even Higher fuel prices ahead!

Stinicker

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-price-skyrocket-iran-closed-142205272.html

I watch the markets close enough and there is alot of talk about War on Iran at the moment. Back in 2003 G.W Bush went after Saddam and American patriotism saw him elected. Obama is very much embattled over there at the moment and for the Americans to attack Iran would not surprise me as they are no gone out of Iraq now and the uplift of support would re-elect Obama whilst securing the Iranian wells.

This is my own geopolitical take on it.

Now the US$ has gained 6% over the Euro in the last 2months as the ECB and EU struggles to draw fuel to the generator keeping the Euro life support machine running. We must now pay far more Euros to buy Dollars for to buy Oil with it. The Euro is on a downward spiral and this will only get worse and $130/$140 oil will be costing us far more than the peaks of 2008 when the strong Euro offset record oil prices.

We are at around €1.53-€1.55/litre now and I can see this climbing above €1.60/litre very shortly and rocketing up to €1.70/90 if any shots are fired in the gulf.

We ain't seen nothing yet and there is a lot of pain to come to motorists in this country within the next 5-6 months.

Voodoomelon

That aside, I was just thinking the other day that petrol will probably never be as cheap as it is right now. If at 2030 we are near depletion of crude, we're pretty much snookered.
It can only go up from now on.

Atlantic Dawn

The best solution would be for the EU to buy their oil direct from Iran in Euro's this would stabilise the price better. The current boycott of Iranian oil is only driving up the price too as the market needs this missing stock sourced from existing supplies.

As things are I can see if go €2 a litre within a week of a shot being fired in the Straits. I think a land war with Iran would go on for far longer than the initial Gulf War in 1990 and be far more bloody, the Iranians have far more matched technology than the Saddam had. Electric cars may not seem so expensive after all.

coylemj

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I think a land war with Iran would go on for far longer than the initial Gulf War in 1990 and be far more bloody

There won't be a land war. If there is any kind of conflict it will be fought in the air by carrier-based USAF planes (assisted by a few cruise missiles) whose brief will be to keep the Straits of Hormuz open for shipping, especially the tankers.

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

the Iranians have far more matched technology than the Saddam had.

Didn't do them much good in the Iran-Iraq war which dragged on for years and ended in stalemate.

Atlantic Dawn

coylemj wrote: »

There won't be a land war. If there is any kind of conflict it will be fought in the air by carrier-based USAF planes (assisted by a few cruise missiles) whose brief will be to keep the Straits of Hormuz open for shipping, especially the tankers.

Didn't do them much good in the Iran-Iraq war which dragged on for years and ended in stalemate.

Back then both their technologies was limited to old Soviet junk they flogged to them, they now have developed their own weapons.

If the Iranians stick a couple of thousand mines in the sea it will make navigation impossible for months.

coylemj

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

If the Iranians stick a couple of thousand mines in the sea it will make navigation impossible for months.

A couple of weeks max., these guys can quickly do a cleanup...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mine_countermeasure_vessels_of_the_Royal_Navy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mine_warfare_vessels_of_the_United_States_Navy

alias no.9

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The best solution would be for the EU to buy their oil direct from Iran in Euro's this would stabilise the price better. The current boycott of Iranian oil is only driving up the price too as the market needs this missing stock sourced from existing supplies.

Shortly before Sadam was taken down, he started trading his oil in Euros.
Shortly before Gadaffi was taken down, he started trading his oil in Euros.
The Euro is now under attack so it's unlikely any other upstarts will trade their oil in Euro.

[readies tinfoil hat for immediate deployment]

heate

The switch to Euro as an oil currency would certainly make an impact on the dollar and I believe the American's have 'acted' on this basis.
Petrodollars - Petroeuro doesn't roll off the tongue nicely!