Florida Primary

Brussels Sprout

According to RealclearPolitics the average of polls has Romney up by 1.2 points versus Gingrich although this is heavily influenced by a poll released yesterday by Insider Advantage which has Romney ahead by 8 points. The same polling company had Gingrich ahead by 8 points just three days earlier so if those numbers are even half way accurate then this represents a considerable change in momentum back toward Romney.

Those analysing the reasons why say it's down to Romney's accusations about Gingrich's past starting to stick.

It should be interesting to see how Gingrich reacts in tonight's debate.

Brussels Sprout

Rasmussen has a poll out today also showing an 8 point lead for Romney. Tellingly though, 24% of respondents say they could still change their mind. Seems like Gingrich can still pull it out of the fire tonight but he's got to be on form (I wonder if they will allow cheering?).

timesnap

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

(I wonder if they will allow cheering?).

Seems they will if the LA Times is to be believed Brussels Sprout.

Mitt Romney encouraged his supporters Thursday to get loud and even storm the gates at tonight’s debate in Florida, the last nationally televised encounter ahead of a potentially pivotal primary next Tuesday.

Enthusiastic crowd reactions for Newt Gingrich, including standing ovations, at a pair of South Carolina debates last week helped propel the former House speaker to a huge victory in that state's primary. By contrast, a debate in Florida on Monday was a far more sedate affair.

Audience members were asked by NBC to refrain from cheers and applause, and to a large extent they complied. The result was a better night for Romney than for Gingrich, in the eyes of many debate-watchers.

But tonight, the crowd will once again be encouraged to respond by CNN, a co-sponsor along with the Florida Republican Party and the Hispanic Leadership Network. More than in any previous presidential campaign, TV debates have played an outsized role in determining the course of the 2012 race—effectively destroying the once-promising candidacy of Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, while at the same time boosting Gingrich.

Critics, including some within the campaigns, have deplored the way some cable networks, in a quest for higher ratings, have amped up the entertainment aspect of the debates, whipping up audiences and turning the productions into a real-world version of popular reality TV shows.

“Now, we’re getting ready for another debate tonight,” said Romney, who has already participated in 17 previous one. “I can’t wait. It’s going to be fun again, you know that,” he added, unconvincingly.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-mitt-romney-tries-to-fire-up-supporters-before-tonights-debate-20120126,0,306753.story.

As a matter of interest are all these debates only being carried by News Networks or are any being shown Nationally on the major networks?

southsiderosie

timesnap wrote: »

As a matter of interest are all these debates only being carried by News Networks or are any being shown Nationally on the major networks?

CNN is cable, but the last debate was hosted by NBC, which is a major national network (along with ABC, CBS, and FOX).

If I remember correctly, once the candidates are set, the presidential debates will be aired simultaneously on all three major networks (I think - they will certainly all have coverage and commentary). The Commission on Presidential Debates will handle these: http://debates.org/. They have already listed the dates, location and format for the presidential and vice-presidential debates: http://www.debates.org/index.php?page=2012-2.

Brussels Sprout

Pretty funny that now that they are in the first state with a big latino population that they are actually arguing over whose immigration policy would be the harshest. I mean they've had that argument in the past, but back then they were all claiming that theirs was the harshest. Now it's the opposite.

Oh and lol at Newt and his idea for a space station on the moon just to win a few votes with the Florida aerospace workers.

southsiderosie

TBH, I thought much of the debate was a disgrace (full disclosure: I couldn't sit through the whole thing!)

I think CNN - and in particular Wolf Blitzer - should be embarrassed about how they ran the debate. I fully agreed with Newt Gingrich when he called Blitzer out for not focusing on actual policy issues.

Also, I wish questions had been framed in a more open way, instead of being presented in a way that just let the candidates ride their individual hobbyhorses. Instead of ranting about Freddie and Fannie, I wish the question had been worded to invite a debate about next steps.

matthew8

Poor night for Romney, worse for Gingrich. Blitzer's a terrible debate moderator, and in general CNN debates are awful. Romney has this one in the bag.

diamondsny

I think Romney may win despite what's in the news.

RichieC

I hope gingrich wins. Mittens has more hope against Obama.

diamondsny

I knew Romney would win

timesnap

diamondsny wrote: »

I knew Romney would win

I suppose i will have to take back something i said on a previous thread that he has zero charisma.
he does at least seem to have adopted to the need to come across a bit warmer.
the ability to adopt is an important part of leading imo.
heaven forbid he unseats Obama,but have to give him that.

Gingrich not congratulating him was a big mistake, made him look like a bad sport.

46% in a four horse race is hard to dispute.

even so as some of the networks reported once again Ron Paul made the best speech,and seems to be relishing the spotlight.
his foreign policy ideas seem nuts but something very appealing about them and if they could be applied retro would have been even better for the US.

InTheTrees

timesnap wrote: »

I suppose i will have to take back something i said on a previous thread that he has zero charisma.

Yup. All the criticisms of al gore and john kerry (dull and elitest) apply to mitt ten fold.

He's a haircut in a suit. (which is probably why he's wearing jeans throughout the campaign. HUGE mistake. Old men in jeans look creepy).

timesnap

InTheTrees wrote: »

Yup. All the criticisms of al gore and john kerry (dull and elitest) apply to mitt ten fold.

He's a haircut in a suit. (which is probably why he's wearing jeans throughout the campaign. HUGE mistake. Old men in jeans look creepy).

$18 million spent on just the broadcast networks in Florida,all negative,that does not include what was paid to cable channels.
if i spent a fraction of that i would not even be able to afford jeans.;)

dublinman1990

I had been watching Richard Downes from RTE News doing his report on the primary this afternoon's One O'Clock News.

This report below is taken from the Flagship RTE 6.1 News.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0201/uselection.html#video

Even though I am an Obama supporter, One thing that did struck me was that both Romney and Gingrich were too plain in the way in that their leadership qualities was extremely lacking in that respect.

The way I would see it is that noticeably the current GOP candidates are definitely not the most deserving winners of the campaign. They are in huge trouble at the moment with the republican personalities being too hardline to make them attract more votes and popularity then they should.

It is just all about the mudslinging and the scandal at the moment with the way they have been presented themselves so far.

If Obama annihilates either of them, well I wouldn't have sympathy for any of them.

There is even more controversy between a Ron Paul supporter called Eddie Gillard who is against Gingrich. He held up a Ron Paul 2012 poster in front of the Gingrich's security guard and supporters, he along with his wife were both furious at the attempt.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=20d_1328040791

Even Gingrich, though born a lutheran and then convert into a Baptist, who turned up in his campaign bus to vote for the primary in a Baptist Church even though I heard recently that he was converted to being Catholic around two years ago?

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2824354/posts

Even Gingrich's religion is being questioned by other people too. I am an Irish Catholic myself, and I find it a disgrace to hear that he has the moral duty to get himself Holy Communion when he divorced from his third wife. It is just nonsensical and highly ignorant of him IMO. :mad:

He has even met Pope Benedict at a Catholic Church before and because of that he says he like the church hierarchy because of it.

He'll probably turn protestant now next. Wait to you see it!!!!!:mad:

Stereomaniac

Sounds like Gingrich is a yes man! Good thing he didn't meet Gadaffi!

timesnap

yeah one man persona by state, by three of them so far.
i should hate Ron Paul but i just can't.
guess its down to him always being himself no matter what anybody thinks.