Ireland will miss bailout target - Goodbody

Raskolnikov

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0110/breaking33.html

Ireland will miss its bailout target of cutting its deficit to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2015, according to Goodbody Stockbrokers.

The Dublin-based securities firm has cut its 2012 GDP estimate for the country to 0.7 per cent from 1.2 per cent, with domestic demand contracting by 2.6 per cent, it said in a note today.

Growth will improve in 2013, but the process of deleveraging by banks and households will drive a further modest fall in domestic demand in that year, the firm predicted.

there is more...

It must surely be beginning to damn on certain folks that there are no easy ways out. If Fine Gael want us to continue abiding by the bailout terms, I think it's clear that drastic action is needed. The health budget in particular is out of control and we can no longer expect to continue to enjoy the health system that we have. Realistically hospitals would need to close and nurses and doctors will need to be fired, fudging about with a few paycuts just isn't going to cut it. Education also needs to be cut. Even though our class sizes are already the highest in Europe, we will need to start getting used to class sizes of over 30 becoming commonplace. Finally the sacred cows of welfare and pensions need to be tackled with cuts of a 1/3rd for each.

I am not even sure that kind of austerity would balance our books, perhaps we need to look at emergency income tax with the standard and higher rates both increasing by 10%.

drunkmonkey

You might as well quote the Dandy as the times, it has more truth in it.

Kavrocks

Nobody but the Government can say whether or not we will hit the 3% target and even at that I'd doubt they could either.

I don't think we will unless their is a major overhaul of the political system and how TD's are voted in in the very near future.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Taxi Drivers

From what I've seen it looks like we'll miss the targets this year never mind in 2015.

Kavrocks

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I didn't say only they could make economic forecasts, anybody can and I did in my previous post.

I meant more along the lines of only the Government have control over it by the actions they take in the Department of Finance.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

coolshannagh28

At last reality strikes ,next time the sacred cows will be offered up because the three card trick started by FF and continued by Labour has been found out . The Troika will impose the terms of the next bailout if they even agree to it and the real structural changes our economy needs will happen .Bring it on

femur61

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Couldn't agree more, we have to balance the books, leaving aside bank debt we are still in deficit. We have to borrow 20bn a year for PS and SW. The reality is these have to be hit. It is unfortunate, but true.

washman3

Raskolnikov wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2012/0110/breaking33.html
It must surely be beginning to damn on certain folks that there are no easy ways out. The health budget in particular is out of control and we can no longer expect to continue to enjoy the health system that we have.

so we will have to sleep on the floors now rather than on trolleys.??

give those government "advisors" another €30,000

woodoo

femur61 wrote: »

Couldn't agree more, we have to balance the books, leaving aside bank debt we are still in deficit. We have to borrow 20bn a year for PS and SW. The reality is these have to be hit. It is unfortunate, but true.

Is the 20 billion just for PS and SW?

We have been borrowing about 20billion per year for the last number of years despite 5 or 6 austerity budgets. Something is wrong that austerity is obviously not fixing.

sarumite

woodoo wrote: »

Is the 20 billion just for PS and SW?

We have been borrowing about 20billion per year for the last number of years despite 5 or 6 austerity budgets. Something is wrong that austerity is obviously not fixing.

I would argue that is a bit premature to say that at the moment. I do think we are doing the wrong kind of austerity. In the last budget the government cut €750M in capital expenditure which is the type of spending we should be doing (and in my opinion it is ethical to borrow for such types of spending as the future generations who will be paying back the money will benefit from such spending). The government is choosing the politically easy austerity targets rather than making financially sound decisions.

_Kaiser_

I do "love" these keyboard economists in this forum that resort to the tired old "cut welfare, cut health, cut education" mantra whenever yet another report comes up showing this farce for what it is!

No one currently on welfare, on a hospital trolley, or trying to get an education in this country signed us up to a deal that sold the people into economic servitude to the banks and gamblers who bet and lost. Nor are they the ones still pocketing ridiculous salaries, expenses and "perks" while the "average worker" foots the bill.

Yes, we all know that there's wastage in the aforementioned sectors, but that's not what's being targeted is it? Nope - once again it's those least able to defend/represent themselves that are being lined up in the crosshairs.

Tell these unguaranteed bondholders to forget their cushy paydays, cut TD salaries in half, cut all but the basic expenses and abolish these quangos that cost a fortune for nothing.

Then (after the government predictably collapses), go back and play hardball with the Troika and see just how much they want to save the Euro (although personally I think we should walk before we're pushed!) and see what terms we can get.

