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Opinions on market

  • 02-01-2012 4:23am
    #1
    shangri la
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭


    Paddy power offer a match & total goals double market on the major european and internationals football matches

    it is split 3 ways

    -team x to win and 1 or 2 total goals
    -team x to win and 3 or 4 total goals
    -team x to win and 5 or more total goals

    what is the opinion on the profitibilty of this market?

    the first option covers 2 correct scores
    the second option covers 4 correct scores
    the third covers all remaining correct scores

    is this too restrictive to realistically predict?


Comments

  • #2
    DB74
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    My immediate thought is that any market involving predicting the correct score (or any similar derivative) is a bookie's benefit

    It all depends on price though

    Can you post a link to a sample market so I can have a look at the prices


  • #3
    shangri la
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭shangri la


    Tottenham to win and 1 or 2 total goals in the match 11/4

    Tottenham to win and 3 or 4 total goals in the match 15/8

    Tottenham to win and 5 or more total goals in the match 4/1


    West Brom to win and 1 or 2 total goals in the match 17/1

    West Brom to win and 3 or 4 total goals in the match 17/1

    West Brom to win and 5 or more total goals in the match 40/1


  • #4
    shangri la
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭shangri la


    Tottenham to win and 3 or 4 total goals has been very profitable for me so far this season.

    15/8 is the shortest odds I have seen for this, it is generally 5/2, 3/1.


  • #5
    DB74
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 559 ✭✭✭DB74


    Yeah I wouldn't be fantastically thrilled about it personally but fair play if you're making it pay

    In some cases you might be better just dutching the 2 scores or the 4 scores individually because you could get better odds if you shop around

    Backing the 3 options you gave gives an effective "Spurs to win the match" price of 1.22 (roughly 2/9) but they are freely available at 4/11 to win outright which straight away tells you that Paddy is creaming a bit here

    You can dutch 1-0 and 2-0 at about 3.20/1 using BF prices so the 11/4 is a rip-off

    Ironically the 15/8 is a better price than dutching the 4 correct scores (which is 1.83/1 using best prices)


  • #6
    shangri la
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭shangri la


    I wouldn't bet the under 1 or 2 goals as I never like betting on a team to keep a clean sheet.


    I haven't looked into it too much, paddy is the more "interesting" bets account. I have two rules, singles only and if I cant price it up I don't bet it.

    I'm more interested in the team x to win and over 2.5 goals market offered by bet365 and william hill as I don't like to be betting on too restrictive a margin.

    Bet365 have tottenham to win and over 2.5 goals @ 1.83.


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