Six Nations 2012

Wishful Thinking

I see no thread started yet on the biggest & best events

What's peoples thoughts?

Ireland have been cut from 6/1 to a best price 9/2 after the provinces great displays recently.

Before people call me a patriotic mug I have only ever backed Ireland twice outright in my life for six nations

2007 when they were the bounce of a ball away & 2009 albeit after they beat France

And now I have done it again at 11/2.

I know they are missing BOD but they are in great shape everywhere else & kidney is obv not in blooding youth this year. He wants to win it outright to get a top seed in Decembers world cup draw & the lions job

We're meeting Wales at the right time(they're plagued with injuries) & even a defeat to France in Paris, France have to finish in Cardiff & will lose to a Qelsh side at full strength then

No great value spotted in top tryscorer market, fergus McFadden maybe at 66/1 if he got the start against Wales

Verdict
Ireland outright
No grand slam winner
England an interest bet for wooden spoon
Fergus McFadden top tryscorer at 66/1

ft9

France I think have Ireland and England in Paris.

I would find it hard to bet against them, very hard to beat in Paris.

the groutch

every year the draw suits one specific country, this year it's France's turn.
home againt England, Ireland, and Italy.
if they rack up a big total against Italy, they could have it in the bag before they even get to Cardiff.
even at 6/4 they are overpriced imo.

myflipflops

Bets so far:

Ireland for the Triple Crown at 9/2 with Centrebet.
Ireland -3 against Wales at 10/11

Coinsidering France from the Grand Slam if i can get 9/2 on Betfair.

Wishful Thinking

myflipflops wrote: »

Bets so far:

Ireland for the Triple Crown at 9/2 with Centrebet.
Ireland -3 against Wales at 10/11

Coinsidering France from the Grand Slam if i can get 9/ on Betfair.

That 9/2 looks a fair bet

4/7 to beat Wales
1/3 to beat Scotland
& depending what shape England are in by the last round but they've only beaten us once in 8 years & we can't lose to them on Paddies day, fair bet

BQQ

Wishful Thinking wrote: »

Ireland have been cut from 6/1 to a best price 9/2 after the provinces great displays recently.


We're meeting Wales at the right time(they're plagued with injuries) & even a defeat to France in Paris, France have to finish in Cardiff & will lose to a Qelsh side at full strength then

Agree that Ireland were overpriced at 6/1. Price looks about right, now.

Don't know why you think Wales will be at full strength when they play France. At the end of a 6 nations campaign, it's more likely that both sides will have injuries. France have more depth and can cope better, if that's the case.

Looking at the team StAndre has picked, it looks like a French slam. Ireland look like the only threat and, given our record in Paris, quite a minor threat.


Despite their improvement, Italy are still the worst team in the 6 nations.
Another wooden spoon for their collection.

Wishful Thinking

BQQ wrote: »

Wishful Thinking wrote: »

Ireland have been cut from 6/1 to a best price 9/2 after the provinces great displays recently.


We're meeting Wales at the right time(they're plagued with injuries) & even a defeat to France in Paris, France have to finish in Cardiff & will lose to a Qelsh side at full strength then

Agree that Ireland were overpriced at 6/1. Price looks about right, now.

Don't know why you think Wales will be at full strength when they play France. At the end of a 6 nations campaign, it's more likely that both sides will have injuries. France have more depth and can cope better, if that's the case.

Looking at the team StAndre has picked, it looks like a French slam. Ireland look like the only threat and, given our record in Paris, quite a minor threat.


Despite their improvement, Italy are still the worst team in the 6 nations.
Another wooden spoon for their collection.

I could be wrong but I think Roberts, lydiate, Rees, Priestland et all will be just back and will have one or two games under their belts & will be looking to end the campaign on a high

If Wales beat us on Sunday, they should be FAV's outright afterwards

premierstone

Wishful Thinking wrote: »

I could be wrong but I think Roberts, lydiate, Rees, Priestland et all will be just back and will have one or two games under their belts & will be looking to end the campaign on a high

If Wales beat us on Sunday, they should be FAV's outright afterwards

I really think you are very very much over estimating Wales, they are ordinary, one demensional, predictable and lack depth.

thebison

I'm on the Enhanced Priced Setantabet Specials

Ireland, France and Scotland all to win @ 7/2

According to their Twitter, its an "industry best price". Paddy is 5/2 on the same I think.

Can't believe Scotland aren't shorter TBH!

myflipflops

thebison wrote: »

I'm on the Enhanced Priced Setantabet Specials

Ireland, France and Scotland all to win @ 7/2

According to their Twitter, its an "industry best price". Paddy is 5/2 on the same I think.