After you've done all that come back and tell me that the (newly!) unemployed trying to survive on €188 a week in the face of increasing utilities, VAT and so on are responsible for cleaning up this mess.

Icepick

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

I do "love" these keyboard economists in this forum that resort to the tired old "cut welfare, cut health, cut education" mantra whenever yet another report comes up showing this farce for what it is!

No one currently on welfare, on a hospital trolley, or trying to get an education in this country signed us up to a deal that sold the people into economic servitude to the banks and gamblers who bet and lost. Nor are they the ones still pocketing ridiculous salaries, expenses and "perks" while the "average worker" foots the bill.

Yes, we all know that there's wastage in the aforementioned sectors, but that's not what's being targeted is it? Nope - once again it's those least able to defend/represent themselves that are being lined up in the crosshairs.

Tell these unguaranteed bondholders to forget their cushy paydays, cut TD salaries in half, cut all but the basic expenses and abolish these quangos that cost a fortune for nothing.

Then (after the government predictably collapses), go back and play hardball with the Troika and see just how much they want to save the Euro (although personally I think we should walk before we're pushed!) and see what terms we can get.

After you've done all that come back and tell me that the (newly!) unemployed trying to survive on €188 a week in the face of increasing utilities, VAT and so on are responsible for cleaning up this mess.

OK, let's say we magically won't have to pay a cent to pay off our debt. This deal is so good we don't have to pay the debt incurred before the bailout.
And we still have 10-12.5 billion less than we spend.
What do we do?

washman3

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

I do "love" these keyboard economists in this forum that resort to the tired old "cut welfare, cut health, cut education" mantra whenever yet another report comes up showing this farce for what it is!

No one currently on welfare, on a hospital trolley, or trying to get an education in this country signed us up to a deal that sold the people into economic servitude to the banks and gamblers who bet and lost. Nor are they the ones still pocketing ridiculous salaries, expenses and "perks" while the "average worker" foots the bill.

Yes, we all know that there's wastage in the aforementioned sectors, but that's not what's being targeted is it? Nope - once again it's those least able to defend/represent themselves that are being lined up in the crosshairs.

Tell these ungu

aranteed bondholders to forget their cushy paydays, cut TD salaries in half, cut all but the basic expenses and abolish these quangos that cost a fortune for nothing.

Then (after the government predictably collapses), go back and play hardball with the Troika and see just how much they want to save the Euro (although personally I think we should walk before we're pushed!) and see what terms we can get.

After you've done all that come back and tell me that the (newly!) unemployed trying to survive on €188 a week in the face of increasing utilities, VAT and so on are responsible for cleaning up this mess.

Best post of 2012 so far... well said

Nijmegen

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

I do "love" these keyboard economists in this forum that resort to the tired old "cut welfare, cut health, cut education" mantra whenever yet another report comes up showing this farce for what it is!

Whilst I do agree fully with your sentiment as regards the bank bailout and all that, separately we have a deficit in current spending that has nothing to do with the bank bailout. It's due to a massive contraction in our real economy leading to a contraction in government revenue.

Ronan Lyon's has a good analysis up just today on where government is making its cuts, and two charts in particular are instructive:

Firstly, the composition of government spending by area today (non-voted expendature includes the servicing of the national debt, stuff we can't avoid):


Secondly, the composition of government cuts in the 2012 budget (the % figure given next to each header is its weight against the total budget; the pie chart represents the % of the cuts)

All current expenditure outside the areas of health, education and social welfare constitutes about one sixth of all spending but has made up almost two thirds of the cuts.

Clearly that cannot be sustained. As Lyon's points out, you could eliminate every government department from Taoiseach to Arts and Heritage and it wouldn't close the deficit.

As to missing our bailout targets, that's another easy one when you look at the debt dynamics of the rosy picture, and then look at the deteriorating condition of the economy.

The slower our growth the bigger chunk of government revenue debt servicing eats up, the more cuts you have to make to keep that paid and the more you need to borrow to keep running the show.

As a column in The Journal pointed out recently in the next five years Ireland will spend almost a sixth year to service the debt.

Our bond yields on the open market remain above 8% and we're borrowing in our bailout at 3.5%, and we're supposed to return to the markets this year?

Indeed, our current borrowing yields is close to the historical low our bonds ever achieved, in 2005.

woodoo

Icepick wrote: »

OK, let's say we magically won't have to pay a cent to pay off our debt. This deal is so good we don't have to pay the debt incurred before the bailout.
And we still have 10-12.5 billion less than we spend.
What do we do?

