Aer Lingus weighs 737-9 Max alongside A320neo

Graham

Interesting:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/aer-lingus-weighs-737-9-max-alongside-a320neo-367493/

Any thoughts on which they'll go for? Personally I'd expect them to stick with Airbus.

Zonda999

Aer Lingus is the process of deciding whether it will opt for Airbus's re-engined A320neo family or Boeing's 737-9 Max to increase fuel-efficiency on its transatlantic flights.

I don't understand, EI is hardly going to be using either of those on its north american routes? Neither if those has ETOPS surely?

And in any case, why would it be comparing the 739MAX against the A320NEO, surely, its the A321NEO that should be in competition

ohigg84

Interesting indeed, also about the A350!
I would love to see EI going back to Boeing.
Wonder is EI interested in the 787 too, which coincided with the visit it made last week?

Any thoughts..?

Dacian

@zonda: I would put that statement down to a non-aviation inclined journo.

ohigg84 wrote: »

....Wonder is EI interested in the 787 too, which coincided with the visit it made last week?

Any thoughts..?

No.
The visit of the B787 will have not impact whatsoever on any EI decision on future fleet composition. These things are decided based on fuel burn/MTOW/range/MX cost. The decision is taken by accountants sitting at a desk and computer. Cold hard logic rather than appearances and emotion are in charge when you are talking about half a billion Euro orders.

EI switching to B787 longhaul/A320NEO shorthaul causes a lot of doubling in costs in their relatively small fleet. (7/36 respectively) Currently the airline enjoys some efficiencies from having all Airbus (crew training/engineer type rating/commonality in the ops manual etc) As the A350 is delivered from 2015,it will still keep some of these common areas with the A330 already in place. The A320NEO I expect to be even more similar to the exisiting A320 fleet.

So the B737MAX and/or B787 would have to deliver quite the cost savings to overcome the problem of operating 2/3 fleet types. Another factor is delivery slots. Changing fleets can be a chore but can be done quickly if you have the slots. Currently EI has 6 A350 for delivery within an 18 month timeframe, it would be hard for them to get B787 in a similar periods with all the waiting lists at present. (Whether EI accept delivery of all those 6 A350 is another matter)

L1011

"EI trying to ensure best price possible off Airbus" I suspect is a better headline.

ohigg84

Dacian wrote: »

@zonda: I would put that statement down to a non-aviation inclined journo.


No.
The visit of the B787 will have not impact whatsoever on any EI decision on future fleet composition. These things are decided based on fuel burn/MTOW/range/MX cost. The decision is taken by accountants sitting at a desk and computer. Cold hard logic rather than appearances and emotion are in charge when you are talking about half a billion Euro orders.

EI switching to B787 longhaul/A320NEO shorthaul causes a lot of doubling in costs in their relatively small fleet. (7/36 respectively) Currently the airline enjoys some efficiencies from having all Airbus (crew training/engineer type rating/commonality in the ops manual etc) As the A350 is delivered from 2015,it will still keep some of these common areas with the A330 already in place. The A320NEO I expect to be even more similar to the exisiting A320 fleet.

So the B737MAX and/or B787 would have to deliver quite the cost savings to overcome the problem of operating 2/3 fleet types. Another factor is delivery slots. Changing fleets can be a chore but can be done quickly if you have the slots. Currently EI has 6 A350 for delivery within an 18 month timeframe, it would be hard for them to get B787 in a similar periods with all the waiting lists at present. (Whether EI accept delivery of all those 6 A350 is another matter)

Well fleets can change.. I respect your opinion. I hope EI order the 737MAX. As for the 787, who knows.. I sure hope to see a few in the green livery.. More like wishful thinking..

roundymac

MYOB wrote: »

"EI trying to ensure best price possible off Airbus" I suspect is a better headline.

Not unless FR buy EI in the meantime.:(

Cessna_Pilot

I'll eat my words if Ryanair don't order the MAX and Aer Lingus the NEO. Eventually.

urajoke

ohigg84 wrote: »

Well fleets can change.. I respect your opinion. I hope EI order the 737MAX. As for the 787, who knows.. I sure hope to see a few in the green livery.. More like wishful thinking..

Aerlingus have already decided their long haul fleet it's the A350, I very much doubt they will do a Volte-face and order the 787. So stop dreaming it won't be seen in green.

As has already been said Aerlingus would need serious cost savings to go Boeing at this stage and for the reasons already given.

It would be very fool hardy of an airline to not check out the other options to see what's on offer before it made its final decision.

As for using them to go across the Atlantic, I'm sure its possible and better for the airline if they COULD make the hop to JFK/BOS occasionally when loads were low.

