A Split GOP Conference?

kev9100

I know the primary race has a long way to go but I think this is now the most likely outcome for the GOP when you look at the respective candidates.

Romney: He has plenty of money but no matter how far he moves to the right the GOP base refuses to accept him. If he fails to win South Carolina, of the first three states on offer the only one he has won is his semi home state New Hampshire. Not exactly confidence inspiring if you want to see Romney win decisively.

Gingrich: Is in a very different situation to Romney. The GOP's far-right base loves him, but he doesn't have the funds to knock Romney out. If he wins SC (which I think he will) there's no doubt he'll drag this race on to the bitter end.

Santorum: Had his moment in the sun in Iowa, will probably drop out/be made irrelevant after SC. Will help Gingrich as it frees upmore uber-conservative votes for Gingrich.

Paul: Is probably the most interesting candidate as I truly don't believe he wants to win the nomination. He wants to create a new-extreme States Rights/libertarian movement with him at the centre of it. He doesn't have the money or support to win the nomination, but he will conistently get around 15-25% of the vote and will never drop out no matter what.


Thus, when one cosiders everything, a divided GOP convention is the most likely outcome imo and this can only help Obama.

Thoughts?

timesnap

kev9100 wrote: »

I know the primary race has a long way to go but I think this is now the most likely outcome for the GOP when you look at the respective candidates.

Romney: He has plenty of money but no matter how far he moves to the right the GOP base refuses to accept him. If he fails to win South Carolina, of the first three states on offer the only one he has won is his semi home state New Hampshire. Not exactly confidence inspiring if you want to see Romney win decisively.

Gingrich: Is in a very different situation to Romney. The GOP's far-right base loves him, but he doesn't have the funds to knock Romney out. If he wins SC (which I think he will) there's no doubt he'll drag this race on to the bitter end.

Santorum: Had his moment in the sun in Iowa, will probably drop out/be made irrelevant after SC. Will help Gingrich as it frees upmore uber-conservative votes for Gingrich.

Paul: Is probably the most interesting candidate as I truly don't believe he wants to win the nomination. He wants to create a new-extreme States Rights/libertarian movement with him at the centre of it. He doesn't have the money or support to win the nomination, but he will conistently get around 15-25% of the vote and will never drop out no matter what.


Thus, when one cosiders everything, a divided GOP convention is the most likely outcome imo and this can only help Obama.

Thoughts?

Hi Kev, i think the situation is so fluid that anything might happen before election day in America.

as i asked in another thread 'who was it said that who gets to the WH is all about the economy stooooopppppppppppiiiiiiiiiiiiddddddddddd.

Southsiderosie very kindly filled a knowledge gap for me,that it was Clintons main election agent that suggested the slogan.

if the US economy is at least improving closer to the election then Obama will most likely win.

most people would not care if their leader was an alien with three heads if they can find work and are not taxed too much