Try and stimulate people to spend money again. Its a bit of a waiting game confidence needs to return. Jobs are created by the spending and welfare will be reduced. Less welfare more tax before you know it we are at 6 billion deficit.

Cutting is just taking money out of the economy its not going to work.

There is no way out of this without getting the 22billion welfare costs down. Cutting welfare is not going to make a big difference. Getting people back to work will. There is lots of money in Ireland but people aren't spending.

Nijmegen

woodoo wrote: »

Try and stimulate people to spend money again. Its a bit of a waiting game confidence needs to return. Jobs are created by the spending and welfare will be reduced. Less welfare more tax before you know it we are at 6 billion deficit.

Cutting is just taking money out of the economy its not going to work.

There is no way out of this without getting the 22billion welfare costs down. Cutting welfare is not going to make a big difference. Getting people back to work will. There is lots of money in Ireland but people aren't spending.

The more you wait, the more you borrow, the more you pay out in interest, the more you need to cut to avoid increasing the deficit (let alone cut it.)

In 2011 Ireland paid €5.4bn to service the debt. In 2014 it will be €10.4bn. Borrow more, wait more, that'll get bigger... And bigger... And bigger...

Nermal

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

Nope - once again it's those least able to defend/represent themselves that are being lined up in the crosshairs.

On the contrary, all I hear is whining from pensioners, the unemployed and students. These groups are defending themselves extremely well, and the media are assisting them. The only people in the crosshairs are private-sector taxpayers.

Bullseye1

The people who have not been protected are those still working. There are less people working having to make up the deficit in tax shortfall. We cannot afford to pay the levels of social welfare and public sector spending. It's totally unrealistic to think this can continue.

_Kaiser_

Nermal wrote: »

On the contrary, all I hear is whining from pensioners, the unemployed and students. These groups are defending themselves extremely well, and the media are assisting them. The only people in the crosshairs are private-sector taxpayers.

Well as a private sector taxpayer who fall into that "average worker" bracket, I have to say it's not really that bad. Sure, things are tighter and I've had to cut back - but for the moment, I can still pay my rent, my car/commuting costs, utilities and so on.

Yes it means by week 3 of the month I'm usually fecked, but I can still afford a takeaway once/twice a week or so and my (subsidised) canteen lunch every day.

My point is that the private-sector taxpayer has (in reality) been let off fairly lightly so far really speaking and the cuts that have been enforced have been a lot less painful then they could be. Sure paying the USC is no fun but I can at least afford it! Try taking €150 off someone on the dole (or even the equivalent percentage) and it's a very different story.

Of course, I grew up in a time (the 80s) when there wasn't much money, I've been through personal/familial hard times financially and was even out of work for a year in recent times myself so I guess maybe I can see it from both sides.

While I agree everyone (who can) should make some contribution, I'd also argue that things like the VAT increases and utility rate hikes I referred to earlier hit someone on the dole or minimum wage a LOT harder than someone like myself. Also their "income" generally goes straight back into the domestic/local economy for the most part - not into savings or holiday funds like a lot of my colleagues and friends (and fair play to them I suppose!)

However, again - shifting the burden of responsibility for this debt (that shouldn't have been assigned to us in the first place) to those who have the least ability to pay while those at the very top are unscathed and the rest of us can still manage to live a fairly comfortable lifestyle (again in relative terms) is not only unfair, it's futile!

This "bailout" (the term itself even annoys me as it implies it was some sort of benevolent donation rather than the "save our own skins" effort it actually was) was never sustainable. FF knew this when they signed up to it, FG know this too.. but because we Irish are so conditioned to bow to our "masters"/"betters", our leaders will continue to agree to everything that's demanded of them by the Troika regardless of the cost (financially and socially) to our country.

The only question really is when will the house of cards finally collapse in on itself, and how much damage will have been done to Ireland when it happens.

woodoo

Bullseye1 wrote: »

The people who have not been protected are those still working. There are less people working having to make up the deficit in tax shortfall. We cannot afford to pay the levels of social welfare and public sector spending. It's totally unrealistic to think this can continue.

Put a figure on that. How much would you like to save from welfare and how much would you like to save from PS.

What effect would that have on the economy? Because each euro taken off the PS or welfare will not reduce our deficit by one euro.

