Burma transitioning to democracy, why now?

gurramok

As the questions asks, what has triggered the latest round of easing of sanctions, releasing of political prisoners, civilian government(this part still questionable) and peace talks with ethnic rebels.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-16554415

I quote a comment from the story by a reader which sums it up.

With all the mess in the world, and so many people doing so many wrong things, this news from Burma just re establishes ones faith in humanity. Good deed on such a scale ?! I wonder though what triggered it? Army was sitting pretty with all the controls in its hand. I doubt that political pressure bought about this change. They survived very well without opening up for so many years. So why now?

After Iraq in 1991, 2003 and Libya in 2011 in the 'pursuit of democracy' via Us war actions, why had Burma not been touched(as in US overtures) until now? The military still has an iron grip and quite doing well for themselves, what has changed, i'm puzzled!!

Jaafa

The US has made big overtures towards Burma, I'd imagine there is a lot of dollars/military equipment in the future of the regime.

We can only hope they transition fully towards democracy. Or they'll advance to the stage where they look like some sort of democratic state but the military leaders will still hold the power behind doors, that way they get the best of both worlds. i.e aid/trade from the US while remaining in effective power.

Cardinal Richelieu

Its my guess its the economy. All the neighbours in the region have powered ahead in recent years. The great and the good of the ruling families travel abroad and see the wealth that can be earned if sanctions are dropped. From the article below the military government has shifted quite a bit of infrastructure over to the military families over the last couple of years.

VOA Nov 2011

Burma, one of the poorest nations in East Asia, may be entering a new phase of development after recent elections and the release of Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi from detention. Regional political analysts fear little will change for most in the country.

Economic forecast

Burma's central bank governor recently gave the World Bank a rosy picture of the country's economy, saying it would grow about 12 percent this year, driven by exports of natural gas and farm produce.

The Asian Development Bank, however, forecasts a more limited expansion in 2010 of 5 percent.

Experts on Burma, however, say neither assessment would do much to improve the lives of most Burmese.

Poverty and despair

Alison Vicary, an economist from Australia's Macquarie University, says Burma faces widespread difficulties.

"Oh I'd say it was a mess," Vicary said. "The continued kind of reports that we've had … that people have of difficulty of putting food on the table. I think that kind of captures it. Anecdotally I would say that things are gradually just across time, actually getting worse and worse for ordinary people."

Burma is one of Asia's poorest countries, and there are estimates that nearly a third of the population lives in extreme poverty.

Burdensome Taxation

A Macquarie University study found Burma's taxation system was onerous, often included forced labor, the forced purchasing of goods and confiscation of land. Poor road and port infrastructure also hampers development.

Hopes have risen among some economists and regional analysts that elections held November 7th, the first in 20 years, may lead to more openness in the economy, which the military government dominates.

But Debbie Stothard, the spokeswoman for the rights group the Alternative ASEAN Network, expects little change.

"It's a crisis situation for many parts of rural Burma where people are actually unable to grow food to feed themselves because of land confiscation, because of over-taxation by the authorities and just simply the lack of opportunities," Stothard said. "Most people felt very cynical and unhappy about the Burmese elections. The elections brought more taxes."

Corruption rampant

Burma's government is considered highly corrupt. And many governments, including the United States, have imposed economic sanctions on the government because of its human rights abuses.

But that has not stopped some foreign investors. Thailand is Burma's leading investor, particularly in natural gas and oil.

China also is major investor and trade partner, especially in the energy sector.

Burma's other main exports are timber and precious stones, which draw investors from Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and India.

Bertil Lintner, an author who has written extensively about Burma, says despite the investment, the economy remains weak because of government mismanagement.

"There is virtually no capital investment in the country, there's no investment in manufacturing or anything that could really produce substantial economic growth," Lintner said.

Over the past year, the government sold off millions of dollars of assets, including ports and transportation systems, to businesses and military officers close to the top leaders.

Stothard at the Alternative ASEAN Network says that likely added the people's burdens.

"It's actually concentrating ownership of the main economic opportunities of the country," Stothard added. "So that's going to mean for most people in Burma prices will increase and their opportunities to make money will decrease."

Economic and political reform

But some Burma experts say the sales could dilute the military's economic power and help create an entrepreneurial class.

The government's decision to free opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi from years of detention this month has opened discussion about whether economic sanctions should be eased. Aung San Suu Kyi has indicated she is considering the idea, after years of endorsing sanctions.

Critics say that as long as countries such as China and India ignore sanctions, they only impoverish ordinary people and enrich the leadership.

But author Lintner says the sanctions need to stay until the military makes more reforms.

"Sanctions would not be removed without any concessions on the part of the government," said Lintner. "That was the whole purpose of introducing sanctions in the first place. Now unless there are some significant changes in the present policies of the regime, I cannot see that she would advocate the removal of sanctions. Sanctions are there for a purpose – that is the political pressure point."

Uncertainty looms large
Because of the uncertainties over how the newly elected government will handle the economy, and over sanctions, potential investors are expected remain wary of Burma. And, Burma scholars say, it is likely the country will continue to lag behind in a region that has powered ahead economically.

Jonny7

I've been following this with surprise as well.

Its a number of factors, guilt over the scale of the violence during the Burmese protests 2 years ago, the subsequent cyclone which killed an estimated 140,000 (a lot of this due to the bad infrastructure), the recent Arab spring - just overall pressure on the junta

Obviously they'll stop somewhere, but at least its some sort of a start. I hope Western powers are quick to (cautiously) praise them and push trade/investment links as soon as possible.

Nodin

Does seem like a sudden leap, but presumably they've been working towards it for a while. One would hope all of their programs of ethnic cleansing are stopped to gain this approval.

Chuck Stone

Burma is strategically very important to both India and in particular China. The West would like to have influence there so who knows what kind of back-room deals and promises are being made.

Gareth Price, an expert in Burma at Chatham House, the London-based thinktank, said the west needed to be careful not to antagonise China, which remains the country with the greatest leverage over Burma.

While US officials have denied that Clinton's trip to Burma is primarily about countering Chinese influence there and in the region, many in Beijing disagree.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/dec/01/india-china-move-to-protect-burmese-interests

EarthRights International (ERI) has identified at least 69 Chinese multinational corporations (MNCs) involved in at least 90 hydropower, oil and natural gas, and mining projects in Burma.2 These recent findings build upon previous ERI research collected between May and August 2007 that identified 26 Chinese MNCs involved in 62 projects. These projects vary from small dams completed in the last two decades to planned oil and natural gas pipelines across Burma to southwest China.

http://www.earthrights.org/sites/default/files/publications/China-in-Burma-update-2008-English.pdf

Sino-Burma pipelines.

Route of pipeline.

catbear

I traveled through Burma eight years ago and what was obvious then was Chinas growing influence in the northern states near the Chinese border. From that time I would guess that the current moves by the regime are being taken reluctantly.

The country seemed held together by truces between states defined by tribes. The burmese seem to hold the flat middle but everywhere else they are in a minority.

Ultimately retention of power is the ultimate goal, any power ceded to citizens is done to counter chinas influence. The move of the political capital upland from Yangon is another defensive move though this time against western powers.

For most of it's isolated recent history the Regime never had to worry about outside influences but now it's trying to learn how to trade them against eachother to retain control. The regime says it rules and wages war in the name of national unity and has never displayed tact or restraint in doing so, I won't be surprised if at some phase soon they grossly miscalculate their bargaining power.

Militias within Burmas border independent of the Regime have been armed with Chinese weapons, it's not clear if they're funded directly by the Chinese government or the drug trade.