G Elliott - today at Ayr (Monday 06/Feb)

MassDeb8r

I see that Gordon Elliott has a few nice runners today at Ayr.

In the first race Mae's Choice won by 9l last time out (albeit over 2m 4f) today's trip is 2m but I'd say she can give weight away to Lucia Bay and land the four-timer. Interesting to see Narjawa racing off a feather weight too in the same race. The filly was trained by John Oxx and won a maiden on Yielding to Soft going, getting lumps of weight off Mae's Choice but looking forward to seeing her over hurdles for the first time.

I prefer Dont Back Down in the second race, interesting to see Davy Russell has made the trip over just for this ride (Horse is a Gigginstown). I know Don't back down only won by a neck last time out in Fairyhouse but it was 24L back to the third. Gelding seems to like the soft ground too, Sidney Paget looks useful too but there's every indication he might not like it too soft and prefers a sounder surface (won first two races on Good to soft going, third last time out on heavy-ish ground).

Couldn't go near Eight Is My Number in the Novice Chase, only 3 runners all with similar form. He finished miles behind Blenheim Brook in a hurdle race at Perth but improved since. Think Lie Forrit will take this but I wouldn't back in the race.

Anyway good luck to Gordon and co. on an otherwise dreary Monday!

UrbanSea

I was looking at the second favourite in the first race

windy bee

Second favourite is getting 7lbs off Elliot's mare, think they go 4/5 and 7/4 in the betting, no action for me in it anyway, too close for the second favourite whos form reads 263321

Johner

Mae's Choice looks very progressive. My aul fellas friend actually bred and owns her. Chasing will be her game next season so anything over hurdles is a bonus. I know they are hoping to get a bit of black type somewhere this season.

UrbanSea

Didn't back either in the end. The worry for Mae's Choice would be the drop to two miles

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Didn't back either in the end. The worry for Mae's Choice would be the drop to two miles

That would be a worry alright, Elliot has said 3 miles will be her trip.

UrbanSea

And here comes the huuuuuuuuuuuuuge drift.

windy bee

Probably the best thing having no bet, gun to the head I'd stick with Mae's Choice but maybe she needs further than 2 miles, betting goes Mae's Choice 11/8 and 11/8 Lucia Bay

windy bee

Lucia Bay won it, made a mistake 3 out and then was better at the last 2, driven out to win by a couple of lengths.

Mae's Choice definitely needs further.

Narjawa will come on from that, made a few juvenile mistakes but looks a bridle horse, ran a solid third.

Ayr 1.30
1st 2 Lucia Bay 6-4
2nd 1 Mae's Choice (IRE) 5-4 F

Johner

windy bee wrote: »

Mae's Choice definitely needs further.

At her P2P win the jockey came back and said she needs every yard of the 3m trip. I think today it was obvious she isn't quick enough for 2m.

windy bee

It was a bit sharp for her alright, still I'd fancy her over the longer trip, nice fluid jumper and with a nice mares allowance she will should pick up a good graded race yet

windy bee

They are going Dont Back Down 2/1 and Sydney Paget 8/11 in the next, Condon said the ground was "gluey" after the first race

windy bee

A lot of late money came for Sydney Paget and he hacked up, Higgs Boson second.

Juwwi

Elliotts second runner drifts like a barge also and runs dreadful.

How these trainers get away with it I dont know.

mccarte2

robbie1977 wrote: »

Elliotts second runner drifts like a barge also and runs dreadful.

How these trainers get away with it I dont know.

Get away with what exactly? Is it his fault that all his horses running in the UK midweek are severly underpriced due to his record?

I was in a syndicate who sent a horse to him that ran in Catterick. It was priced up as favourite even though it had absolutely no form to speak of in Ireland. Drifted out as you'd expect and finished 4th. He can't control the opening or starting price of his horses.

windy bee

He drifted out to 11/4 which was massive, was beaten by 15L or more there, must have come unstuck in the ground or something.