View

woodoo wrote: »

Try and stimulate people to spend money again. Its a bit of a waiting game confidence needs to return. Jobs are created by the spending and welfare will be reduced. Less welfare more tax before you know it we are at 6 billion deficit.

Just to clarify? Are you saying we should borrow more money in order to go out and create those jobs (by spending it)? If so, who exactly is going to loan us the money to do this?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

woodoo

View wrote: »

Just to clarify? Are you saying we should borrow more money in order to go out and create those jobs (by spending it)? If so, who exactly is going to loan us the money to do this?

No people with money need to feel they can go out and spend. Right now everyone is hoarding because of austerity budgets and fear of more. People have billions in savings but nobody is spending.

johngalway

Raskolnikov wrote: »

and nurses and doctors will need to be fired

What's wrong, or unrealistic, with firing a few thousand pencil pushers instead of the useful staff mentioned above? I know which I'd rather be treated by.

thebman

johngalway wrote: »

What's wrong, or unrealistic, with firing a few thousand pencil pushers instead of the useful staff mentioned above? I know which I'd rather be treated by.

Like the latest recruitment fiasco that was on the last word today administered by the HSE admitted overstaffed HR department only a year or two ago.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/hse-hires-outside-help-despite-having-full-staff-2418470.html

http://www.irishexaminer.ie/ireland/doctor-crisis-just-15-of-270-recruits-in-system-166423.html

maninasia

Nijmegen wrote: »

The more you wait, the more you borrow, the more you pay out in interest, the more you need to cut to avoid increasing the deficit (let alone cut it.)

In 2011 Ireland paid €5.4bn to service the debt. In 2014 it will be €10.4bn. Borrow more, wait more, that'll get bigger... And bigger... And bigger...

I thought we all learned about compound interest in school, seem many folks deliberately ignore this. It's relatively okay if you are a huge country like the US which has a massive economy and can print it's own money, but Ireland doesn't have the luxury. We either do austerity properly now or later.

The cost of borrowing goes up the more it looks like you cannot pay it, until you become Greece.

maninasia

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

Well as a private sector taxpayer who fall into that "average worker" bracket, I have to say it's not really that bad. Sure, things are tighter and I've had to cut back - but for the moment, I can still pay my rent, my car/commuting costs, utilities and so on.

Yes it means by week 3 of the month I'm usually fecked, but I can still afford a takeaway once/twice a week or so and my (subsidised) canteen lunch every day.

My point is that the private-sector taxpayer has (in reality) been let off fairly lightly so far really speaking and the cuts that have been enforced have been a lot less painful then they could be. Sure paying the USC is no fun but I can at least afford it! Try taking €150 off someone on the dole (or even the equivalent percentage) and it's a very different story.

Of course, I grew up in a time (the 80s) when there wasn't much money, I've been through personal/familial hard times financially and was even out of work for a year in recent times myself so I guess maybe I can see it from both sides.

While I agree everyone (who can) should make some contribution, I'd also argue that things like the VAT increases and utility rate hikes I referred to earlier hit someone on the dole or minimum wage a LOT harder than someone like myself. Also their "income" generally goes straight back into the domestic/local economy for the most part - not into savings or holiday funds like a lot of my colleagues and friends (and fair play to them I suppose!)

However, again - shifting the burden of responsibility for this debt (that shouldn't have been assigned to us in the first place) to those who have the least ability to pay while those at the very top are unscathed and the rest of us can still manage to live a fairly comfortable lifestyle (again in relative terms) is not only unfair, it's futile!

This "bailout" (the term itself even annoys me as it implies it was some sort of benevolent donation rather than the "save our own skins" effort it actually was) was never sustainable. FF knew this when they signed up to it, FG know this too.. but because we Irish are so conditioned to bow to our "masters"/"betters", our leaders will continue to agree to everything that's demanded of them by the Troika regardless of the cost (financially and socially) to our country.

The only question really is when will the house of cards finally collapse in on itself, and how much damage will have been done to Ireland when it happens.

How did you completely ignore Nijmegen's post above. It spelled it out very clearly, the bank bailout and the current expenditure deficit are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.

It's also BS when pensioners and social welfare and public service have such high relative incomes to much richer neighbours in Europe. Yes all workers in Ireland should probably pay more tax but let's not have this poor mouth nonsense repeated constantly. The 'burden of debt' is not being paid for by the above, they are recipients of the debt i.e. borrowing!