Can't believe Scotland aren't shorter TBH!

That's a big price alright. Any idea what the max bet is? You could only bet to win 300 euro on their World Cup handicaps.

Canyon86

the paddy power handicap of ireland -3,england-3,france-21 aint bad?

just under 6/1!

Any opinons?

myflipflops

Canyon86 wrote: »

the paddy power handicap of ireland -3,england-3,france-21 aint bad?

just under 6/1!

Any opinons?

They are Ireland -5.

Davey Devil

Cheers for the heads up, that's a great bet for the weekend.

thebison wrote: »

I'm on the Enhanced Priced Setantabet Specials

Ireland, France and Scotland all to win @ 7/2

According to their Twitter, its an "industry best price". Paddy is 5/2 on the same I think.

Can't believe Scotland aren't shorter TBH!

Wishful Thinking

Reading rugby world, listening to loads of podcasts and every man & his dog is tipping Scotland to beat England

This was my initial opinion as well but I'm starting to worry myself when the whole world seems to think the same & wonder has any semblance of value gone from Scotland or is the fact everybody tipping them to win& they're odds against make them a cracking bet

I know the stats etc( not lost since 04 at home) but did you even the T Shirt mess up could play into Englands hands & the pressure if been expected to win won't sit well in Scottish shoulders

MassDeb8r

Ireland to beat Wales and Scotland and lump the winnings on France to win overall at whatever price is available!

#jobdone!

The Jman

Are Scotland actually any good or are people just backing them because they think England are that poor?

m0227021

France are 1/50 on PP to beat Italy, however with a 1pt headstart they are 1/33. Not often bookies confuse themselves.

Juwwi

The last 3 matches when Scotland have been at home against England in the 6 nations have had no try's.

Theres heavy rain forcast for tomorrow evening in Edinburgh aswell.

12/1 is best available now for no tryscorer it was 16/1 earlier in the week but its still worth an interest bet imo.

BQQ

robbie1977 wrote: »

The last 3 matches when Scotland have been at home against England in the 6 nations have had no try's.

Theres heavy rain forcast for tomorrow evening in Edinburgh aswell.

12/1 is best available now for no tryscorer it was 16/1 earlier in the week but its still worth an interest bet imo.

Good call. Just done in by a charged down kick. Unlucky!

Juwwi

BQQ wrote: »

Good call. Just done in by a charged down kick. Unlucky!

Thanks BQQ I taught at half time I had a good chance of winning .
it was a kick in the balls the way the try was scored alright.

magherakid

Tommy Bowe first try 10/1

fryup

7/1 on italy to win on sat

now that is very tempting

bren2002

Italy are 16 on Betfair at the moment. Very tempting, even if that does mean betting against Ireland.

Italy will beat the 15 point spread though. That's good value at 2.0

bren2002

bren2002 wrote: »

Italy are 16 on Betfair at the moment. Very tempting, even if that does mean betting against Ireland.

Italy will beat the 15 point spread though. That's good value at 2.0

I just threw a tenner on Italy there at 16. Will lay it off then closer to KO when the odds shorten.

Wishful Thinking

I think the lay off will do Ireland good and If Ireland have an aspirations of winning the title, Italy will need to be beaten severly

26points +

And I actually think they could win by said margin, looking for best way to back it though

Cant find a handicap of Ireland -26 or -28

Could back Ireland to win by 26-30 and Ireland to win by 31-35 but then if they win by 36+ I'll be raging with myself

Italy need a proper 10 and with Castrogiovanni out I can see Ireland laying it down big style

bren2002

Betfair have Ireland -26.5 @ 2.95

cgpg5

Italy on the handicap way to go. Ireland will never win by 15 I feel. England at 8/5 is a superb bet I feel, I see them beating Wales

BQQ

cgpg5 wrote: »

Italy on the handicap way to go. Ireland will never win by 15 I feel. England at 8/5 is a superb bet I feel, I see them beating Wales

I think England will win too. Wales have horrible record in Twickenham. Haven't won there since '88.

bren2002

Hmmm

Italy are still 16 on betfair, I'm still confident the odds will shorten at kick off.

Cartel Mike

I guess it's just harder for me to see England winning by 4 or more than it is Ireland loosing by 3 tomorrow.
I put €50 on Ireland +3 @ evs.

Sexton will need to make those peno kicks though as it may well come down to which kicker has the highest conversation rate I think.

Cartel Mike

awfull match and a bad loss there.