Cheltenham 2012 - Ante post

gudede

I decided to have my first bet on the 2012 Cheltenham festival.

Gold Cup - Magnanimity @ 100/1 (E/W)

In my view the key thing to look for in an ante post market is value and I think 100/1 is cracking value.

Magnanimity is set to tackle next month's Hennessy Gold Cup at Leopardstown after his satisfactory comeback effort in the Lexus Chase over Christmas.

Dessie Hughes' eight-year-old was one of the best novices in Ireland last season and was beaten just a length into fourth in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham, though he picked up in injury in that race which meant the Lexus was his first run of the season. Hughes told At The Races: "I was very pleased with him, he ran a hell of a race. Right down to between the third last and the second last he was within a couple of lengths of the leaders."

He added: He hadn't run since the RSA so he just got a bit tired, he was running well in the RSA until he got injured where he fractured a joint. He was stood in his box for months. He'll run in the Hennessy all being well."

Compared to the Jessie Dream 25/1 and Bostons Angel 50/1 I think he's value. He got injured in the RSA last year and still didn't finish that far behind these two. He is also entered in the Ryanair but with nearly every horse thinking about the Ryanair they mite be better off trying the Gold Cup, if he goes well in the Hennessy then I think the 100/1 will be gone and he probably will be running in the gold cup. Also I don't think there is much in the gold cup race this year, I don't really rate Long Run and I just put a line through him every time he runs and I think Kauto Star won't get up the hill like last year. So there could be value found in this race by backing the outsiders. I also like O'Leary's other horse that will line up Quito De La Roque but at 25/1 I think I'll wait till the day.

ft9

I have a double done on Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle and Scotsirish for the Cross Country. Probably my only ante-post bet.

UrbanSea

I think Champion Court is a great bet for the Jewson should he turn up. Idiotic trainer is on about going for the RSA if Grands Crus goes for the GC,even though he was stuffed over 3 miles at Chelt already this year

Oscars Well.

I've done a double with Hurricane Fly and Long Run. That's my only bet so far.

Gavin "shels"

No bets placed yet (will be doing my searching next week when I've time) but atm I'm liking Sizing Europe to win the Queen Mother, Hurricane Fly for the Champion Hurdle, and well I have to back Kauto Star.

UrbanSea

The zero value bets gav.


I like Champion Court for the Jewson at 14/1 and really big on Scotsirish at 7/2

Gavin "shels"

UrbanSea wrote: »

The zero value bets gav.

9/4, 9/4 and 4/1


If I do back them, and they do win, I don't really mind!

NaiveMelodies

Monksland in the Neptune at 14s might represent a bit of value as I don't think Fingal Bay's target has been decided as of yet..

Finians Rainbow at 11/2, I reckon he'll win well on saturday, and his price might plummet, so potential for a free bet perhaps...

Oscars Well.

only1stevo wrote: »

Monksland in the Neptune at 14s might represent a bit of value as I don't think Fingal Bay's target has been decided as of yet..

Finians Rainbow at 11/2, I reckon he'll win well on saturday, and his price might plummet, so potential for a free bet perhaps...

I like the look of Monksland too, Meade seems to rate him very highly.

Mcharko

Hurricane Fly
Big Bucks
Quevega

Luap

Not a racing expert but thinking about doing a big double or treble. Don't really care about value that much.

Grand Crus 11/4
Quevega Evs
Big Buck's 4/7
Hurricane Fly 4/5

What's peoples opinions on these horses?
Any advice would be appreciated.

UrbanSea

I know they look bomb proof but Cheltenham is a favourite graveyard.

Also I wouldn't place a lot of faith in favourites in the RSA. A very very tough race.

Gavin "shels"

Maloney_o9 wrote: »

Not a racing expert but thinking about doing a big double or treble. Don't really care about value that much.

Grand Crus 11/4
Quevega Evs
Big Buck's 4/7
Hurricane Fly 4/5

What's peoples opinions on these horses?
Any advice would be appreciated.

Personnally I'll be avoiding Grand Crus in my fourfold and replacing him with Sizing Europe 2/1 (all going well), 16/1 fourfold last time I checked.

robfullam

Hurricane Fly,
Big Bucks,
Long Run (To Beat Kauto Star up the Cheltenham Hill)
Quevega.

€50 accum pays 1100.. Did that before Hurricane won the BHP.

Think 50 pays 830 now.

Decent bet just over 16/1

Gavin "shels"

Gavin shels wrote: »

Personnally I'll be avoiding Grand Crus in my fourfold and replacing him with Sizing Europe 2/1 (all going well), 16/1 fourfold last time I checked.