It's so convenient to blame outside forces such as the IMF or the ECB for our predicament. Nobody forced the government to bailout the Irish banking sector, Ireland is a sovereign state. Nobody stopped you all parading and protesting for the two years for the Irish bank bailout to go into full effect. Nobody forces the recipients of borrowed money in Ireland to take the money. The Irish govt and Irish people should grow up and take responsibility for our own affairs. Take tough decisions when they need to be taken. As that hasn't happened and Irish people have shown no willingness to exert their own control and face the situation head-on Ireland is practically being run from Germany at the moment.

Tora Bora

Kavrocks wrote: »

Nobody but the Government can say whether or not we will hit the 3% target and even at that I'd doubt they could either.

I don't think we will unless their is a major overhaul of the political system and how TD's are voted in in the very near future.

This is where Angela Merkel, steps in, and drives a bulldozer through our democracy, as she did in Greece and more recently in Italy.
We get "Technocrat", in charge of our affairs like Mario Monti in Italy.

So, who do we have who could step in and be our Mario Monti?

Michael O Leary:D

Wider Road

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

No, they just voted Fianna Fáil for fourteen years. You reap what you sow.[/Quote]



Have you figures that back up your claim?

Dirk Gently

Raskolnikov wrote: »

The health budget in particular is out of control and we can no longer expect to continue to enjoy the health system that we have. Realistically hospitals would need to close and nurses and doctors will need to be fired, fudging about with a few paycuts just isn't going to cut it. Education also needs to be cut. Even though our class sizes are already the highest in Europe, we will need to start getting used to class sizes of over 30 becoming commonplace. .

and what will be the function of the state? Purely to bailout private losses by cutting and taxing people to subsistance levels? There reaches a point where cuts and taxes and relying on emigration of young unemployed workers reaches the point of diminishing returns. IMO we've passed that point already. The health system isn't particularly "joyous" as it is. I remember walking a girl down the road there a few months ago, there was something wrong with her legs which made it very difficult for her to walk. She asked me for a hand. took me 30 mins to walk her a few 100 feet down the road. she said she's on a waiting list for a wheel chair, she hopes to have one by july or august this year. I dont really think we need to be cutting any more in that area.

The conversation needs to shift at a european level as to who is expected to shoulder the burden for banking and financial misadventures. We need a mechanism to seperate the real economy from the financial sectors. Ordinary people dont just exist to be subserviant to and to guarantee speculation and short term profits in financial markets. There needs to be consequences to bad decisions in banking and by simply rolling over and accepting auestrity we're only encouraging it to happen again. lines need to be drawn. cut the waste by all means, but kill public services and private businesses in the process, no thanks. It's like paying the guy who burgled your house because he's burgled all the houses already and theres no more loot for him. lets tax the neighbourhood to keep his income up. It's not his fault he's a thief and has no useful trade with which to make an honest sustainable living.

Raskolnikov wrote: »

I am not even sure that kind of austerity would balance our books, perhaps we need to look at emergency income tax with the standard and higher rates both increasing by 10%.

clearly not. your plan is more austerity so you can chase your tail cutting more and wondering why every year you need more austerity (ironically see your thread title). If people have no disposable income, business dies, people are made unemployed and government ends up with less money, not to mention massive mortgage defaults from all the new unemployed you created (ohh look, more social welfare claims), which yes you guessed it, means plugging more holes in the banks. The debt figure is fixed plus interest, austerity prohibits our own ability to pay off that debt as mortgages dont reduce by a third when your pay packet does. It's a very delicate balancing act, particularly when in a soverign tight jacket as we currently are. meanwhile you're willing to let people die on trollys and kids come out of education thick as 2 planks in order to satisfy your macho austerity bias.

Sacrafice health and education and we no longer have a state, just a public debt collection agency for private speculaters. Universal health and protecting education and seperating it from religion are worthy goals to have in these times and I'm glad the government is at least limping along in that direction.

that turned into a bit of an incoherent rant, sorry about that, although given the thread thats in it....

murphaph

woodoo wrote: »

Jobs are created by the spending

Not good "quality" jobs that bring revenue into Ireland. The sort of jobs we want to create (export led manufacturing, R&D, software services etc.) have nothing to do with domestic demand as our economy is simply too small for that. The wrong sort of unsustainable jobs (construction, over dependency on retail etc.) are created with a "spend spend spend" set of policies. This is exactly what brought us to the brink in the first place!

woodoo

murphaph wrote: »

Not good "quality" jobs that bring revenue into Ireland. The sort of jobs we want to create (export led manufacturing, R&D, software services etc.) have nothing to do with domestic demand as our economy is simply too small for that. The wrong sort of unsustainable jobs (construction, over dependency on retail etc.) are created with a "spend spend spend" set of policies. This is exactly what brought us to the brink in the first place!

