Your Top 3 Predictions For 2012

SyntonFenix

1. Physical gold price to hit €2000 by July 2012
2. House prices in Dublin to fall, on average, 70% of previous highs (year end)
3. Massive run on a major Irish bank (by year end)

To give you a hand:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QJ9ZEXm2aAM

Soulja boy

Crude Oil will approach 300 dollars a barrel.
Another too "Too big to fail" Bank will knock the majority of world into recession again.
The vast majority of UK stocks will slump in september.

AngryHippie

Crude Price increases by 10-15%
Food Price inceases by 15-20%
Climatic anomalies reduce global food output.

yobr

Soulja boy wrote: »

The vast majority of UK stocks will slump in september.

Why September?

Soulja boy

The three predictions are all scaremongering I've seen corresponding to;

A war in Iran closing the bay of Oman,
The US presidential election
The end of the Olympic games in august.

pacquiao

China to tear down the firewall.
People angry about Ron Paul not winning the nomination to be put into camps.
iran to move to some sort of gold standard

shangri la

1. Europe to fall back into recession, more than likely in the first 6 months due to failure of a major bank bringing the system down, most likely a spanish bank and will also result in euro wide ban on shorting financial shares.

2. House prices to fall 30-40% from year end 2011 as this will be the year that the market well and truely decends into the toilet due to increased transparency with the biggest decreases seen in the last quarter and the first quarter of '13. The average price in the midlands for a 3 bed semi to hit 60k. A large part of this will be due to emigration figures to top 300k and a combination of all the new taxes levied on homeowners and increased fear that we are not far off a devalued punt nua. There will be a deduction in the rent supplement and nama properties used as social housing resulting in savage reductions in rent, mainly in dublin.

3. Partial default starting with the bondholders.

Lanaier

pacquiao wrote: »

China to tear down the firewall.

Not a chance.

Would be nice though.

People in the west still think the GFW and it's ilk is all about repression of free-speech etc.
The great firewall is just a mechanism to stifle western competition's chances at tapping the Chinese market.

As long as business here is done in the cut-throat manner that it currently is the GFW will remain in one form or another, ie: for the foreseeable future.

saywhatyousee

Gold over 2000 an ounce
Wheat up 30-40%
Now this is my super tip for the year i think silver will sky rocket over 100 per ounce.I think the whole world is headed for a gold and silver backed currency in the next few years fiat currency is as dead as a dodo

coylemj

Cheryl Cole back on X-Factor
Sarah Palin to be exposed as the Antichrist
Greece to be kicked out of the Euro

OfflerCrocGod

coylemj wrote: »

Cheryl Cole back on X-Factor
Sarah Palin to be exposed as the Antichrist
Greece to be kicked out of the Euro

Can I gain exposure to your predictions through an ETF or fund? The Palin one sounds like a sure bet!

Joe the Plumber

shangri la wrote: »

1. Europe to fall back into recession, more than likely in the first 6 months due to failure of a major bank bringing the system down, most likely a spanish bank and will also result in euro wide ban on shorting financial shares.

2. House prices to fall 30-40% from year end 2011 as this will be the year that the market well and truely decends into the toilet due to increased transparency with the biggest decreases seen in the last quarter and the first quarter of '13. The average price in the midlands for a 3 bed semi to hit 60k. A large part of this will be due to emigration figures to top 300k and a combination of all the new taxes levied on homeowners and increased fear that we are not far off a devalued punt nua. There will be a deduction in the rent supplement and nama properties used as social housing resulting in savage reductions in rent, mainly in dublin.


3. Partial default starting with the bondholders.

You might not be too far out on 1 + 3 but way off on 2.

House prices will actually increase this year.

Why? currently houses are being sold below cost. this is unstainable and the stock is being eaten up over the last few years. forget the remote villages with a million empty houses, they will never be worth anything.

This year will bring house prices back to a stainable level where they can be produced for to meet new demand which in a normal situation is about 5% of your housing p.a.

will post my own predictions soon.

To Alcohol

Soulja boy wrote: »

Crude Oil will approach 300 dollars a barrel.
Another too "Too big to fail" Bank will knock the majority of world into recession again.
The vast majority of UK stocks will slump in september.

I predict that bank to be Bank of America.

lopppy

1) EUR/USD to hit 1.20, resulting in Bernanke getting the printing presses going

2) Spanish bail-out of Santander

3) Rick Santorum to become US president.


