I Lay 0-0's

ILikeBananas

New Year! Time for a challenge.

I will be selecting football matches from the top 4 English divisions as well as the SPL and laying the scoreless draw. My criteria for selecting suitable games are quite simple:

1. I won't be offering odds of over 20/1 (I am confident that my average will be less than 15/1)
2. There are a number of teams in each division who I will never be selecting, based on their previous results (e.g. Swansea in the PL and Stevenage in League 1)
3. There is also a small number of teams who I try and select based on their past results.

For the most part I'll be wagering near the minimum amount. This isn't a money making scheme for me, just a game really. With something like this the short term variance can be cruel so I wouldn't enjoy the stress of having considerable sums of money on it.

My goal is to pick 19 successful results for every unsuccessful result that I choose. Currently the number of scoreless draws per overall games lies between 1 in 9 and 1 in 16 depending on which division you choose. Therefore I can only reach my goal through careful selection.

Feel free to join in but naturally I cannot be blamed for any losses incurred as a result of my selections.

I will try my best to post my selection prior to kickoff but only after they have been matched.

I will edit my posts, after the matches have finished, so as to include the outcomes

ILikeBananas

1. Sunderland v Man City E2.50 @ 15.5/1

(Matched this last night but you can get it at around 13/1 now)

Won: final score 1-0 +E2.37

JohnMagic

that was close

ILikeBananas

JohnMagic wrote: »

that was close

Tell me about it-Almost a nightmare start but god bless that 94th minute offside winner!

Two games for tomorrow:

2. QPR v Norwich E2 @ 12/1 (1-2) +E1.90
3. Leeds v Burnley E2.50 @ 12/1 (2-1) +E2.37

ILikeBananas

Two more for tomorrow:

4. Crewe Alexandra v Morecambe E2.12 @ 12.5/1 (0-1) +E2.01
5. Oxford Utd v Crawley Town E2 @ 13/1 (1-1) +E1.90

ILikeBananas

Just one for tomorrow:

6. Tottenham v West Brom E2 @ 18/1 (1-0) +E1.90

ILikeBananas

So far so good, next up:

7. Everton v Bolton E2 @ 12/1 (1-2) +E1.90
8. Newcastle v Man Utd E2 @ 12.5/1 (3-0) +E1.90

ILikeBananas

Two so far for tomorrow:

9. Crewe v Plymouth E2 @ 13/1
10. Southend v Port Vale E2 @ 12/1

ILikeBananas

One for tonight:

11. Wycombe v Huddersfield E2 @ 14/1 (0-6) +E1.90

L'prof

Good work so far, will your stakes increase eventually as your bank does?

Markgc

Good job. What site do you use for this??

ILikeBananas

L'prof wrote: »

Good work so far, will your stakes increase eventually as your bank does?

Cheers! Yes definitely but for the time being I'd prefer to make multiple smaller bets rather than fewer larger bets as this makes it easier for me to absorb the losses when they do occur. Right now I can make roughly 4 bets at once (at the E2 level) and I'd like to get that up to maybe 6 before I'd increase the stakes. If I see any good value bets in the mean-time though I'll make slightly larger bets.

Markgc wrote: »

Good job. What site do you use for this??

Thanks! I use Betfair. I only started to use it in November and I think it's pretty good for sports betting and obviously the laying feature adds a new dimension to things. I'm a bit geeky so I love the way that you can see the dynamics of the particular markets and the volume of money on each price and the way the equilibrium point changes.

ILikeBananas

One more for tomorrow:

12. Morecambe v Northampton E2 @ 13.5/1 (1-2) +E1.90

L'prof

ILikeBananas wrote: »

Cheers! Yes definitely but for the time being I'd prefer to make multiple smaller bets rather than fewer larger bets as this makes it easier for me to absorb the losses when they do occur. Right now I can make roughly 4 bets at once (at the E2 level) and I'd like to get that up to maybe 6 before I'd increase the stakes. If I see any good value bets in the mean-time though I'll make slightly larger bets.

Definitely, if it were me I'd probably try to at least double my bank before increasing, but first time round maybe treble it.

ILikeBananas

ILikeBananas wrote: »

Two so far for tomorrow:

9. Crewe v Plymouth E2 @ 13/1 (3-2) +E1.90
10. Southend v Port Vale E2 @ 12/1 (3-0) +E1.90

the edit time period for that message expired

ILikeBananas

Two matches for Wednesday night:

13. Spurs v Everton E2 @ 12.5/1
14. Birmingham v Ipswich E2 @ 12/1

ILikeBananas

Amigomenor wrote: »

Destined to go bust when a 0 -0 comes in. Next post please.

I'd need to hit 4 of them in quick succession to go bust with my present bankroll.

I will hit a 0-0 in the future. My target is to make sure that I only hit them 5% of the time though.

FOXFISH1

ILikeBananas wrote: »

Just one for tomorrow:

6. Tottenham v West Brom E2 @ 18/1 (1-0) +E1.90

Nice thread ILB,
can you explain how the stake works, ie did you bet 2eu or 1.90eu?
and why do you write it like '+E1.90' , this looks like you've made E1.90 profit?
sry for being a little dim here

finbarrk

Betfair commission I presume.

ILikeBananas

Yes, it's the commission. Betfair operates as an exchange so sets up backers with layers and then charges whoever wins the bet 5% on their winnings. So, if I lay a match @ 10/1 and set a E2 stake Betfair will either win 5% from my winnings (5% of E2 = 10c) or 5% from the backer's winnings (5% of E20 = E1) depending on the outcome of the wager.

bradlente

Interesting system,Good luck with it.

FOXFISH1

ILikeBananas wrote: »

Yes, it's the commission. Betfair operates as an exchange so sets up backers with layers and then charges whoever wins the bet 5% on their winnings. So, if I lay a match @ 10/1 and set a E2 stake Betfair will either win 5% from my winnings (5% of E2 = 10c) or 5% from the backer's winnings (5% of E20 = E1) depending on the outcome of the wager.

Ah i see... so if the result in this case was 0-0 you'd lose 10xE2=E20 ?

ILikeBananas

FOXFISH1 wrote: »

Ah i see... so if the result in this case was 0-0 you'd lose 10xE2=E20 ?

Exactly! And therein lies the trouble with this system. The vast majority of the time I will be winning but when I do lose it costs me a lot.

ILikeBananas

ILikeBananas wrote: »

Two matches for Wednesday night:

13. Spurs v Everton E2 @ 12.5/1 (2-0) +E1.90
14. Birmingham v Ipswich E2 @ 12/1 (2-1) +E1.90

.

ILikeBananas

So far, so good: 14 out of 14. However, I feel it only fair to point out that there hasn't been a single 0-0 draw in any of the major leagues so far in 2012 (long may it continue )

L'prof

ILikeBananas wrote: »

So far, so good: 14 out of 14. However, I feel it only fair to point out that there hasn't been a single 0-0 draw in any of the major leagues so far in 2012 (long may it continue )

Started something similar, but I'm impatient so my first bet was a lay double that won €1.90, second bet is a lay 8-fold to win €11. Only risking €20 on each bet.

bradlente

Any developments?Was thinking of trying this myself.

ILikeBananas

bradlente wrote: »

Any developments?Was thinking of trying this myself.

Yeah sorry got lazy and stopped updating. I won 21 in a row and then got destroyed last week. Got caught for:

Norwich v Chelsea, Burnley v Derby and Notts Cunty v Preston all within three days.

So basically, at that point I had won 26 and lost 3 so I'd taken in just over E50 but those 3 losses cost me E83.

So yeah it's 10 steps forward 12 back.