35/50 Evens Shots

Johnny86

Hi,
Tried a couple of logs in the past but going to keep this simpler.
The idea, as the title says, is to pick about 35 winners out of 50 that are around even money that i think are value. For a 10e stake on each bet if i hit the target that would give me a 200quid profit so lets see how it goes. Sports I'll be aiming at are everything and anything (soccer, racing, golf, GAA, NFL etc.).

Lets it begin so
1. Man City v Man U 11/10
Man City have a 100% record in the PL at home and won 2/3 at home in the CL also. Although missing the highly influential Yaya i think that odds against for Man City at home should be snapped up at nearly all times. The fact Scholesy has come out of retirement shows how desperate Utd are in midfield at the moment.

2. Peterbrough v Sunderland 10/11
Although its not been a good weekend for lower PL teams away from home in the FA Cup (i.e. for Bolton, QPR, Wigan), with O'Neill in charge i no longer put Sunderland in that category. In flying form I expect them to beat Peterbrough who have lost 4/10 home games in the Championship.

Johnny86

Onto the horses this time. With regards the G G's i usually read a lot of other blogs or tipsters and see if i agree with the case they make. On the starbets website i like the case that is made for two runners in Naas.

3. Flemenstar 1.10 Naas 10/11
His last run is very impressive and before that raced well against the good Bog Warrior who went off fav before falling on Stephens Day. Would appear to be just between him and the Mullins/Walsh horse Lambro.

4. Some Say 3.10 Naas 11/8
Just looks better than rest in a small runner race. Form of his last race is working out well too.

Johnny86

1. Not the best start to the log with Man City having Kompany sent off early on which changed the game completely. Thought they had started the game well even though the were 0-1 down. Match eventually finished 2-3 Utd.

2. Sunderland thankfully won with a good second half performance, eventually showing their class (McClean and Larrson especially) with a 2-0 win over the posh. Returns 19.09

3. Flemenstar drifted a little before the off and was the 6/5 2nd fav but he jumped well throughout and Lynch managed to get the better of the Mullins/Walsh horse Lambro. Returns 22e

4. Some Say just as in his previous race was up with the pace but failed to stay after the last hurdle. Traded as low as 1.20 on betfair but eventually was 3rd.

To hit the target i need to be getting about 3/4 so slightly behind already.

Wins: 2
Bets: 4

€40 Bet
€41.09 Returned

Johnny86

5. Rangitoto in 2.10 at Taunton 2/1
Backed him on Stephens Day and he duly obliged and fancy him to take the spoils again. See it as just between him and the day's market mover Master Fiddle which has ment a better price than expected.

Amigomenor

You using real money or is this just make believe!

Johnny86

Amigomenor wrote: »

You using real money or is this just make believe!

Yeah I'm using my real money. €10 on each bet so I'm down now after the last horse lost.

5. Rangitoto fell about 5 fences or so from home but wasn't travelling well at that stage and don't think he'd have won even if he stayed up. The market rival Master Fiddle also ran a poor race and was tailed off.

Johnny86

6. Roedean 19:10 Wolves 5/6 ..off in the next few mins

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

6. Roedean 19:10 Wolves 5/6 ..off in the next few mins

That was just a stupid bet..purely because it was the next race and i was bored. The horse is still a maiden after 10 attempts while the winner was a newcomer from a yard with an excellent record there. Will try to be a little more patient!!

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

That was just a stupid bet..purely because it was the next race and i was bored. .

Fair play for admitting that
Best of luck with your next few selections.

Johnny86

Typical, that Roedean horse won last night instead at the 7.00 at Wolverhampton at 9/2.

Onto some fancies for the weekend

7. Our Girl Salley 2.05 Ascot - The extended trip about this one my only concern but seemed to stay on well enough in the last race. Trainer isn't making the trip over for some fresh air. Worth taking at a price of 5/2

8. Finians Rainbow 15:10 Ascot - Impressed by the way he battled back after a horrendous mistake over Christmas to win, beating wishful thinking in the process. Plenty to fear in this race, especially the novice Al Ferof but opposing him for the fact he is a novice. 5/2 is best price

Johnny86

9. Liverpool play Bolton and I'm expecting Liverpool to win this with a clean sheet. They've been playing much better away from home all season and their defensive record is one of the best in the league. With Bolton having lost Cahill, Liverpool will hopefully be able to find the back of the net this afternoon. Liverpool win with a clean sheet is 17/10

10. Sunderland to beat Swansea at 10/11. Swansea have a poor enough away record this season, losing 6 of their 10 matches while Sunderland have had 2 wins and a draw at home since O'Neill took over. At Villa he made them particularly strong at home. I also think there will be the comedown after the high of beating Arsenal last week.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Typical, that Roedean horse won last night instead at the 7.00 at Wolverhampton at 9/2.