We will see how his last runner Eight Is My Number goes now in the next, he's a winner on soft/heavy ground so maybe will make the trip over worthwhile

Juwwi

mccarte2 wrote: »

Get away with what exactly? Is it his fault that all his horses running in the UK midweek are severly underpriced due to his record?

I was in a syndicate who sent a horse to him that ran in Catterick. It was priced up as favourite even though it had absolutely no form to speak of in Ireland. Drifted out as you'd expect and finished 4th. He can't control the opening or starting price of his horses.

Its strange tho that when they drift badly they very rarely win.

I'd say his horses are underpriced because of his record with gambles more than his strike rate.
The bookies dont want to take a chance.

windy bee

Seeing as most SP's for smaller races originate on course bookies don't want to take chances. Elliot has a lot of quality horses going back and forth so it could be damage limitation.

Today isn't one of his red letter days though his last runner was beaten as Blenheim Brook dotted up:

Ayr 2.35
1st 1 Blenheim Brook (IRE) 7-2
2nd 2 Lie Forrit (IRE) evens F

So no winners out of the three races, suppose the tacky ground didn't help the cause. That's racing for you!

mccarte2

robbie1977 wrote: »

Its strange tho that when they drift badly they very rarely win.

I'd say his horses are underpriced because of his record with gambles more than his strike rate.
The bookies dont want to take a chance.

I wouldn't say it's strange. He knows himself if the horses have a chance or not. If he tells the owner the horse is only out for a run (like most trainers will) then it's unlikely there'll be money for them and they'll drift. And the opposite if they're fancied, I don't find anything unusual about it at all.

The bolded bit above was the point I was trying to make in the last post, sorry if it came out differently!

Juwwi

mccarte2 wrote: »

I wouldn't say it's strange. He knows himself if the horses have a chance or not. If he tells the owner the horse is only out for a run (like most trainers will) then it's unlikely there'll be money for them and they'll drift. And the opposite if they're fancied, I don't find anything unusual about it at all.

The bolded bit above was the point I was trying to make in the last post, sorry if it came out differently!

This is what I meant with my original post.
Horses should'nt be just out for the run tho they should be trying 100% of the time.

premierstone

robbie1977 wrote: »

Elliotts second runner drifts like a barge also and runs dreadful.

How these trainers get away with it I dont know.

Get away with what?? Is Elliot now responsible for the tissue prices aswell, busy feckin man dont know where he gets time to train at all :rolleyes:

Juwwi

premierstone wrote: »

Get away with what?? Is Elliot now responsible for the tissue prices aswell, busy feckin man dont know where he gets time to train at all :rolleyes:

Premierstone do you think Elliotts horses run on their merits 100%
of the time to try and get their best possible finishing position?

premierstone

robbie1977 wrote: »

Premierstone do you think Elliotts horses run on their merits 100%
of the time to try and get their best possible finishing position?

Name me a trainer who does?? Horse training is considerably more complicated, have a look at Paul Nicholls comments re Zarkandar running in Newbury next week, more or less saying the horse wont be fully tuned and is using it as a prep race, it may annoy us as punters robbie but ultimately the trainer answers first and foremost to the owners.

Huntey

There is countless non-triers every week in horse racing, some yards are more frequent then others.

Make no mistake about it that the punter is the last person on most trainers minds.

hucklebuck

premierstone wrote: »

Name me a trainer who does?? Horse training is considerably more complicated, have a look at Paul Nicholls comments re Zarkandar running in Newbury next week, more or less saying the horse wont be fully tuned and is using it as a prep race, it may annoy us as punters robbie but ultimately the trainer answers first and foremost to the owners.

Sure they all do it but Nicholls is one of the few who will mark your card before you throw your money on it.

premierstone

hucklebuck wrote: »

Sure they all do it but Nicholls is one of the few who will mark your card before you throw your money on it.

Put a microphone in front of Nicholls and he will talk about anything you want

finbarrk

robbie1977 wrote: »

This is what I meant with my original post.
Horses should'nt be just out for the run tho they should be trying 100% of the time.

I'd say you never got a horse handicapped Rob?