A rise in Energy and Paper prices (from Bible sales) resulting from 1 and 3 above

shangri la

Who is going to buy the houses in order for prices to stabilise?

Banks wont lend to eachother nevermind people with little job security or no job at all. People would need at least 20% for deposit and most people have hit their savings that they no longer have this available. The rumoured nama mortgages? Pffft! A generation of first time buyers are emigrating.

houses may be going under the hammer for below cost but that is due to crazy site prices and builders charging mad money for price work. Thats like the logic, its half the peak price so its a good deal. Its half a fantasy credit driven price not based on any tangible criteria. The only thing that matters is supply and demand and the supply will increase over the next 3 years when owners cant keep the wolf from the door any longer when rents inevitably fall and they cant cover the extra on the mortgage payments. Its not the developers that will be the biggest hit when we look back, it will be the breaking of the average person who took out the second mortgage to provide for retirement. That group has yet to fully implode.

if (when) we revert to the punt (germany wont risk their economy to protect the euro) it will be devalued, inflation will occur, interest rates may very well top 10%, people will lose their trackers, croke park agreement will be scraped. You stress test this group of people and you will see how the market has a long way to go before the bottom is reached.

SyntonFenix

SyntonFenix wrote: »

1. Physical gold price to hit €2000 by July 2012
2. House prices in Dublin to fall, on average, 70% of previous highs (year end)
3. Massive run on a major Irish bank (by year end)

2. House prices in Dublin to fall, on average, 70% of previous highs (year end)
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2012/01/18/expect-house-prices-to-hit-the-bottom-next-year?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=expect-house-prices-to-hit-the-bottom-next-year

SyntonFenix

SyntonFenix wrote: »

2. House prices in Dublin to fall, on average, 70% of previous highs (year end)

http://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/freefall-in-property-prices-to-continue-say-experts-2998922.html

63% fall this year from 2007 prices, according to the economist mentioned in the link above.

Tech3

Gold to plummet
House prices to fall 10%

and finally

End of the world December 21st 2012

tashiusclay

Sound, thats the dreaded xmas shopping out the window anyway, thank god

Joe the Plumber

1. Petrol to hit € 2.00/ltr
2. House prices to rise marginally in key areas.
3. Obama to be re-elected.

SyntonFenix

3. Massive run on a major Irish bank (by year end)

Looking ever more likely.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/fears-of-bank-runs-increase-in-europe-a-833879.html

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8b954e82-a4db-11e1-9a94-00144feabdc0.html

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/olympic_run_and_bank_runs_EdUAhtWq2WGnWpkUNrYsxL

euroboom13

1)speculative boom in european assets
2)long over due china decline with capital flows to the stronge new super currency "euro"
3)strenghtened possition on all european based banks
4)end of non stop propagada from u.k. and u.s. to force europe into Q.E.

What dosent kill the euro in these months will only strenghten the EURO...

cheap euro makes interesting investment op that are being taken up behide the scenes....all this negativety is taking the eye off the ball

The currency that agree`s to Q.E. last wins...(Uk are pulling there hair out)

martyoo

3. Massive run on a major Irish bank (by year end)

You were wrong about Gold and more than likely you will be wrong about this too! (thankfully)

SyntonFenix

1. Physical gold price to hit €2000 by July 2012
2. House prices in Dublin to fall, on average, 70% of previous highs (year end)
3. Massive run on a major Irish bank (by year end)

It's May, so I'm not wrong yet.

And I agree about the third prediction, I hope I'm wrong on an Irish bank run.

SyntonFenix

2. House prices in Dublin to fall, on average, 70% of previous highs (year end)

http://blogs.myhome.ie/2012/05/04/bottom-of-housing-market-not-yet-reached-insist-davys/

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/business/davy-house-prices-could-fall-by-70-from-peak-543662.html

http://www.businessandleadership.com/news/item/34323-house-prices-will-continue

OfflerCrocGod

They haven't fallen 70%, the article says they think they *could* fall 70%, I think it will be a 60% drop so we are not too far from that point right now.

For prices to drop from a 60% fall all the way to 70% a drop would require a further 25% drop in prices. That seems utterly mad to me, we would have some of the cheapest housing stock in Europe, even including Eastern Europe. Literally a screaming buy.