Continental fly the 757 with 175 seats Aerlingus currently fly the 320 with 174 seats (open for correction). Aerlingus would look for a more comfortable range out of the MAX or NEO and they would probably look at using it to the US.

basill

Its not just about the number of seats but about configuration. The two ex Iberia 320s that we got some years ago came with ETOPS approval. They would have been a perfect fit for SNN to the east coast. Put in some business class seats, premium economy and reduce the number down the back and it would have been a great fit for the schedule when a 330 is just to big. But alas no they sit back and do nought as the yanks come in with their tired old 757s cleaning up.

And in Dublin we now have EK putting on a 777 as it is one of their most spectacularly performing route launches ever.

You can go surmise all you like about 330s, 350s NEOs etc but I think the market will dictate to AL what it gets. As someone said earlier I think they will sell their slots on the 350s and net some cash and get some more 320s for the short haul routes. They will never go to Boeing. Growing the mid haul market is not even on managements agenda and with the influx of the global players into Ireland I can't see any scope for AL to do so even if there was some desire. A global alliance might have helped somewhat in terms of bringing inward travellers into Ireland but again management won't commit to this.

dubdaymo

. The two ex Iberia 320s that we got some years ago came with ETOPS approval. They would have been a perfect fit for SNN to the east coast.

On another Forum someone gave a detailed technical explanation as to why the A320 would not be capable of or suitable for this. Unfortunately, I can't find the link.

the yanks come in with their tired old 757s cleaning up

I'll bet some of the airlines are bitterly regretting not having any 757's (or disposing of the 757's they had) now that they're having to fly half empty 330's or 747's. I've always been surprised that Airbus never really had anything to match the 757.

jacquesbernis

Basill, no offense but if you think EI can compete with global players like EK and EY, you're way off.
They have global connectivity and are not run as a profit making businesses.
EI to DXB was to a dead end for pax who then had to buy a separate ticket with another outfit if they were traveling onwards.
The reason EI has a long haul fleet at all is wholly due to the American Diaspora.

maggy_thatcher

dubdaymo wrote: »

On another Forum someone gave a detailed technical explanation as to why the A320 would not be capable of or suitable for this. Unfortunately, I can't find the link.

British Airways do run an A318 between SNN and JFK daily (it originates in LCY, but stops in SNN for fuel and immigration), which has a comparable range to the A320...however I don't believe that it is a fully loaded aircraft. I don't think there'd be much of a market for an equivalent service directly from Ireland.

Mister Jingles

Threads like this make me wonder will we see the likes of the A310 again ? If still in production it would of being the perfect aircraft for EI on short and medium routes.

L1011

Mister Jingles wrote: »

Threads like this make me wonder will we see the likes of the A310 again ? If still in production it would of being the perfect aircraft for EI on short and medium routes.

Last A310 delivered in 1998.

Mister Jingles

MYOB wrote: »

Last A310 delivered in 1998.

I'm aware of that, I was referring to the idea of a small wide body.

dubdaymo

maggy_thatcher wrote: »

British Airways do run an A318 between SNN and JFK daily

Just to clarify. The explanation I mentioned was about the unsuitability of the A320 for a viable regular passenger service such as provided by the 757 (Delta, United, etc) as distinct from the 318 service which is only for the rich and (in)famous.

basill

Basill, no offense but if you think EI can compete with global players like EK and EY, you're way off

None taken but you miss my point. We don't want to compete with them we want to survive alongside them. You do that by being in things like airline alliances. For example if we were back in One World then AA wouldn't be here but instead we would be doing the route and taking advantage of their branding to fill the aircraft from the US into Ireland.

L1011

Mister Jingles wrote: »

I'm aware of that, I was referring to the idea of a small wide body.

I didn't comprehend what you expected "would of being" to mean and interpreted it as a question about whether it was still built.

"would have been" is what would make it correct.

Tenger

Mister Jingles wrote: »

I'm aware of that, I was referring to the idea of a small wide body.

I believe that this was mooted as a possible Boeing succesor to the B737. Not sure viable the idea is, or how far it was worked on.

jacquesbernis

Understood Basill. That could well be true but I'm sure your number crunchers have looked at the cost/benefit of joining an alliance versus forfeiting a relative monopoly on feeding into either lhr or ams. Same prob with utd v American. Basically I would see EI needing to protect its bread and butter feeder status rather than seeking the prestige that goes with being part of an alliance. It needs to be a promiscuous niche player, endowed with the slots. Just what it looks like from an objective viewpoint.

roundymac

maggy_thatcher wrote: »

British Airways do run an A318 between SNN and JFK daily (it originates in LCY, but stops in SNN for fuel and immigration), which has a comparable range to the A320...however I don't believe that it is a fully loaded aircraft. I don't think there'd be much of a market for an equivalent service directly from Ireland.

