Post your HEC semi final draw conspiracy theory here

durkadurka · 22-01-2012 3:17pm #1

This needs to be documented in advance of the draw.

CatFromHue · 22-01-2012 3:18pm

Biarritz to get a home Semi against an Italian team.

Benny Cake · 22-01-2012 3:18pm

durkadurka wrote: »

This needs to be documented in advance of the draw.

When do they make the draw for the semi-finals?

GerM · 22-01-2012 3:20pm

Saracens/French side vs Cardiff/French side

Munster/8th seed vs Leinster/7th seed (academic as it will be in the Aviva, just keeping Irish sides on same side of draw)

ScrubsfanChris · 22-01-2012 3:40pm

Biarritz wont qualify for the last 8, there will be no conspiracy

GerM · 22-01-2012 3:47pm

ScrubsfanChris wrote: »

Biarritz wont qualify for the last 8, there will be no conspiracy

They're there at the moment! Cardiff losing at home to Racing.

Quint2010 · 22-01-2012 4:16pm

Which ever quater of the draw Saracens are in will get a home semi final seeing as the final is in Twickenham. I also predict Toulouse quarter of the draw to get a home semi.

connundrum · 22-01-2012 4:18pm

The Heineken Cup semi-final draw will take place at approximately 17.25 (UK / Irish time) and will be followed by the draw for the Amlin Challenge Cup with both being streamed live on www.ercrugby.com and broadcast live on Sky Sports and on Canal Groupe's infosport + channel.

errlloyd · 22-01-2012 4:30pm

Saracens' will get a home semi.

Leinster will get a home semi.

Podge_irl · 22-01-2012 4:33pm

I try not to bother predicting completely random events...

errlloyd · 22-01-2012 4:34pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

I try not to bother predicting completely random events...

Man its not random. Erc decide based on ticket revenue. Its just about being able to predict economic benefits. Obviously.

Benny Cake · 22-01-2012 4:34pm

If Munster/Ulster are drawn at home to Leinster for example, it would be played at the Aviva, are the tickets split 50/50 or do the home team get the majority?

Podge_irl · 22-01-2012 4:35pm

Benny Cake wrote: »

If Munster/Ulster are drawn at home to Leinster for example, it would be played at the Aviva, are the tickets split 50/50 or do the home team get the majority?

50/50

justsomebloke · 22-01-2012 4:37pm

Car/cler V Munster/ulster

Saracens/Toulouse v Leinster/edinburgh

Podge_irl · 22-01-2012 4:38pm

errlloyd wrote: »

Man its not random.

It really is.

If it was so obviously rigged as so many seem to think, the ERC would be subject to several thousand law suits. Not to mention PWC (who I think are the auditors) would not look too kindly on it.

justsomebloke · 22-01-2012 4:39pm

Benny Cake wrote: »

If Munster/Ulster are drawn at home to Leinster for example, it would be played at the Aviva, are the tickets split 50/50 or do the home team get the majority?

Oh god I can already see the ticket fiasco thread coming

danthefan · 22-01-2012 4:41pm

I heard Donal Lenihan talking about the draw last year, he'd been involved in it one year and seemed perfectly happy it was fair.

danthefan · 22-01-2012 4:42pm

justsomebloke wrote: »

Benny Cake wrote: »

If Munster/Ulster are drawn at home to Leinster for example, it would be played at the Aviva, are the tickets split 50/50 or do the home team get the majority?

Oh god I can already see the ticket fiasco thread coming

It would be 50/50 btw.

justsomebloke · 22-01-2012 4:46pm

danthefan wrote: »

It would be 50/50 btw.

Is it actually 50/50 as I thought there was a separate public allocation separate to what the clubs get. The problem is generally these are put up immediately or following morning which can cause issues as one group of fans are still coming home from there game

ScrubsfanChris · 22-01-2012 5:20pm

Is ercrugby.com down for anyone else?

errlloyd · 22-01-2012 5:47pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

It really is.

If it was so obviously rigged as so many seem to think, the ERC would be subject to several thousand law suits. Not to mention PWC (who I think are the auditors) would not look too kindly on it.

Sorry man I am trolling away here.

Only Derren Brown could rig this.

durkadurka · 22-01-2012 8:58pm

So, Saracens get a home semi. How very convenient.
And the Irish teams kept apart.

I think they know we're watching

irishbucsfan · 22-01-2012 9:03pm

IT WAS ALL SERGE BLANCO

mikedragon32 · 22-01-2012 11:02pm

Podge_irl wrote: »

It really is.