That fourfold is gone from 16/1 to 9/1 with Boyles.:mad:

Sizing Europe
Quevega
Big Buck's
Hurricane Fly

Just put €20 on it.

Nulty

Haven't looked too closely at the races yet but I like Divers for the Festival Plate if he goes there and Abergavenny in the County Hurdle. Both will appreciate a strong pace and good ground.

Galloways4life

the 4 winners of the 4 big races 2011 - Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run -to retain crowns 18/1 with PP....logic says it is decent value given the way they are running...surely it couldn't happen though?!!

jonnygiles

Galloways4life wrote: »

the 4 winners of the 4 big races 2011 - Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe, Big Bucks and Long Run -to retain crowns 18/1 with PP....logic says it is decent value given the way they are running...surely it couldn't happen though?!!

In my opinion Long Run has had a far worse year this year than last in preparation for his Gold Cup run was on him at 9/2 last year and would probably want double the odds on him now and not bleeding 2/1! His jumping has been very suspect in all of his races, and had to be hard at work to win what looked an ordinary race today. If i was to say a gud treble to back it would be Sizing Europe, Hurricane Fly and Quevaga

phantasmagoria

I thought there was very little wrong with Long Run's recent jumping effort.
Am I the only one who thinks Quevega cannot keep turning up and winning that mares hurdle race every year!?

Fryern

From Nick Luck C4 11.45am :- " I get quieter as the years go by in these ante-post markets but sit quite nicely with Binocular at the moment and couldn 't resist a bit more of the 9-1 Hills were offering after the Kingwell."

Should have had the 15-1 on Betfair

Burnbaby76

Hi folks, - I may well have this in the wrong thread, so moderators please move if necessary.

There will be a Cheltenham Preview Night in Westmanstown Sports & Conference Centre on Wed 29 Feb 2012 @8pm.

Tickets €20 to include free €5 bet available

This is a ticket only event and there are only a few left.

Panel to include Ivan Yates, Ruby Walsh, Barry Geraghty, Davy Russell, Colm Murphy, Jessica Harrington, Donn McClean, Paddy Power. Also Paul Nicholls & Willie Mullins by phone.

All proceeds in aid of the Tania McCabe Foundation.

If interested in attending and have yet to purchase a ticket, please PM me.

Cheers!

Burnbaby.

leggit

Hurricane Fly
Big Bucks
Quevega

Meant to do it when HF was 9/4 but never got around to it!

Can't see either or these 3 being beaten, did a double of Hurricane Fly and Big Bucks just in case...

ft9

I have all this years hot-pots done in numerous combinations.

Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sprinter Sacre, Big Bucks, Sizing Europe, ScotsIrish.

Looks very straight forward, it's difficult to see any of them being beaten.

finbarrk

ft9 wrote: »

I have all this years hot-pots done in numerous combinations.

Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Sprinter Sacre, Big Bucks, Sizing Europe, ScotsIrish.

Looks very straight forward, it's difficult to see any of them being beaten.

Thinking the same myself. Once NRNB comes in.

ft9

finbarrk wrote: »

Thinking the same myself. Once NRNB comes in.

Its in with a few firms I think.

Bet365 are def NRNB

Onecoolcookie

Do best odds guaranteed still count for ante post markets?

Fryern

From Gordon Elliott yesterday:-

All Cheltenham horses galloped very well in Navan just now...only 9 sleeps to go, can't wait!

Ones I particularly like:-
Mount Benbulben - Albert
Carlito Brigante - World
Shadow catcher - Triumph

Makes sure you bet with NRNB like Vicbet

Fryern

Onecoolcookie wrote: »

Do best odds guaranteed still count for ante post markets?

Never have to my knowledge. Always used to be all in. So if non-runner you lose (except GN if ballotted out).

For Cheltenham most now go NRNB but you take the price. At circa 48 hours before the race it will be NRNB + best odds with some like bet365. Many don't do best odds even on todays racing - Stan James is one. Check the terms with whoever you are betting with.

Fryern

Worth a watch Gordon Elliott talking about his runners at Cheltenham. He could win the best trainer award for which he is 66-1. He had 2 winners last year. C'mon Tubby.

http://betting.betfair.ie/gordon-elliott/latest-news/gordon-elliotts-cheltenham-preview-080312.html

ohyesthefinest

Throwing €20 on Diamond Harry for the crack. Can't see him winning but should run strongly imo.

smndly

Lump on Al Ferof. Decent chance I think and money back if sprinter sacre wins on Paddy Power.