We have gone too far the other way not. Spening is a dirty word.

Any job that has people earning their own money and drawing less from welfare services will help greatly.

Nody

Tora Bora wrote: »

This is where Angela Merkel, steps in, and drives a bulldozer through our democracy, as she did in Greece and more recently in Italy.
We get "Technocrat", in charge of our affairs like Mario Monti in Italy.

So, who do we have who could step in and be our Mario Monti?

Michael O Leary:D

At least he'd be competent (what a novel idea...) and have big enough balls to take a union fight to sort it out...

woodoo wrote: »

We have gone too far the other way not. Spening is a dirty word.

Any job that has people earning their own money and drawing less from welfare services will help greatly.

It is already done (which so many Kenyan style people want to gloss over); it's called the 12.5 Billion borrowed every year to make the budget come up at +/- 0.

As for stopping to pay loans; well, enjoy a 50% cut in social wellfare and what not (hint, see what happened in Argentina and how long it took them to come back on the market again).

professore

I'll try to put this in terms that everyone can understand:

Think of Ireland as a married couple. He, a brickie, she a construction engineer. They buy a house in 2005 for 400,000 (the bank bailout). They have the latest plasma TVs, SUV, kids in Clongowes etc.

In 2008 she loses her job and he's reduced to part-time work. They then go to the moneylender (troika) and keep borrowing in order to keep up their lifestyle. The missus cuts down to 5 lattes a week instead of 7 and he cuts his golf outings back to 10 a year instead of 12 (austerity).

They get € 400 a week on the dole + €100 that he makes on nixers. They spend € 800 a week, €100 of which is related to their mortgage (bank bailout costs). The € 300 a week they borrow from the moneylender is the current account deficit. In order to reduce spending, he sells his tools that he uses for nixers for € 1000 (cutting the capital spend). However now he can't work so they are € 100 a month worse off going forward.

Down the road they are going to be 1 million in debt and no way of paying it, ever. Of course in the real world no-one would lend to this couple, which is why the bond markets won't touch us.

That's Ireland in a nutshell. The current account deficit is nothing to do with the banks.

I predict a default in 2013. In fact a default would be GOOD for us, as it would be for this couple. Again in real life they would be declared bankrupt and given a chance to eventually rebuild their lives.

Icepick

woodoo wrote: »

Try and stimulate people to spend money again. Its a bit of a waiting game confidence needs to return. Jobs are created by the spending and welfare will be reduced. Less welfare more tax before you know it we are at 6 billion deficit.

Cutting is just taking money out of the economy its not going to work.

There is no way out of this without getting the 22billion welfare costs down. Cutting welfare is not going to make a big difference. Getting people back to work will. There is lots of money in Ireland but people aren't spending.

It's time to realize that the Tiger-era levels of spending and associated tax intakes cannot return, because they were fuelled by bubble money. Money that we now have to pay back.
The retail sector cannot achieve the size it had before 2008. And if it did, it would just be another unsustainable bubble that would burst very fast.
There is about 90 to 100 billion of deposited cash. Let's say that all of this is spent to "help" the economy and about 60% of it eventually ends up in state's coffers. That would only pay our deficit for 4 years.
This bubble would lower the welfare bill and such, but would also let the gvt. waste money again so the gvt expenditure would not change that much.

femur61

Tora Bora wrote: »

This is where Angela Merkel, steps in, and drives a bulldozer through our democracy, as she did in Greece and more recently in Italy.
We get "Technocrat", in charge of our affairs like Mario Monti in Italy.

So, who do we have who could step in and be our Mario Monti?

Michael O Leary:D

At least if Merkel steps in she will stand up to the unions. We only not are paying back money to cover the bailout for the banks ,the country is in deficit, we have to borrow 20bn a year to pay SW and the PS . Due to CPA we can't have decreases in this area and inane promises made in the GE, so we have to find the money from somewhere.

woodoo

femur61 wrote: »

At least if Merkel steps in she will stand up to the unions. We only not are paying back money to cover the bailout for the banks ,the country is in deficit, we have to borrow 20bn a year to pay SW and the PS.

So if we are borrowing 20billion to pay for the PS and SW what are we borrowing to pay for the rest of the services and costs of running a country.

Are we borrowing 30billion 40 billion etc?