38 Business class passengers is the ball park figure.
If the A320 has etops why ar'nt other airlines using it.
I'v flow Delta out of SNN a couple of times and EI once. The majority of passengers on Delta were American, a lot of them on CIE bus tour packages, the majority of EI passengers were Irish. That says it all I think.

ohigg84

basill wrote: »

The two ex Iberia 320s that we got some years ago came with ETOPS approval.

EI ordered their own 320s, first two are if 2000 and 2001 vintage!

ohigg84

My interpretation of the outcome is that EI will become frustrated by delays of the A350 program, and will, in the interim, swap existing orders for the A350 to the A330, the A330 has more than adequately proved to be an exceptional aircraft.
In fact Airbus is now pitching another A330 version against the 787-10, the A330-300S!

So EI could be interested in this..

On the other hand, with airlines such as United/Continental deploying the 757 on transatlantic routes, I also think that EI could be seriously interested in the A321NEO, or the B737MAX.

As much as I prevoiusly stated that EI may go Boeing, I think they will stick with Aribus, unless Boeing does some serious discounting..

ohigg84

Sorry, Airbus.. Spelling mistake..

Bessarion

ohigg84 wrote: »

Basill-"The two ex Iberia 320s that we got some years ago came with ETOPS approval"

EI ordered their own 320s, first two are if 2000 and 2001 vintage!

Basill is referring to the 2 A320 EI added about 2-3 years ago. They were ex-Iberia, owned by a leasing company, had slightly different interiors and the regs are out of sequence with the rest of the EI fleet. (-EDS/-EDP) These 2 aircraft had ETOPS approval so could possibly be used across the Atlantic.
The current acquisition of the A319 is the from the same source.

ohigg84 wrote: »

My interpretation of the outcome is that EI will become frustrated by delays of the A350 program, and will, in the interim, swap existing orders for the A350 to the A330, .........
On the other hand, with airlines such as United/Continental deploying the 757 on transatlantic routes, I also think that EI could be seriously interested in the A321NEO, or the B737MAX.......

I don't see EI getting frustrated with any future delays. At present their A330 fleet is quite young so no rush to replace. Original delivery schedule is for six A350 to arrive between 2015/16. (Airbus recently announced a 2nd 6 month delay)
Already EI have converted 3 A330 orders to A350 deliveries 'no sooner than 2017' (Mentioned in 2011 Half year results) And while the A330 has served EI very well the lower running costs of the A350 combined with a greater capacity will give EI a better cost per seat mile ratio.

In regards to the newly announced A330-300S, lets see how that pans out in 4-5 years. This could allow EI to operate a mixed A350/A333S fleet from 2017 onwards. (A possibility mentioned by the CEO at the half year results)

And keep in mind that those B757 routes are going to disappear as these aircraft (which are no longer built) get older and get phased out. The B787 is partially a replacement for them. And while the B787 is a very capable and cost effective aircraft we may well see some of those routes no longer viable without the B752.

The only obvious reason for EI to use the A321NEO across the pond is to keep SNN T/A ops running year round. To manage this a minimum fleet of 3 would be needed. Big investment purely for a low yielding base, what do you do with the aircraft when demand is more than 200? (Twice daily A321NEO may actually be least cost effective than a once daily A330/A350) If you were EI why not use EI Regional to ferry the SNN/ORK/NOC pax to DUB to fill your shiny new A350 post 2015?


Please be aware that the BA A318 that does LCY-SNN-JFK is probably the smallest niche route in operation worldwide. (It links the 2 of the Worlds largest financial centres, no other market uses it. The model may work between LCY and DC/Boston but even those is uncertain) The aircraft has all J class 2-2 config and does not carry cargo and hardly any hold bags. Thus it is able to carry a lot more fuel than a current A320 family aircraft which operate more than 32 high level business pax.

Plowman

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ohigg84

Plowman wrote: »

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Doesn't Iraqi Airways still have 5 A310s on order still?

Didn't Airbus propose an A330-100 sometime ago?
It was aimed at replacing the A310 I think..
I remember reading something about that on Flight international, a good couple of years ago.

Plowman

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Mister Jingles

It was actually the A330-500 that was intended to be the replacement for the A310 but the plan was never put into action.

Had anyone any sources/links of the A330-300S ? Googled it but nothing seemed to be coming up other than the plural for A330.

Also, for anyone that has ever flown to Malaga on the A330, do they fill all seats ?

ohigg84

Plowman wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

Ah yeah, it was 2007 that the last A300 was produced for Fedex, so this closed the A300/A310 production line.

I really like A310s though, really pretty aircraft!

L1011

ohigg84 wrote: »

Doesn't Iraqi Airways still have 5 A310s on order still?