Onto some fancies for the weekend

7. Our Girl Salley 2.05 Ascot - The extended trip about this one my only concern but seemed to stay on well enough in the last race. Trainer isn't making the trip over for some fresh air. Worth taking at a price of 5/2

8. Finians Rainbow 15:10 Ascot - Impressed by the way he battled back after a horrendous mistake over Christmas to win, beating wishful thinking in the process. Plenty to fear in this race, especially the novice Al Ferof but opposing him for the fact he is a novice. 5/2 is best price

3rd place for Our Girl Salley, a ton of horses in with a chance 2 out and just didnt have the pace to go with the well backed Violin Davis who reversed the terms with Kentford Grey Lady

2nd place for Finians Rainbow, jumped well throughout and seemed to be going best but Somersby battled on and headed him in the last 100 yards or so.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

9. Liverpool play Bolton and I'm expecting Liverpool to win this with a clean sheet. ............

I've followed you on this, I put a tiny stake recouper on no goalscorer too, pricewise it looks more likely than the 17/10 suggests, best of luck

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

9. Liverpool play Bolton and I'm expecting Liverpool to win this with a clean sheet. They've been playing much better away from home all season and their defensive record is one of the best in the league. With Bolton having lost Cahill, Liverpool will hopefully be able to find the back of the net this afternoon. Liverpool win with a clean sheet is 17/10

10. Sunderland to beat Swansea at 10/11. Swansea have a poor enough away record this season, losing 6 of their 10 matches while Sunderland have had 2 wins and a draw at home since O'Neill took over. At Villa he made them particularly strong at home. I also think there will be the comedown after the high of beating Arsenal last week.

Liverpool were so bad, I've seen them a lot this season and that was by far the worst performance. Didn't even get a run for my money in this one with Bolton scoring after 3 mins!

At least Sunderland won 2-0 against Swansea. Swansea had plenty of the ball but O'Neill's team got the goals at key times.

Johnny86

To update things, they're not going great!

Wins: 3
Bets: 10

€100 Bet
€60.18 Returned

Johnny86

11. Man City v Tottenham, Man City win at 10/11
Although their form has been a little patchy of late, Man City do still boast a 100% home record in the Premier League and its a record I expect to be still intact after the early match on Sunday.
Tottenham are without Adebayor so thats one of the main goal threats for them gone. Biggest worry is the liability that is Savic are centre-back for Man City who was very poor against Liverpool in their recent Carling Cup game. The Premier League is their priority this year and expecting them to eek out a narrow win.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

11. Man City v Tottenham, Man City win at 10/11
Although their form has been a little patchy of late, Man City do still boast a 100% home record in the Premier League and its a record I expect to be still intact after the early match on Sunday.
Tottenham are without Adebayor so thats one of the main goal threats for them gone. Biggest worry is the liability that is Savic are centre-back for Man City who was very poor against Liverpool in their recent Carling Cup game. The Premier League is their priority this year and expecting them to eek out a narrow win.

Never in doubt really was it
After going 2-0 up I'd have considered it unlucky to lose this bet but in the end, due in no small part to the liability that is Savic, I'm quite lucky for for King to concede in the dying moments of the match. Sign of champions winning matches like that.

Johnny86

12. Real Madrid (-2) v Athletico Bilbao 7/5
Expecting a backlash from Madrid after losing to Barcelona during the week. Earlier in the year after they lost to them in the league, their next league match they won 6-2 at Sevilla.
Bilbao are going well in La Liga and have lost just 2/8 of their away games so far this season as well as almost beating Barcelona at home. It is their recent record against Madrid, especially at the Bernabeau which I find interesting however. Madrid have won 5-1 in the last 2 home league games against them and won 3-0 away last year too. For this reason I'm going for Madrid by 2 goals.