If it was so obviously rigged as so many seem to think, the ERC would be subject to several thousand law suits. Not to mention PWC (who I think are the auditors) would not look too kindly on it.

The same PWC who used to audit Anglo? :eek:

Nah, must be a fair draw.

Riskymove · 23-01-2012 1:25pm

well, lets see

GerM wrote: »

Saracens/French side vs Cardiff/French side

Munster/8th seed vs Leinster/7th seed (academic as it will be in the Aviva, just keeping Irish sides on same side of draw)

wrong

justsomebloke wrote:

Car/cler V Munster/ulster

Saracens/Toulouse v Leinster/edinburgh

wrong

quint2010 wrote:

Which ever quater of the draw Saracens are in will get a home semi final seeing as the final is in Twickenham.

correct ...but

I also predict Toulouse quarter of the draw to get a home semi.

wrong

errlloyd wrote:

Saracens' will get a home semi.

correct, but

Leinster will get a home semi.

wrong

....Not much evidence of a conspiracy so!!

In fact, if ever there was to be evidence of one, it would have been Biarritz qualifying :pac:

connundrum · 23-01-2012 1:55pm

Any word on when tickets will go on general release?

Big Nelly · 23-01-2012 2:21pm

connundrum wrote: »

Any word on when tickets will go on general release?

For which match, Leinster season ticket holders can book there's this week

CatFromHue · 23-01-2012 3:10pm

If anyone can remember their Leaving Cert probability it would come in handy now. I can't but with 2 home Semi's from 4 Quarters the odds would be 50/50. The more teams from one nation the bigger chance they have of getting the home Semi's. Looking below the only season where something could be a miss would be 07/08.

The final was in France in 09/10 and there were 3 QF's with French teams in them. Two of them got home Semi's.

The final was in Wales in 07/08 and there was 1 Welsh team in the QF's, if they'd won they'd have gotten a home Semi.

The final was in England in 06/07 and there were 3 QF's with English teams in them. Two of them got a home Semi.

The final was in England in 03/04 and there was 1 QF with English teams in it. They were drawn AWAY in the Semi though.

The final was in Ireland in 02/03 and there was 2 QF's with Irish teams in them. One was drawn at home and the other away for the Semi's.

The final was in France in 00/01 and there were 2 QF's with French teams in them. One was drawn away and the other drawn at home for the Semis.

durkadurka · 23-01-2012 5:51pm

CatFromHue wrote: »

If anyone can remember their Leaving Cert probability it would come in handy now. I can't but with 2 home Semi's from 4 Quarters the odds would be 50/50. The more teams from one nation the bigger chance they have of getting the home Semi's. Looking below the only season where something could be a miss would be 07/08.

The final was in France in 09/10 and there were 3 QF's with French teams in them. Two of them got home Semi's.

The final was in Wales in 07/08 and there was 1 Welsh team in the QF's, if they'd won they'd have gotten a home Semi.

The final was in England in 06/07 and there were 3 QF's with English teams in them. Two of them got a home Semi.

The final was in England in 03/04 and there was 1 QF with English teams in it. They were drawn AWAY in the Semi though.

The final was in Ireland in 02/03 and there was 2 QF's with Irish teams in them. One was drawn at home and the other away for the Semi's.

The final was in France in 00/01 and there were 2 QF's with French teams in them. One was drawn away and the other drawn at home for the Semis.

Nothing there looks outside of reasonable probability to me.

The only statistical oddity is Biarritz and Italian clubs in the group stages I reckon.
The reason I created this thread was really to drive this out, becuase last time, whatever the result, it was what the organisers wanted, or so they would have you think.

So no one predicted the draw. No country really did well or badly out of it. They didn't put the dream semi of Leinster v Munster together, and Saracens getting a home semi was 50/50 anyway.

The french got one home semi and one away. Ditto the Irish.

No conspiracy.

Riskymove · 24-01-2012 10:07am

durkadurka wrote: »

The only statistical oddity is Biarritz and Italian clubs in the group stages I reckon.

it isn't really an oddity if you look at how the groups are set up and how many clauses there are
(e.g. one french/english team per group, etc)

as higher seeds Toulouse and Biarritz were basically guaranteed an italian team in pot 4 (although connacht was an exception this year)

It is not an open draw

Post your HEC semi final draw conspiracy theory here

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