"In July 2008, Airbus sales chief John Leahy ordered the deal removed from its backlog in response to an inquiry from Reuters about the long-forgotten deal at the 2008 Farnborough Airshow."

That is from wikipedia so it could easily be utter bollox.

Tenger

Mister Jingles wrote: »

Had anyone any sources/links of the A330-300S ? Googled it but nothing seemed to be coming up other than the plural for A330.

Here is the link in French:
http://www.latribune.fr/entreprises-finance/industrie/aeronautique-defense/20120130trib000681237/airbus-veut-doper-les-performances-de-son-a330-.html

And here is the thread on airliners.net where it is translated and explained by a very knowledgeable poster called 'ferpe'.
The 'S' designation is his addition.
http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/5372476/


I doubt EI would put their A330 on the DUB-AGP unless they were going tp fill it, and looking at the fares for July already I would say it is quite busy. (Thats Malaga off the list of arrival points!)

Kapellmeister

Here seems to be the latest in the haggling stakes:

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/ryanair-offers-scathing-verdict-on-737-max-368895/


K.

basill

Airbus was not currently in the running, he said

Translation - Airbus will be more than happy to sell him aircraft at prevailing market rates. They have a nice full order book for the next 10 years. They do not need to sell him cheap airbus aircraft only for him to flog them off new and depress the 2nd hand market.

Good luck getting a cheap deal from Mr Boeing MOL.

zone 1

MOL has only himself to blame on a new deal for planes . id say he will head east and play china and russia of each other??

Suits

To buy Boeing would be a financial oddity for Aer Lingus. They enjoy the fact that they can quickly rate an a320 pilot to the 330 and even have some crew operate both in their schedule. Why would they waste money rating guys to fly boeing again and then having to shell out more time an effort for an airbus rating?

Skyhawk684

Suits wrote: »

To buy Boeing would be a financial oddity for Aer Lingus. They enjoy the fact that they can quickly rate an a320 pilot to the 330 and even have some crew operate both in their schedule. Why would they waste money rating guys to fly boeing again and then having to shell out more time an effort for an airbus rating?

+1.

Plowman

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Tenger

Plowman wrote: »

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You have to remember that the A350 has its roots in the Mannion as CEO era when quite a few misjudged decisions were made by EI mgmt. They suffered from the Celtic tiger illusion of unfettered growth.

At the time of the order it was for 6 A350-900 to follow the existing order of 8 A330 just being delivered (2007 onwards) EI took delivery of 4-5 of these before converting the last 3 A330 (planned delivery in 2012-13) to A350 units (no earlier than 2017)

[EI replaced their 3 B747 with 5 A330, then added 2 more, then replaced the intial 5 with the 2007 deliveries,I do stand to be corrected on these numbers]

My take on getting a larger aircraft is that EI get more seats for a lower operating costs (10% estimated better than the A330) So this allows EI to adjust their fares downwards to help fill the larger aircraft. Other people are of the opinion that EI may struggle to fill the larger aircraft. We will have to wait and see how that debate turns out.

In terms of -800 versus -900, I would assume that the operating costs are pretty similar for both models (same engines, engineering checks, crew complement) so why not go for the larger model so you can avail of lower CASM with a full cabin/hold. EI do not need the extra range of the -800 as the A350(and the B787) is specifically designed for longer routes than EI currently operate. Hence the comments from the EI CEO that "the A350 is over specified for EI"

And don't forget that the financial reasoning behind replacing the B747-100 with the A330-300 was for the huge drop in fuel consumption coupled with the ability to carry more cargo.

Kapellmeister

On a possibly side issue also: Do people think that there is a tendency for airlines in future to move away from bigger/larger capacity aircraft? I mean 10 years ago, the future seemed to lie in bigger 747's, the A380 etc. whereas if you look at orders now, airlines seem to be buying 350's, 787's, 330's etc. It seems air transport now is dedicated towards the 200-300 seat aircraft and moving away from 400+?

basill

Just because AL has the 350s on order it doesn't mean that they will actually be delivered. Whilst we might take some I would expect they would be part of a wider deal on upgrading 330s, 320s and NEOs etc. People will be chewing off the arm of AL to get the 350s.

dowlingm

Air Canada operates a seasonal A319 from YYT-LHR (3727km great circle). SNN is 600km closer (although that doesn't allow for wind/airway routings) so perhaps an A320 could make it. The question would then be whether to continue on to YYZ or to simply codeshare with AC and others at St. Johns.

The real showstopper might be how much cargo could be carried - EI transatlantic tends to depend on the cargo paying the bills so that the passenger can wax and wane. 757s are poor cargowise and the 767 is a little narrower than the 330s whose cross-section was designed for maximising standard containers. 320s mightn't be able to carry much, particularly westbound.