking evs the place). Even laid some of my stake back when it shortened (think it started 3/1 but was obviously bigger on Betfair)

hucklebuck

HigginsJ wrote: »

he will back every horse at 3/1 or above e/w

I would even go ew on an 11/4 shot regardless of 1/5 or 1/4, if I think it is good enough to win and doesn't, it should place, if it does I retain at least 75% of my stake if it doesn't I am a ****ebox and deseve to lose both my win and place portion. - Tough love

takeone92

Ha thats madness.why bother, long run your losing money.You have to play to value.If your taking on odds of 11/4 just back the win

Healio

hucklebuck wrote: »

I would even go ew on an 11/4 shot regardless of 1/5 or 1/4, if I think it is good enough to win and doesn't, it should place, if it does I retain at least 75% of my stake if it doesn't

11/20 = 55%
11/16 = 69%

you are adding the 1 before fractioning the odds.

Colonel Sanders

takeone92 wrote: »

Ha thats madness.why bother, long run your losing money.You have to play to value.If your taking on odds of 11/4 just back the win

Let's say you bet an 11/4 shot ew. Assume 1/4 the odds. You're getting 1.69 the place part. Quite often the place only price is far shorter on the exchanges. So if that was the case you are getting value!

You can lay the place only price to be left with 11/4 win only & an arb or you can simply leave the bet run safe in the knowledge you've a bigger price the place than it should be

mccarte2

takeone92 wrote: »

Ha thats madness.why bother, long run your losing money.You have to play to value.If your taking on odds of 11/4 just back the win

You've stats to back that up I assume yeah? You back all your 11/4 shots to win and I'll back them e/w and lets see which one ends up in the poor house first.

tryfix

Have one decent bet on the horse you most fancy on the day, if you win you'll have a decent amount of money coming back to you. That's my strategy and I find it much more satisfying than having a load of smaller bets just for the sake of it. It's quite easy to find a horse that has a realistic chance of winning when you're not chasing the less fancied horses for the sake of the bigger odds.

I especially like taking on a false favourite ( a horse that IMO just shouldn't be as short in the betting as it is ) with the second or third favourite.

hucklebuck

Healio wrote: »

11/20 = 55%
11/16 = 69%

you are adding the 1 before fractioning the odds.

I wish I was, just lazy maths, worked 3/1 at 1/4 odds and left it at 75, forgot to consider a 1/5 is smaller!