Johnny86

13. Whilst I don't know a whole lot about American Football, New England Patriots seem to be purring at the moment, especially for home games. They have a much better QB in Tom Brady and someone who has more experience of the big occasions. I'm therefore going for the Pats (-7pts) at 10/11. Apart from the Giants win over the Packers last weekend, its generally been solid wins for the home sides too.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

12. Real Madrid (-2) v Athletico Bilbao 7/5
Expecting a backlash from Madrid after losing to Barcelona during the week. Earlier in the year after they lost to them in the league, their next league match they won 6-2 at Sevilla.
Bilbao are going well in La Liga and have lost just 2/8 of their away games so far this season as well as almost beating Barcelona at home. It is their recent record against Madrid, especially at the Bernabeau which I find interesting however. Madrid have won 5-1 in the last 2 home league games against them and won 3-0 away last year too. For this reason I'm going for Madrid by 2 goals.

13. Whilst I don't know a whole lot about American Football, New England Patriots seem to be purring at the moment, especially for home games. They have a much better QB in Tom Brady and someone who has more experience of the big occasions. I'm therefore going for the Pats (-7pts) at 10/11. Apart from the Giants win over the Packers last weekend, its generally been solid wins for the home sides too.

The Real Madrid bet just about came with them beating Athletico Bilbao 4-1. They went 1-0 down and it was only level at half time. The turning point in terms of the bet was the sending off and penalty. Really was just a matter of time after until they added the necessary extra goal.

The Patriots were lucky winners in last nights match, winning 23-20. Baltimore dropped a touchdown pass in the last minute of the game and then the kicker missed a routine field goal to take it into overtime. The 3 pt win was no good for my bet however as i needed at least an eight point win.

The way the thread is going i think a slight change of target is necessary. Maybe 25/50 bets to come in. Often a lot of the bets will be in the 6/4 range anyway.
Wondering if anyone uses betdash too? Thinking of signing up.

Johnny86

14. Everton v Fulham 11/10
I'm backing Everton in this due to Fulhams poor away record more than anything else. Everton, so often in the league are a poor price at home but I quite fancy them to beat Fulham this evening. Everton have beat Fulham 2-1 in their last 2 home league games against them and a similar result tonight wouldn't be surprising.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

14. Everton v Fulham 11/10
I'm backing Everton in this due to Fulhams poor away record more than anything else. Everton, so often in the league are a poor price at home but I quite fancy them to beat Fulham this evening. Everton have beat Fulham 2-1 in their last 2 home league games against them and a similar result tonight wouldn't be surprising.

Everton come from behind to win 2-1 (pity I hadn't a small bit on correct score) and hopefully I'm getting this log back on track, the football bets in particular saving me (I'm 5/7 on those).

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

To update things, they're not going great!

Wins: 3
Bets: 10

€100 Bet
€60.18 Returned

Latest Update - Small improvement.

Wins: 6
Bets: 14

€140 Bet
€124.27 Returned

Johnny86

Two Horses at Taunton tomorrow

15. Sanctuaire 8/11 14.40
He is a reasonably good horse over hurdles and if he can bring any sort of form over fences then he should be good enough to beat what he's up against here, especially considering he is receiving 7lbs from the market rival.

16. Ted Spread 5/2 15.10
The fact he was 2nd to the very good Grumeti in his latest start is the reason for the pick here. He went off favourite so must be highly respected and i think this is a good price. Ifyouletmefinish was behind him that day too.

Johnny86

Johnny86 wrote: »

Two Horses at Taunton tomorrow

15. Sanctuaire 8/11 14.40
He is a reasonably good horse over hurdles and if he can bring any sort of form over fences then he should be good enough to beat what he's up against here, especially considering he is receiving 7lbs from the market rival.

16. Ted Spread 5/2 15.10
The fact he was 2nd to the very good Grumeti in his latest start is the reason for the pick here. He went off favourite so must be highly respected and i think this is a good price. Ifyouletmefinish was behind him that day too.

2 winners there which is just lovely...Sanctuaire went off at 13/8 (I'm going to take that price for my log, I bet with Paddys so I get the better SP). Didnt see the race but looks like Ruby went well clear from the start and was never caught.
Ted Spread went off at 5/4, which is probably due to the two Non-runners in the race. He won quite easily with Ruby on the bridle jumping over the last.

Johnny86

Latest Update - Big improvement, actually in profit now.

Wins: 8
Bets: 16

€160 Bet
€185.52 Returned

Johnny86

17. Royal Bonsai 9/4 16.20 Wolverhampton
He is entered in a grade 1 juvenile hurdle in Leopardstown for the weekend after next so must be well thought of. His previous effort on the AW was probably too short for him when he finished 3rd.