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AFL DT: Breakout Players 2012

  • 02-02-2012 11:05am
    #1
    DoctorGonzo08
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,995 ✭✭✭


    Thought I might share some content on the AFL Dream Team from various sources to help new and old players in this years comp. So I decided to start with the mythological third year breakout players.

    So, how does the ‘breakout year’ happen to a player? Basically it happens when a player improves over pre-season training in strength, endurance, mental capacity, etc., or simply become confident enough to play some great football. When does this happen? Most experts insist it happens in their third season of playing Aussie Rules at the elite level.

    Taking last year for example, Tom Rockliff, Jack Redden & Liam Shiels were the big breakouts and were the difference in winning your league.

    So how can you predict (guess) who will emulate these feats this year? Well pre NAB Cup form, we have to rely on last years stats. Prodominatley breakout players usually begin to dominate towards the second half of their second year.

    Taking Jack Redden as an example: In his second year of AFL he had an average of around 68 points in rounds 1-11, not exceeding 100 in any of his games. In his round 12-22 performances he averaged about 90 points that’s a 22 point improvement on round 1-11 and an 11 point improvement on his yearly average of 79. He also scored above 100 five times and did not go below 50 once in these later rounds.

    So if we apply this theory to platers that played their second year this year (2011) then we could be able to determine who will breakout in their third year!

    breakout_table1.jpg

    This table can be found below and was created by PRo_MoE1144 for DTTALK. File can be found at the link below:

    http://dreamteamtalk.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/breakout_2012.xlsx

    So, in a nutshell, based on last years stats alone, you get the following players, ordered in their likelihood to breakout this year, as follows:
    1. Allen Christensen
    2. Jake Melksham
    3. Jack Trengove (Melb)
    4. Ben Howlett
    5. Tom Scully
    6. Mitch Duncan
    7. Ben Cunnington
    8. Jasper Pittard
    9. Gary Rohan
    10. Matthew Wright
    I will close with my personal choice, based on possible game time as well as two omissions due to the fact that they already 'brokeout' last year, so should be elite this year:
    1. Dustin Martin (RIC - MID/FWD - $442,500)
    2. Jake Melksham (ESS - MID - $344,400)
    3. Nathan Fyfe (FRE - MID/FWD - $486,600)


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